Friday, October 4, 2019
Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 32
1 U.S. crude oil exports continued to grow in the first half of 2019 – Today in Energy
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41553
U.S. exports of crude oil rose to average 2.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2019, an increase of 966,000 b/d from the first half of 2018. U.S. crude oil exports also set a record-high monthly average in June 2019 at 3.2 million b/d.
2 Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Light Short-Covering Ahead of NFP Report
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-light-short-covering-ahead-of-nfp-report-604144
Today, all eyes will be on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Analysts are saying the report is likely to show hiring is slowing, but it should be solid enough to quell talk of a recession.
3 Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-weekly-forecast-set-up-for-short-term-rally-to-alleviate-oversold-conditions-604120
We could be looking a couple of days of technically driven price action with the first objective $2.368 to $2.440. If the market is poised for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement of its recent break then $2.476 to $2.539 will become the next major objective.
4 Downward Pricing Pressure for Commodity Resins this Quarter: Plastics Technology
https://www.ptonline.com/blog/post/downward-pricing-pressure-for-commodity-resins-this-quarter
The year’s last quarter started with signals that prices of PE, PP, PS, PVC, and possibly PET, despite suppliers’ price increase attempts, would drop or remain flat. Among the main drivers are ample supplies, falling global prices, and in some cases off demand. PET could be the exception as there are market projections for higher prices for its key feedstocks.
5 Prices for Nearly All Volume Resins Down : Plastics Technology
https://www.ptonline.com/articles/prices-for-nearly-all-volume-resins-down
Volume resin prices, all of which eroded during much of the third quarter, were generally projected to be flat in the fourth quarter, except perhaps for downward pricing of PET and nylons 6 and 66. Major drivers include supply outstripping demand, a slowdown in some key markets such as automotive and construction, lower U.S. GDP, slowed global demand, and tariff-related issues.
6 Markets Fear Oil Price Collapse: Should OPEC Cut More Production?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Markets-Fear-Oil-Price-Collapse-Should-OPEC-Cut-More-Production.html
It’s been nearly three years since the world’s top oil exporter and OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia forged an alliance with Russia to start managing oil supply with the hope of rebalancing the market and ensuring, in their words, market stability, in other words—higher oil prices.
7 Oil Demand Shrinks Under Weight of US-China Trade War
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_demand_shrinks_under_weight_of_uschina_trade_war-03-oct-2019-159960-article/
This trade war has slowed demand for oil in China, but also in Europe and America itself. China is the world’s biggest market for crude, importing around 9.7 million barrels a day in the year up to June. In the first half of 2018, before the dispute, China was the biggest importer of U.S. crude, averaging 377,000 barrels per day. In February this year U.S. crude exports had dropped to just 41,600 barrels per day. On Sept. 1, Beijing imposed a 5 percent tariff on U.S. crude oil imports. The decline in U.S. oil and LNG exports to China could now get worse. Here, we look at the impact of the current trade war on the American oil and gas industry and after its resolution.
8 IEA May Further Cut Oil Demand Forecast
https://www.rigzone.com/news/iea_may_further_cut_oil_demand_forecast-02-oct-2019-159952-article/
The IEA may further lower its oil demand forecast, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has revealed in a Bloomberg television interview published on Tuesday.
9 OPEC+ Ministers Stick to Their Plan
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/opec_ministers_stick_to_their_plan-03-oct-2019-159967-article/
As crude prices sink again — completely erasing the surge caused by attacks on Saudi Arabia — OPEC+ ministers acknowledged the growing risks to oil demand but gave no indication of a change in strategy.
10 U.S. Exports Are Revolutionizing The LNG Market
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2019/10/03/u-s-exports-are-revolutionizing-the-lng-market/
The term “LNG market” might be considered oxymoronic given the history of the industry, which can arguably be described as an oligopoly. Typically, a liquefaction project followed a certain trajectory: find enough gas to fulfill a long-term deal, locate a buyer willing to commit to a long-term contract (15 or 20 years) with restrictions preventing resale of LNG cargoes (destination restrictions) to reduce competition, high take-or-pay clauses, and prices indexed to crude oil, based on the relative heat contents. (Which is like pricing tea based on the caffeine content relative to coffee.) The spot market was extremely thin.
11 Rystad: BP and Shell on opposite sides of M&A ranking in last 5 years
https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/rystad-bp-and-shell-on-opposite-sides-of-ma-ranking-in-last-5-years/
Rystad Energy has analyzed the share of resources traded globally from 2015 through July 2019. Two oil and gas companies stand out in the tally, not including the outlier deal between Occidental and Anadarko in May this year:
12 U.S.-Asia oil freight rate hits record high amid Chinese tanker sanctions: sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-crude-shipping-idUSKBN1WG4W2
Freight rates for U.S. crude tankers bound for Asia hit an all-time high on Wednesday as U.S. sanctions on a Chinese transport giant cut vessel availability, traders and shipbrokers said.
13 Weak oil prices hit Exxon’s third-quarter earnings: filing
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-mobil-outlook-idUSKBN1WG4YZ
Exxon Mobil Corp’s (XOM.N) operating profits fell last quarter for the fourth consecutive period, according to a regulatory filing on Tuesday that showed all three of its major businesses slumping from a year ago.
14 Huge Brazil Oil Auction Attracts Interest from BP, Exxon, Shell
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/huge-brazil-oil-auction-attracts-interest-from-bp-exxon-shell
The auction of drilling rights off the coast of Brazil planned for November, potentially offering more oil than all the proven reserves in Mexico, has attracted interest from some of the world’s largest producers.
Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are among 14 companies registered, the government said. Brazil expects to raise as much as 106 billion reais ($25 billion) in licensing fees from selling the leases.
15 Exclusive: Mexico’s Pemex seeks control of U.S. oil firm’s billion-barrel find
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-oil-zama-exclusive-idUSKBN1WF11Z
When U.S. oil firm Talos Energy found nearly a billion barrels off Mexico’s southern Gulf coast two years ago, it marked the first discovery by a foreign firm since the oil industry was nationalized eight decades earlier. Now Mexico’s state-run oil firm Pemex wants to take over the lucrative project, according to two former Mexican energy officials and two company executives with knowledge of internal Pemex discussions.
16 Energy and GDP growth | McKinsey
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/the-decoupling-of-gdp-and-energy-growth-a-ceo-guide
But past is not always prologue. Our latest global energy perspective—part of a multiyear research effort examining the supply and demand of 55 types of energy across 30 sectors in some 146 countries—suggests that we’re beginning to see a decoupling between the rates of economic growth and energy demand, which in the decades ahead will become even more pronounced.
