Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 76

Friday, August 7, 2020

Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 76

 

1          Oil slips below $45 on demand concerns, set for weekly rise
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN2530BI
Oil dipped below $45 a barrel on Friday on worries that a demand recovery would slow due to a resurgence of coronavirus cases, although a pledge from OPEC member Iraq to cut oil output further in August provided support.

The resurgence of infections remains a key issue for the market and demand outlook. Tallies show cases in the United States are rising in a number of states. India reported on Friday a record daily jump in infections.

Brent crude LCOc1 fell 51 cents, or 1.1%, to $44.58 by 1209 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 also slipped 51 cents, or 1.2%, to $41.44. Both benchmarks are set for weekly gains of more than 2%.

 

2          Exxon: 20 Percent Of Global Oil And Gas Reserves May Be Wiped Out
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/20-Of-Global-Oil-Gas-Reserves-Could-Be-Wiped-Out-If-Crude-Prices-Dont-Recove.html

After a grim Q2 season for Big Oil, the world’s third-most valuable energy company is warning that 20% of the world’s oil and gas reserves may no longer be viable, according to Bloomberg.

According to Exxon Mobil, one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas reserves will no longer qualify as “proved reserves” at the end of this year if oil prices fail to recover before then.

A flurry of oil and gas companies have written off billions in oil and gas assets as the value of those assets in the current oil price climate is no longer what it once used to be. Exxon was not among them.

 

3          Weekly Resin Report: PE Supply/Demand Balance Tightens
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-pe-supplydemand-balance-tightens
In early July, as more and more US manufacturers ramped back up after being shut down because of the pandemic, they went shopping for resin to process. Whether they knew it or not, they were competing with international buyers for available US supply. Despite a price increase for export resin, super-strong demand quickly soaked up general allotments, and producers were essentially sold out of export material by mid-month, according to the PlasticsExchange. The early strong sales boost provided producers with confidence to firmly pursue their domestic July price increases. This included $0.05/lb for polyethylene (PE) and, with PGP monomer costs quickly escalating, a similar cost-push hike for polypropylene (PP). Some incredulous processors only picked away or outright passed on early-month offerings,

 

4          Asia shrugs off OPEC supply rise amid crippled demand
https://blogs.platts.com/2020/08/07/asia-refiners-opec-sour-crude-supply/
Middle Eastern sour crude supply is expected to increase this month after OPEC+ members on July 15 agreed to pare back their production cut commitment. But Asian consumers, who under normal circumstances would have welcomed the move, have barely taken notice.

It remains to be seen where all this excess oil will eventually end up as Asian buyers grapple with crippling demand and have to tweak refining strategies to minimize losses.

 

5          Russia’s SIBUR bullish on H2 despite pandemic eroding demand
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/08/07/10538565/russia-s-sibur-bullish-on-h2-despite-pandemic-eroding-demand

SIBUR’s outlook for its petrochemicals business is bullish for the second half of the year if a second wave of coronavirus infections is avoided, the Russian producer said this week.

“This is apparently when we hit the bottom. At the end of the second quarter, early in the third quarter we see improvements in spreads as well as demand,” said SIBUR executive director Sergey Komyshan.

“If we do not see any significant second wave of the pandemic, then we should be able to come back to levels in terms of margins that we saw before, but that will be very uneven among different regions.”

 

6          Iraq Commits to Deep Oil Cuts
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/iraq_commits_to_deep_oil_cuts-07-aug-2020-162956-article/
Iraq made its strongest commitment yet to implement deep cuts in crude production after the country’s oil minister and his Saudi counterpart held a phone call Thursday.

OPEC’s second-biggest producer — and a long-time laggard in meeting oil-output quotas — has faced mounting pressure to boost its compliance as the group’s patience wears thin. The country failed to meet its production-cut target in May and June, and removed just 11,000 barrels a day last month, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

7          Global Natural Gas Demand Set For Long-Term Growth After COVID
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Global-Natural-Gas-Demand-Set-For-Long-Term-Growth-After-COVID.html

The world’s consumption of natural gas is set to decline by 4 percent this year, but global demand will return to growth after the pandemic, thanks to low natural gas prices and stricter environmental policies, a new report showed on Thursday.

The Global Gas Report 2020 – published by the International Gas Union (IGU), research company BloombergNEF (BNEF), and Italian gas infrastructure firm Snam – says that the trend of increased natural gas demand due to environmental concerns, which was already underway before the pandemic, will continue after COVID-19 is under control.

 

8          U.S. weekly LNG exports dip
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/u-s-weekly-lng-exports-dip-3/
The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that a total of five LNG cargoes have been shipped during the week ending August 5.

The five tankers had a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 18 Billion cubic feet (Bcf) of the chilled fuel. This compares to seven cargoes with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 25 Bcf.

Cheniere’s Sabine Pass LNG facility shipped three cargoes with one cargo each added by its Corpus Christi plant and Sempra’s Cameron LNG facility.

 

9          COVID-19’s impact on commercial jet fuel demand has been significant and uneven
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44676
Efforts to contain the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have dramatically changed global commercial passenger flight volumes. These flights averaged a little more than 70,000 flights per day in January and February, fell to an average of less than 25,000 flights per day in April, and then started to increase again in May. Commercial jet fuel consumption showed a similar pattern, falling from an average of 4.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in January and February to 1.0 million b/d in April.

 

10        Exclusive: BP poised to sell ‘stranded assets’ even if oil prices rally
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-assets-transition-exclusive-idUSKCN2530GY
BP (BP.L) is preparing to sell a large chunk of its oil and gas assets even if crude prices bounce back from the COVID-19 crash because it wants to invest more in renewable energy, three sources familiar with BP’s thinking said.

The strategy was discussed at a BP executives meeting in July, the sources said, soon after the oil major lowered its long-term oil price forecast to $55 a barrel, meaning that $17.5 billion worth of its assets are no longer economically viable.

 

11        China Is Using The Pandemic As An Excuse To Not Buy U.S. Energy
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Is-Using-The-Pandemic-As-An-Excuse-To-Not-Buy-US-Energy.html

Back in June, we reported that China had begun ramping up imports of U.S. LNG ostensibly in a bid to fulfill the January trade agreement with Washington and possibly avert another full-blown trade war.

According to Wood Mackenzie via NGI, China took in 10 LNG cargoes from U.S. suppliers between April and May at the expense of its traditional suppliers, including Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

But it’s now emerging that the LNG purchases could have been a mere smokescreen.

 

12        Oil Prices Soar After EIA Reports Large Crude Draw
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Soar-After-EIA-Reports-Large-Crude-Draw.html
A week after it reported the heftiest crude oil draw in more than six months, the Energy Information Administration once again had good news for oil bulls: the authority said crude oil inventories had shed 7.4 million barrels during the week to July 31.

A week earlier, the EIA said inventories had lost as much as 10.6 million barrels, after a build of 4.6 million barrels for the second week of July. Analysts had expected an inventory decline of 3.267 million barrels for the week to July 31.

 

13        End juicy deals: Mexican president sets out state-centric energy vision
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-oil-idUSKCN25021W
The eight-page memorandum seen by Reuters broadly reflected what Lopez Obrador has said publicly since taking office in December 2018, but gave notice of his intention to roll back the market liberalization carried out in 2013-14 under the last government.

An official confirmed the authenticity of the document dated July 22, which said the government would “put a stop to juicy private deals at the cost of bad public business.” The document was addressed to officials at the country’s energy regulators.

 

14        U.S. Shale Faces Another Round Of Bankruptcies
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Faces-Another-Round-Of-Bankruptcies.html
More than thirty billion dollars: this is the size of the collective debt of oil and gas companies that filed for bankruptcy protection in the first half of the year. That is 23 companies, all but five of which filed during the second quarter when Covid-19 really took hold. Now, with the resurgence of new cases and an equal resurgence in doubts about the outlook for oil demand, more filings are on the way.

“It is reasonable to expect that a substantial number of producers will continue to seek protection from creditors in bankruptcy even if oil prices recover over the next few months,” Haynes and Boone said in its June report on oil and gas bankruptcies. The reasons: lukewarm oil demand improvement and even more lukewarm economic improvement. Until economies return to normal, the law firm noted, the situation for oil and gas is unlikely to book any marked improvement.

Recycling Renewables and Sustainable Business 47

Friday, August 7, 2020

Recycling Renewables and Sustainable Business 47

 

1          Could climate become the weak link in your supply chain?
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/could-climate-become-the-weak-link-in-your-supply-chain

Much of global economic production is organized around a complex system of interdependent supply chains. Supply chains facilitate the production of everything from computers and cars to lifesaving medicines and food, and support world trade in goods that is worth almost $20 trillion annually. End products have up to many thousands of parts, sourced from diverse geographies around the world. Over time, these supply chains have been honed to deliver maximum efficiency and speed.

 

2          Study to look into hydrogen use in maritime industry
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/study-to-look-into-hydrogen-use-in-maritime-industry/
OERA leads the study funded by Heritage Gas Limited, Liberty Utilities, the Nova Scotia Department of Energy & Mines and the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency.

“This study is one way we are evaluating options to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 in the Maritimes,” said OERA executive director Alisdair McLean.

“It will investigate hydrogen’s potential contribution to our region’s sustainable development goals, including creating hydrogen from local raw materials, transportation, storage and ultimate end uses both locally and in export markets,” he said.

 

3          Energy Giants Race For ‘Green Hydrogen’ Market Share
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Fuel-Cells/Energy-Giants-Race-For-Green-Hydrogen-Market-Share.html
Green hydrogen is red hot. While hydrogen has long been touted as a virtually inexhaustible source of clean energy, with zero carbon emissions since this first element on the periodic table burns clean, leaving behind only water vapor. This makes hydrogen highly marketable as a promising fuel source option for a decarbonized economy of the future. The idea of a new energy order has gained a ton of attention in the wake of the novel coronavirus’ unprecedented interruption to the energy sector status quo, with such influential organizations as the World Economic Forum calling for a “great reset”. Not all hydrogen is created equal, however.

 

4          Cobalt Price Squeeze Could Derail The EV Boom
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Cobalt-Price-Squeeze-Could-Derail-The-EV-Boom.html
Electric vehicle investors and enthusiasts tend to obsess about a single metric–EV sales–when trying to gauge the pace of global electrification. However, they tend to ignore another equally important part of the worldwide electrification drive: The number of EV charging points.  Despite significant advances made in battery technology over the past decade, many people looking to make the switch to EVs still cite range limitation as their biggest concern, essentially meaning that they worry their EVs won’t make it to the next charging station before running out of juice.

 

5          Can Renewables Fully Sustain Our Current Way Of Life?
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Can-Renewables-Fully-Sustain-Our-Current-Way-Of-Life.html

“The reason renewables can’t power modern civilization is because they were never meant to. One interesting question is why anybody ever thought they could.”

Michael Shellenberger, Time magazine “Hero of the Environment,” wrote this commentary in an article in Forbes.

According to Shellenberger, president at Environmental Progress and an expert reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), renewables are simply incapable of sustaining our current way of life.

 

6          Lawrence Berkeley Lab helping advance lithium extraction from geothermal brines
https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/lawrence-berkeley-lab-helping-advance-lithium-extraction-from-geothermal-brines/

Scientists at the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory are working with two companies to evaluate and analyze their lithium extraction technologies at the planned lithium extraction from geothermal brines projects in at the Salton Sea in California.

The California Energy Commission recently awarded grants to advance lithium extraction from geothermal brines in California. Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory will be working with two of the companies that received grants to explore and develop lithium extraction at the Salton Sea in California.

 

7          Covid-19 lockdown will have ‘negligible’ impact on climate crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/07/covid-19-lockdown-will-have-negligible-impact-on-climate-crisis-study

The draconian coronavirus lockdowns across the world have led to sharp drops in carbon emissions, but this will have “negligible” impact on the climate crisis, with global heating cut by just 0.01C by 2030, a study has found.

But the analysis also shows that putting the huge sums of post-Covid-19 government funding into a green recovery and shunning fossil fuels will give the world a good chance of keeping the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C. The scientists said we are now at a “make or break” moment in keeping under the limit – as compared with pre-industrial levels – agreed by the world’s governments to avoid the worst effects of global heating.

 

8          Big Oil Took a Big Hit from the Coronavirus, Earnings Reports Show
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31072020/big-oil-coronavirus-losses
The world’s leading oil and gas giants this week revealed the scale of the damage inflicted on the industry by the coronavirus pandemic, with top American companies reporting billions in losses while some European companies were able to eke out small profits.

Shell and Total, based in the Netherlands and France, respectively, said a dimming outlook on the long-term demand for oil and gas had forced them to cut the value of their assets by a collective $25 billion. The two companies attributed that lowered outlook to the effects of the pandemic, but also to an accelerating global transition to clean energy

 

9          More than 100 coal-fired plants have been replaced or converted to natural gas since 2011
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44636
According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 121 U.S. coal-fired power plants were repurposed to burn other types of fuels between 2011 and 2019, 103 of which were converted to or replaced by natural gas-fired plants. At the end of 2010, 316.8 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity existed in the United States, but by the end of 2019, 49.2 GW of that amount was retired, 14.3 GW had the boiler converted to burn natural gas, and 15.3 GW was replaced with natural gas combined cycle. The decision for plants to switch from coal to natural gas was driven by stricter emission standards, low natural gas prices, and more efficient new natural gas turbine technology.

 

10        Investors launch climate plan to get to net zero emissions by 2050
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-investors-idUSKCN2510FF
An investor group managing more than $16 trillion on Wednesday launched the world’s first step-by-step plan to help pension funds and others align their portfolios with the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Many investors have pledged high-level support to the goals of the 2015 Paris deal, but the “Net Zero Investment Framework” is the first to lay out the steps they need to take to ensure the commitment is backed up by the necessary action.

Specific targets could include increasing the percentage of assets invested in low-carbon passive indexes and ensuring the leaders of investee companies link pay to climate-related targets.

 

11        China poised to power huge growth in global offshore wind energy
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/05/china-poised-to-power-huge-growth-in-global-offshore-wind-energy

The world’s offshore windfarm capacity could grow eightfold by the end of the decade powered by a clean energy surge led by China, according to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).

A new industry report has revealed stronger than expected growth for the offshore wind industry, which could reach 234GW by 2030, from a global tally of just over 29GW at the end of last year.

The council revised its forecasts up by 15GW in its latest annual report on offshore wind power after the fastest ever growth in 2019, when new wind farms around the world added an extra 6.1GW to the global tally.

 

12        Energy is at the heart of the solution to the climate challenge — IPCC
https://www.ipcc.ch/2020/07/31/energy-climatechallenge/
The coronavirus pandemic has brought immense disruption to our world, destroying lives and livelihoods. But it is also reminding us that there are some challenges we cannot tackle alone.

Limiting the spread of the virus has required everyone to act collectively to make life safer for all of us. This holds true for the other great crisis the world faces – untamed levels of greenhouse gas emissions that are already bringing increasingly dangerous consequences.

 

13        Letter from economists: to rebuild our world, we must end the carbon economy
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/04/economists-letter-carbon-economy-climate-change-rebuild

From deep-rooted racism to the Covid-19 pandemic, from extreme inequality to ecological collapse, our world is facing dire and deeply interconnected emergencies. But as much as the present moment painfully underscores the weaknesses of our economic system, it also gives us the rare opportunity to reimagine it. As we seek to rebuild our world, we can and must end the carbon economy.

 

14        Credit Suisse earmarks more than $300 billion for sustainable finance
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-credit-suisse-gp-sustainability-idUSKCN24V1M3
Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) plans to provide at least 300 billion Swiss francs ($328.41 billion) in sustainable financing over the next decade in areas such as renewable energy and Green Bonds.

The move is the latest in a string of announcements by banks looking to display their green credentials and capture demand for cash from companies to help a shift to a low-carbon economy. Governments around the world are tightening rules on industry to try to meet the terms of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

 

Business Intelligence and Analytics 76

Friday, August 7, 2020

Business Intelligence and Analytics 76

 

1          How long will the economic recovery take?
https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/ca/en/research-insights/how-long-will-the-economic-recovery-take/detail/?utm_id=wm1552134912590220&amp=1

The U.S. economy’s Q2 COVID-19 crash was about as bad as economists had expected—but that doesn’t make it feel any better. GDP plunged 32.9 percent (q/q annualized) based on preliminary data, by far the worst decline since the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) began collecting comparable quarterly data in mid-1947. The previous low was -10 percent in early 1958.

This plunge, combined with the five percent retrenchment in Q1 of this year, wiped out three years of economic growth. The size of the economy is back to what it was in Q2 2017.

 

2          HR says talent is crucial for performance–and the pandemic proves it
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/hr-says-talent-is-crucial-for-performance-and-the-pandemic-proves-it

To say that chief HR officers (CHROs) are busy in the COVID-19 era would be an understatement. Now, more than ever, they are central to how companies are reimagining their personnel practices to build organizational resilience and drive value.

In the earliest days of the crisis, CHROs kept people safe while fostering connectivity and caring in an intensely stressful time. In planning for and implementing the restart, they have been working to maintain morale and productivity for remote workforces while trying to figure out how and when to get folks back into office settings.

 

3          How Managers Can Enable AI Talent in Organizations
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-managers-can-enable-ai-talent-in-organizations/
The AI & Machine Learning Imperative

“The AI & Machine Learning Imperative” offers new insights from leading academics and practitioners in data science and artificial intelligence. The Executive Guide, published as a series over three weeks, explores how managers and companies can overcome challenges and identify opportunities by assembling the right talent, stepping up their own leadership, and reshaping organizational strategy.

 

4          How search data can inform larger online business decisions
https://searchengineland.com/how-search-data-can-inform-larger-online-business-decisions-338621
As an SEO I’m constantly utilizing keyword search volume data to help make more informed decisions about clients’ online presence. But the reality is, this data has way more use cases than anyone gives it credit for. The role of a decision maker in any online business requires the ability to gather (or be presented with), understand, and forecast with all types of data. Simple yet effective methods for identifying trends in online searches can ensure you’re getting your product or services in front of the right people at the right time. This is particularly useful if you sell a variety of seasonal products online. But the same process can be leveraged for single-focus businesses, as well. This data can then trickle down to a variety of team members, from SEO and Paid Search Account Managers, to merchandisers and content strategists. How you ask? Let’s look at some use cases:

 

5          Data, Data and More Data
https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/the-weather-networks-long-term-forecast-data-data-and-more-data/
Before the COVID pandemic, the International Data Corporation projected data creation to grow to 175 zettabytes by 2025, 10 times the amount of data created in 2017. That number could soon well be higher, given the lockdowns that have forced businesses to rapidly pivot to online.

Few other companies understand the importance of data as much as Pelmorex Corp, which owns the Weather Network in Canada and El Tiempo in Spain. It’s the third largest weather platform in the world, attracting 60 million users to its business each month.

 

6          The Rising Frugal Economy
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-rising-frugal-economy/
In 2020, the world is grappling with COVID-19 along with several other major crises. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the world could experience the worst recession since the 1930s this year, with the global economy contracting by 3% as advanced economies shrink by 6.1%. The World Trade Organization expects global trade to fall by as much as 32% in 2020.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reports that inequality in the world’s most developed economies is at its highest level in 50 years. The World Meteorological Organization recently warned that over the next five years, annual global temperatures could potentially rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, leading to catastrophic climate change.

 

7          Understanding channel capability for better digital marketing strategy
https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2020/08/07/understanding-channel-capability-better-digital-marketing-strategy

Fundamental to creating any digital marketing strategy is a firm understanding of what it is that channels do and who they can reach.

This sounds straightforward, yet I regularly see companies that are reliant on channels that represent a race to the bottom (in terms of price/margin) or who are paying more than once to convert a customer. This is often a sign that they are mainly targeting low-value customers and/or even their own existing customers.

 

8          A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-08/a-crash-in-the-dollar-is-coming
Is the decline of the dollar over? The U.S. currency has been falling steadily ever since the world exited the initial stage of the Covid-19 crisis. It has done so in line with the spectacular decline in real yields. This makes perfect sense. With lower yields, there is lower “carry” to be earned by parking in the dollar, so the currency would be expected to weaken.

But last week ended with a distinct variation of the theme. The 10-year real yield dropped below minus 1% for the first time since inflation-protected Treasury bonds have been on issue. Meanwhile the popular dollar index, which compares the currency to a group of leading counterparts, suddenly enjoyed its strongest rally in months, gaining almost 1% into the close:

 

9          How to Leverage Marketing Automation to Generate More Leads
https://www.business2community.com/marketing-automation/how-to-leverage-marketing-automation-to-generate-more-leads-02333081

The incorporation of the internet in human lives has changed the way people live and work. The mode of advertisement for the businesses is no exception to this!

As a result, people have devised marketing automation for alluring their target audience along with the inclusion of a few promising sub-processes that collectively contribute to instigating more leads.

To exemplify, the top results from the Pepper 2014 Marketing Automation Reportrevealed that 53% of the responders were using the marketing automation back in the year 2014, which certainly was expected to rise at a higher proportion in the future.

 

10        Essential Data Science Tips: How to Use One-Vs-Rest and One-Vs-One for Multi-Class Classification
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/08/one-vs-rest-one-multi-class-classification.html
Only a few classification models aid multi-class classification. Specific algorithms, including logistic regression and perceptron, work best with binary classification and do not support more than two classes of classification tasks. The best alternative for solving multi-class classification problems is splitting the multi-class datasets into multiple binary assemblies of data that can fit the binary classification model.

Algorithms used in binary classification problems cannot work with multi-class tasks. Therefore, heuristic methods, such as one-vs-one and one-vs-rest, are used to split multi-class problems into multiple binary datasets and train the binary classification model.

 

11        Business stress is no excuse to spam
https://martechtoday.com/business-stress-is-no-excuse-to-spam-243077
Whenever I think I’ve seen it all after 20+ years as an email professional, a brand does something to surprise me – and often not in a good way.

As we work our way through the COVID-19 experience, companies are striving for revenue any which way they can. Most are doing it by ramping up their existing channels. Some are blowing out everything they can in a desperate attempt to make their numbers.

But today I’m going to talk about what happens when a company goes too far.