Friday, January 17, 2020
Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 47
1 Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-6-626637
U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging higher on Friday, grinding higher for a third day out of four. Despite what looks like to be a counter-trend bottoming process, the market is still trading lower for the week. However, it’s still in a position to turn higher if it continues to strengthen throughout the session.
2 EIA expects lower natural gas prices in 2020 as production outpaces demand
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42496
In its January 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that average U.S. natural gas prices will be 9% lower in 2020 than in 2019. EIA expects lower natural gas prices will be the result of continued production growth primarily in response to the following factors:
3 Weekly resin report: Middle-East tensions, depleted inventories spur buying surge
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-middle-east-tensions-depleted-inventories-spur-buying-surge/51958920762223
Spot resin trading began the new year with a heavy flow of orders from both buyers and sellers, generating a high volume of completed transactions. The marketplace was spooked by military conflict in the Middle East, encouraging domestic buyers to secure additional material as a supply buffer, reports the PlasticsExchange (Chicago) in its weekly Market Update.
4 US-China Phase One Trade Deal Reaction
https://www.rigzone.com/news/uschina_phase_one_trade_deal_reaction-16-jan-2020-160814-article/
Mike Sommers, the president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, has described the phase one trade deal reached between the United States and China as “a positive step forward” but highlighted that “there’s more work to be done”.
5 Wood Mackenzie comments on US-China Phase 1 trade agreement
https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/16012020/wood-mackenzie-comments-on-us-china-phase-1-trade-agreement/
“Let’s be clear; US$52.4 billion over two years is a lot of energy. But neither the 5% tariff on US crude oil nor the 25% tariff on US LNG is to be reduced or removed by China under the Phase 1 deal. For China to massively increase imports of oil and LNG from the US while tariffs remain in place is going to be challenging.
6 Reading the tea leaves: China and commodities in 2020
https://blogs.platts.com/2020/01/16/china-and-commodities-in-2020/
China’s voracious demand for commodities and energy continued unabated in 2019 despite a slowing economy and uncertain external environment.
But what will be on the agenda in 2020 as the economy, environment and energy security come into greater focus? Here are are some key trends to watch over the coming year and what they mean for commodities.
7 OPEC expects lower demand for its oil as U.S. hits new milestone
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-idUSKBN1ZE1KG
OPEC expects lower demand for its crude oil in 2020 even as global demand rises, it said on Wednesday, as rival producers grab market share and the United States looks set for another output record.
8 Oil ends higher, as trade deal progress spurs energy demand hopes
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN1ZF05Q
il rose about 1% on Thursday, as progress on another major trade deal fed optimism that energy demand will grow in 2020, which offset bearish market comments from the International Energy Agency.
9 Oil Glut Overshadows Geopolitical Risk In 2020
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Glut-Overshadows-Geopolitical-Risk-In-2020.html
In its January Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that there is plenty of oil sloshing around, despite the U.S. and Iran nearly going to war. “We cannot know how the geopolitical situation will play out over time, but for now the risk of a major threat to oil supplies appears to have receded,” the IEA said. “As was the case following the attacks on Saudi Arabia in September, once the initial fears of a sustained supply shock subsided, the Brent price rapidly gave up its $4/bbl spike.”
10 Offshore investment to bolster Middle East oil and gas supply ambition
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/offshore-investment-to-bolster-middle-east-oil-and-gas-supply-ambition/
The most bountiful petroleum plays in the Middle East may no longer be storied gushers from the past but more technical offshore areas. The most recent hydrocarbon production boom is underway in the Middle East, and this time, the race is spilling into offshore waters.
11 Oil Heads for Weekly Drop Amid Demand Concerns
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_heads_for_weekly_drop_amid_demand_concerns-17-jan-2020-160824-article/
Oil held its biggest gain in almost two weeks on optimism a more conciliatory approach on trade from the U.S. will help revive growth, but was still headed for a weekly drop amid persistent demand concerns.
12 Heavy Crude Freezing Solid in Western Canada
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/heavy_crude_freezing_solid_in_western_canada-16-jan-2020-160813-article/
Temperatures of -30 degrees Celsius (-22 Fahrenheit) and lower have descended on Alberta and Saskatchewan — cold enough to render the region’s viscous oil rock solid. To transport it, producers must blend in more of a lighter crude called condensate, thereby reducing the volume that can be shipped by pipeline and increasing transportation costs, according to Kevin Birn, IHS Markit’s director of North American crude oil markets.
13 U.S. natural gas exports to grow with new LNG capacity start-ups
https://www.lngworldnews.com/u-s-natural-gas-exports-to-grow-with-new-lng-capacity-start-ups/
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA said net natural gas exports are forecast to average 7.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020 and 8.9 Bcf/d in 2021, a 3.6 Bcf/d increase from 2019. In 2017, the United States became a net natural gas exporter on an annual basis for the first time in 60 years.
14 U.S. firm GIP, Shell-Cosan venture plan to bid on Brazil refineries- sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-petrobras-divestiture-refineries-excl-idUSKBN1ZF1Z1
U.S.-based financial firm Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) is planning a joint bid with Brazil’s fuel distribution company Raízen for refineries put on the block by Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4.SA), two sources with knowledge of the matter said.
15 Sinopec to review potential $16 billion U.S. gas deal with Cheniere – sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-sinopec-cheniere-lng-exclusive-idUSKBN1ZG1DL
China’s Sinopec, expected to be the next major Chinese buyer of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), is planning to review terms of a potential $16 billion supply deal with Cheniere Energy after a sharp drop in LNG prices, industry officials said.
16 IEA Says Iraq Oil Supplies Vulnerable
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/iea_says_iraq_oil_supplies_vulnerable-16-jan-2020-160816-article/
Oil supplies from Iraq, the Middle East’s second-biggest producer, are “potentially vulnerable” amid rising political risks in the country and the broader region, the International Energy Agency warned.
17 Just How Serious Is The Shale Slowdown?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Just-How-Serious-Is-The-Shale-Slowdown.html
The EIA says that U.S. shale growth will slow down this year, but the agency still has growth at a rather optimistic 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), putting the annual 2020 average at 13.3 mb/d. The agency does see a more dramatic slowdown in 2021, with growth of just 0.4 mb/d.
18 Supplies of IMO compliant shipping fuels rising fast: IEA
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iea-imo-idUSKBN1ZF143
Global supplies of marine fuel compliant with new environmental rules are increasing fast as concerns over quality remain marginal, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.
19 A surge of new plastic production is on the way
https://www.greenbiz.com/article/surge-new-plastic-production-way
As public concern about plastic pollution rises, consumers are reaching for canvas bags, metal straws and reusable water bottles. But while individuals fret over images of oceanic garbage gyres, the fossil fuel and petrochemical industries are pouring billions of dollars into new plants intended to make millions more tons of plastic than they now pump out.
20 2020 could mark start of downcycle for China’s petrochemical industry
https://www.britishplastics.co.uk/News/2020-could-marks-start-of-downcycle-for-china%E2%80%99s-petrochemica/
Wood Mackenzie has published a report predicting the start of a downcycle in China’s petrochemical industry.
21 Keystone XL Inches Forward
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/keystone_xl_inches_forward-15-jan-2020-160806-article/
TC Energy Corp. plans to begin pre-construction work on the Keystone XL oil pipeline next month, moving the long-delayed project forward even as opponents continue to fight it in court.
22 Factbox: Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC attracts billions from foreign investors
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emirates-adnoc-strategy-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE16Z
Over the past three years, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has expanded its oil and gas business and quietly raised more than $19 billion in a variety of ways.
23 The future of natural gas in North America
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/the-future-of-natural-gas-in-north-america
Industry discussions about the future of gas in North America are polarizing. On one hand, the shale revolution keeps delivering, displacing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports since the late 2000s, as abundant gas resources and technological innovation drove costs down. In the past few years, shale has entered a new phase with the rise of LNG exports from North America.
