Friday, October 11, 2019
Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 33
1 World Chemical Outlook 2019: Around the globe
https://cen.acs.org/business/World-Chemical-Outlook-2019-Around-the-globe/97/i2
Economists writing about 2018 already sound a bit wistful. Last year, the global economy grew 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund, and the US enjoyed an extraordinary time of growth and job creation. But this year, growth in the US is expected to slow to 2.5%, down from 3.5% in 2018. The story is the same for other advanced economies, according to IMF projections. And China’s growth rate will continue falling back to earth, moving to 6.2% from 6.6%.
2 Tables have turned
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/tables-have-turned/
As investments in tight oil increased from 2016 to 2018 and offshore investments decreased, tight oil investments almost reached the same level as offshore in 2018. However, in 2019 the table has turned. Now offshore investments are on the rise again, while tight oil has started to decline.
3 Oilfield Services Eyeing Survival Tactics in Weak US Market
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oilfield_services_eyeing_survival_tactics_in_weak_us_market-11-oct-2019-160033-article/
Last time crude prices crashed, E&P companies cut operations and investment, with knock-on effects on oilfield service contractors, many of whom reduced headcount, went bankrupt or merged. Once again, history is repeating itself. Baker Hughes September U.S. rig count saw just 898 active rigs, a reduction of 150 from this time last year.
4 EIA Sharply Cuts Oil Price Forecast
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/EIA-Sharply-Cuts-Oil-Price-Forecast.html
The EIA has revised downward again its oil price forecast in October’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), shaving another $5 per barrel off its forecast compared to last month’s STEO.
5 Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Prices Rise on Tanker Attack, but Need Positive Trade News to Continue Rally
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-prices-rise-on-tanker-attack-but-need-positive-trade-news-to-continue-rally-605506
Crude oil is also being underpinned by optimism over U.S.-China trade relations. President Donald Trump said he’s meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday, fueling optimism about a positive outcome from this week’s high-level trade talks.
6 Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-favorable-weather-indicates-further-downside-pressure-605534
The long-range weather models have started to converge a little, but neither shows early-season cold lingering around for more than a few days in the major demand areas. With all overnight weather models indicating a little lost demand for the coming 15-day forecast, rallies are likely to be capped.
7 Weekly resin report: Spot PE resin offers good buying opportunities
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-spot-pe-resin-offers-good-buying-opportunities/157805332561655
October got off to a slow start in the spot resin markets, but activity did creep up as the week wore on, reports the PlasticsExchange (Chicago) in its Market Update. While spot liquidity generally remained ample, fresh resin offers were on the lighter side as suppliers sought to edge spot prices higher.
8 Largest Oil Traders: Oil Prices Aren’t Going Anywhere
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Largest-Oil-Traders-Oil-Prices-Arent-Going-Anywhere.html
Oil prices are not going anywhere, at least until this time next year. Brent Crude will still trade range-bound in the $50s a year from now, the heads of the world’s largest independent oil and commodity trading groups said on Wednesday.
9 America’s petrochemicals outlook, w/c October 7-Industry Global News24
https://www.industryglobalnews24.com/americas-petrochemicals-outlook-wc-october-7
September synthetic resin contracts are finalized in the week. whereas some trade sources were within the method of sinking contracts for September most trade participants have said September was up by 3 cents/lb. Moreover, producers have lowered their October increment targets from 8 cents/lb to 4 cents/lb.
10 Back to business as usual
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/october/omr-back-to-business-as-usual.html
Oil markets in September withstood a textbook case of a large-scale supply disruption as the attacks on Saudi Arabia temporarily affected about 5.7 mb/d of crude production capacity. On Monday 16 September, the first trading day following the attacks, after an initial spike to $71/bbl Brent prices fell back as it became clear that the damage, although serious, would not cause long-lasting disruption to markets.
11 VLGC rates near 4-year high amid global moves to diversify LPG supply sources
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/101019-vlgc-rates-near-4-year-high-amid-global-moves-to-diversify-lpg-supply-sources
Very Large Gas Carrier rates on the key Middle East-Japan route have touched near four-month highs around $79/mt this week and looked poised to surpass $80/mt for the first time since October 2015 as more ships head to North America and Northeast Europe to lift LPG amid Saudi supply concerns and growing demand in Asia, traders said.
12 Big Oil Tries To Buy Back Investors
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oil-Tries-To-Buy-Back-Investors.html
Major oil companies have recently raised their guidance for dividend payouts, promising shareholders handsome returns at a time when a growing number of investors are questioning the future of oil and snub energy stocks.
13 Analysis: Vietnam emerges as polymer hub amid trade war
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1990392-analysis-vietnam-emerges-as-polymer-hub-amid-trade-war
Vietnam is positioning itself as southeast Asia’s top polymer hub as it indirectly benefits from the US-China trade war. The trade war has created two positive spillovers for Vietnam, through the increased availability of cheaper US-origin cargoes and the emergence of new conversion investment from China.
14 Short-Term Energy Outlook – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $59 per barrel (b) in August, down $5/b from July and $13/b lower than the average from August of last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $60/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $62/b in 2020. EIA forecasts that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $5.50/b less than Brent prices in 2020.
