Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 66

Friday, May 29, 2020

Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 66

1          Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Worsening US-China Relations Likely Source of Impending Volatility
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-worsening-us-china-relations-likely-source-of-impending-volatility-652108

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging lower on Friday with prices dragged down by weak U.S. fuel demand, fears of a second wave of coronavirus cases in South Korea and a worsening in U.S.-China relations. Nonetheless, the markets remain on track for a hefty monthly gain.

At 11:55 GMT, July WTI crude oil is trading $32.85, down $0.86 or -2.55% and August Brent crude oil is at $35.28, down $0.75 or -2.08%.

2          LNG Asian spot prices fall on supply overhang pressure
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-lng-idUSKBN23518A
The average LNG price for July delivery into northeast Asia fell to an estimated $1.85 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down 7 cents from the previous week, traders said.

Several cargoes were offered in the spot market this week, dragging down prices in Asia, they added.

Russia’s Sakhalin 2 plant had offered a cargo for July loading while Angola LNG offered cargoes for June to September delivery through two separate tenders, traders said.

3          How Are Chemicals Companies Responding To The Economic Blow From Coronavirus?
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/how-are-chemicals-companies-responding-to-the-economic-blow-from-coronavirus/

Capex cuts, reduced operating expenses and declining global demand for chemical derivatives will affect many upcoming petrochemical projects. We’re seeing postponed start-up dates, revised estimated project costs and delayed final investment decisions (FIDs).

Enterprise, for example, is delaying the start-up date of their 750 ktpa PDH2 in Texas from Q1 2023 to Q2 2023. BP and SOCAR have postponed construction and FID on the Mercury Complex in Turkey. And in China, Sinochem Quanzhou’s 1000 ktpa cracker, Heilongjiang Longyou’s 400 ktpa cracker, and Ningbo Huatai Shengfu’s 600 ktpa cracker have all announced delays.

4          Weekly Resin Report: Spot Trading Picks Up, as Supply, Demand, and Pricing Fears Recede
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-spot-trading-picks-supply-demand-and-pricing-fears-recede/33859328063096

The folks at the PlasticsExchange were not quite ready to strike up the band and belt out, “Happy days are here again,” but they did say that spot resin trading felt a bit more like the “good ole days, which actually weren’t too long ago, just seems so.” A steady stream of buyer requests and sellers’ offers gave a nice rhythm to the market, reports the resin clearinghouse in its Market Update.

5          Covid-19 weekly update: 2020’s oil demand recovery seen a bit slower, 2021 demand downgraded
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/covid-19-weekly-update-2020s-oil-demand-recovery-seen-a-bit-slower-2021-demand-downgraded/

As a result of recent developments, with travel restrictions, quarantine obligations and new government policies announced daily around the world, we are making frequent updates to most of our estimates.

Below are some of our forecasts from the just-published 12th edition of the report. Please note that some historical numbers may differ from week to week as governments revise their official figures.

6          Pandemic Will Hasten Demise of Many Oil Refineries
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/pandemic_will_hasten_demise_of_many_oil_refineries-28-may-2020-162219-article/

Who needs a loss-making, inflexible oil refinery in a world where demand for petroleum has been obliterated? We’re about to find out.

When consumption of transport fuels collapsed this year because of coronavirus, much of the industry moved into survival mode, cutting processing rates and even temporarily stopping refining in some cases. While that helped prop up the industry’s margins for a while, a combination of rising crude costs and still-weak end-user demand are starting to bite.

7          Oil analysts see prices edging up but still capped below $40/bbl
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-prices-idUSKBN2351FY
The survey of 43 analysts forecast Brent crude would average $37.58 a barrel in 2020, about 5% above April’s $35.84 consensus, but still lower than the $42.37 average so far this year.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is seen averaging $32.78 a barrel, up from $31.47 last month, after a brief historic fall in the front-month futures contract to minus $40 in April.

8          EIA: U.S. LNG feedgas deliveries lowest since October 2019
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/eia-u-s-lng-feedgas-deliveries-lowest-since-october-2019/
Natural gas deliveries to U.S. facilities producing liquefied natural gas for export (LNG feedgas) slipped to the lowest levels since October 2019. The volumes declined to 5.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) on May 24, 2020, and averaged 6.7 Bcf/d from May 1 through May 26, EIA noted, citing IHS Markit data.

This was the lowest level of LNG feedgas deliveries since October 2019, despite 2.0 Bcf/d baseload (2.3 Bcf/d peak) of new liquefaction capacity that was commissioned over this period.

9          Spot ethylene prices in northeast Asia
https://www.argusmedia.com/pages/NewsBody.aspx?id=2109257&menu=yes
Spot ethylene prices in northeast Asia have risen to the highest level since the week of 3 March on the back of a tighter June market and stronger demand.

Prices have now increased for a fourth consecutive week, with spot trades and discussions rising above $700/t cfr northeast Asia for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in the region. Argus assessed prices at $680-715/t cfr northeast Asia on 28 May.

10        Deja Vu: OPEC’s Recurring Oil Production Dilemma
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Deja-Vu-OPECs-Recurring-Oil-Production-Dilemma.html

Two conflicting reports about OPEC’s plans for oil production surfaced earlier this week–both citing unnamed sources. One set of sources claimed that Russia was considering an extension of the current oil production cuts beyond the end of June. The other set of sources said that Russia was planning to ease the cuts starting in July. This is a perfect illustration of the uncertainty reigning over oil markets. This uncertainty, however, needs to be mitigated, and the most likely one to do it would be the OPEC+ club, together accounting for more than a third of global oil production.

11        U.S. crude stocks swell as tankers from Saudi Arabia unload
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-global-kemp-idUSKBN2351Q4
U.S. petroleum inventories increased sharply last week as the fleet of tankers sent from Saudi Arabia at the height of the volume war started to discharge their crude while the recovery in domestic fuel use remained sluggish.

Total stocks of crude and products outside the strategic petroleum reserve climbed by almost 15 million barrels to a record 1.41 billion barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

12        The Oil Storage Crisis Is Far From Over
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Oil-Storage-Crisis-Is-Far-From-Over.html
Yet, resting uncomfortably in the back of trading minds is this: Oil storage remains painfully squeezed, raising the specter of another April-esque selloff.

Ships full of crude are still anchored in the high seas off the coasts of the U.S., China, Europe, and elsewhere with onshore storage sold out and refinery run rates across the globe still a long way off their usual clips.

13        Russia’s Rosneft finds extended oil cuts painful
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rosneft-oil-exclusive-idUSKBN2350WY
Rosneft (ROSN.MM) does not have enough crude to ship to buyers with which it has long-term supply deals, making it hard for the Russian company to continue with record oil cuts beyond June, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

14        EIA This Week In Petroleum Summary
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2020/200528/includes/analysis_print.php
Global expenditures related to oil and gas exploration and development (E&D) increased $42 billion (13%) in 2019, totaling $361 billion, according to the aggregate financial reports for 102 oil companies. Additions to these companies’ collective proved reserves totaled 18 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), consistent with the 2010–18 annual average additions. As a result of the significant price declines since the beginning of 2020, however, global proved reserves will likely be revised significantly downward this year. E&D expenditures will also likely decline significantly, with several companies already announcing large budget reductions.

15        ConocoPhillips Sells Australia-West Assets, Ops to Santos for $1.3B
https://www.rigzone.com/news/conocophillips_sells_australiawest_assets_ops_to_santos_for_13b-29-may-2020-162226-article/

ConocoPhillips has completed the sale of its subsidiaries that hold its Australia-West assets and operations to Santos for a reduced purchase price of US$1.265 billion plus an increased contingent payment of $200 million subject to a final investment decision (FID) on Barossa.

16        Lithium-ion battery plant in China
https://www.argusmedia.com/pages/NewsBody.aspx?id=2108789&menu=yes
Chinese lithium-ion battery producer Jiangsu Pylontech has launched a 5 GWh/yr production plant for lithium-ion battery systems at Yizheng city in southeast China’s Jiangsu province.

Construction of the plant, with a total investment cost of 1.5bn yuan ($210mn), is scheduled to be completed in three phases by the end of 2022.

17        North American crude oil prices are closely, but not perfectly, connected
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43875

The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) front-month futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the most heavily used crude oil price benchmark in North America, saw its largest and swiftest decline ever on April 20, 2020, dropping as low as -$40.32 per barrel (b) during intraday trading before closing at -$37.63/b. Prices have since recovered, and even though the market event proved short-lived, the incident is useful for highlighting the interconnectedness of the wider North American crude oil market.

Recycling Renewables and Sustainable Business 37

Friday, May 29, 2020

Recycling Renewables and Sustainable Business 37

1          Among oil majors promising renewable investments, only one is putting serious money on the table
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/among-oil-majors-promising-renewable-investments-only-one-is-putting-serious-money-on-the-table/

Investments in solar and wind energy projects by the world’s oil majors over the next five years are expected to reach $17.5 billion, a Rystad Energy analysis finds. But a closer look at the numbers reveals that some $10 billion, or 57% of the amount, is expected to be invested by a single company, Equinor, the only investor whose majority of greenfield capex will be towards renewable energy.

2          COVID-19 Strangles Global Energy Investment
https://solarindustrymag.com/covid-19-strangles-global-energy-investment
At the start of 2020, global energy investment was on track for growth of around 2%, which would have been the largest annual rise in spending in six years. But after the COVID-19 crisis brought large sectors of the world economy to a halt in a matter of months, global investment is now expected to plummet by 20%, or almost $400 billion, compared with last year, according to the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2020 report.

3          Global electric vehicle sales to drop 43% in 2020
https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/global-electric-vehicle-sales-to-drop-43-in-2020/
Wood Mackenzie’s analysis notes that China will catch up to 2019 demand by November 2020, while Europe will do so by December. Year-over-year demand in the US is projected to lag 2019 demand by 30% by the close of 2020.

“At the end of January, sales of all cars in China were down by 21% compared to 2019. By February, they had plunged by 80%. EV sales were hit harder, with January numbers down 54% and February projected to be down more than 90%. EVs have constituted approximately 5% of all vehicles sales in China for the past two years.

4          Volkswagen in final talks to seal biggest M&A deals in China EV sector
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-investment-china-exclusive-idUSKBN2330F1
Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) is in final talks to seal its largest investment deals with Chinese electric vehicle (EV) firms, two sources said, as the German automaker accelerates its push into the world’s largest market for environmentally friendlier cars.

5          The Clock Is Ticking On The Electric Vehicle Supply Chain of the Future
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/27/lithium-supply-fears-loom-over-electric-vehicle-happy-talk-or-not-as-the-case-may-be/

Spring has sprung, which means it’s time for another round of guess how much lithium automakers will need to make enough lithium-ion batteries for the electric vehicle of the future, of which there are expected to be many millions on the road within the next ten years or so. Spoiler alert: we’re going to need a lot more lithium mines than we have right now. Or, maybe not.

6          Three ways we could improve lithium-ion batteries
https://www.energy-storage.news/blogs/three-ways-we-could-improve-lithium-ion-batteries
Driven by an ever-increasing world population as well as global economic growth, our energy needs have been rising rapidly, peaking 113,000TWh in 2017 according to the International Energy Agency. The impact of this growth on the environment and well-being of society is becoming more apparent, intensifying the need to decarbonise the transportation and power generation sectors – the two highest polluting sectors in the European Union (EU).

7          Used EV batteries for large scale solar energy storage
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/25/used-ev-batteries-for-large-scale-solar-energy-storage/
MIT scientists have suggested used electric vehicle batteries could offer a more viable business case than purpose-built systems for the storage of grid scale solar power in California. Such ‘second life’ EV batteries, may cost only 60% of their original purchase price to deploy and can be effectively aggregated for industrial scale storage even if they have lost 80% of their original capacity.

8          Germany Aims To Become World’s Hydrogen Hotspot
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Germany-Aims-To-Become-Worlds-Hydrogen-Hotspot.html

The energy transition can be compared to a marathon instead of a sprint. As the costs of photovoltaic cells and wind turbines have significantly decreased, decarbonizing the economy has become attainable. The wealthier countries of northern Europe are, arguably, some of the most ambitious societies when it comes to the energy transition. Germany, especially, is an important country due to the size of its economy, political influence in Europe, and technological prowess.

9          Deferred expansion plans fuel prospect of lithium price spike after 2022
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-lithium-graphic-idUSKBN2341AK
Auto sales including electric vehicles have slumped this year due to economic damage from the coronavirus. But sales are expected to accelerate over coming years as auto makers plough on with plans to meet stringent emission regulations.

“When demand comes back, the supply side won’t be able to react quickly enough,” said Simon Moores, managing director at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, adding that lithium prices would bounce after 2022.

10        U.S. renewable energy consumption surpasses coal for the first time in over 130 years
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43895
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Monthly Energy Review. This outcome mainly reflects the continued decline in the amount of coal used for electricity generation over the past decade as well as growth in renewable energy, mostly from wind and solar. Compared with 2018, coal consumption in the United States decreased nearly 15%, and total renewable energy consumption grew by 1%.

11        Spain and Italy are European renewables investment hot spots, says CEO, and Mexico really should be too
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/28/spain-and-italy-are-european-renewables-investment-hot-spots-says-ceo-and-mexico-really-should-be-too/

The zero-subsidy segment of the Spanish and Italian solar markets has hoisted them near the top of the list of most attractive PV locations for a privately-owned renewables investment company which recently launched in London.

Susgen will manage the renewables assets of the real estate and clean energy-focused PP Asset Management vehicle owned by Philip Pels, which has already developed more than 1 GW of renewable energy generation capacity.

12        Hydrogen from natural gas instrumental in decarbonisation of energy
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/wintershall-dea-hydrogen-from-natural-gas-instrumental-in-decarbonisation-of-energy/

German oil and gas company Wintershall Dea believes that hydrogen from natural gas will be instrumental in the decarbonisation of energy system and that the much-needed hydrogen market will not succeed without natural gas.

As reported by DNV GL, carbon-free hydrogen production, transmission, and distribution are now widely recognized as central components to the oil and gas industry’s decarbonisation efforts.

13        How Long Until Hydrogen Is Competitive At The Pump?
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Fuel-Cells/How-Long-Until-Hydrogen-Is-Competitive-At-The-Pump.html

Hydrogen might have a way to break through one of the barriers that keeps it from reaching mass-scale adoption for fuel cell electric cars and trucks.

French fuel company Air Liquide just released a new product in the US that can make hydrogen competitive with the average gasoline and diesel fuel station. Its high capacity of 1,000 kg and dual filling positions are capable of fueling 250 vehicles per day.

14        Hydrogen on oil and gas industry’s decarbonisation horizon
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/hydrogen-on-oil-and-gas-decarbonisation-horizon/
Hydrogen has surged up the priority list of many oil and gas organizations, taking a primary position in the sector’s decarbonisation efforts, according to a new report by DNV GL.

The classification society said on Thursday that a fifth of senior oil and gas industry professionals claimed their organization was already actively entering the hydrogen market.

Also, the proportion intending to invest in the hydrogen economy doubled from 20 to 42 per cent in the year leading up to the coronavirus-induced oil price crash.

15        EU green recovery package sets a marker for the world
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/28/eu-green-recovery-package-sets-a-marker-for-the-world

The European commission has put down a marker for the world with its green recovery package. It sets a high standard for other nations, using the rebuilding of coronavirus-ravaged economies to tackle the even greater threat of the climate emergency, in principle at least.

With the world fast approaching the point when climate chaos becomes inevitable, how the trillions of recovery dollars – or euros – are spent is a use-it-or-lose-it moment, so what the EU does really matters. Climate change is a global crisis, meaning all nations must act and some must lead the way.

16        Startups Give U.K. Hope in the Battery Manufacturing Race
https://about.bnef.com/blog/startups-give-u-k-hope-in-the-battery-manufacturing-race/
Two startups, AMTE Power and Britishvolt, are set to help save the U.K.’s battery manufacturing ambitions. The companies have announced that they will build a 30 gigawatt-hour, or larger, facility in the country.

The U.K. has been trying to develop lithium-ion battery manufacturing in order to help it secure its automotive industry as the vehicle market electrifies. In 2018, the government launched the £246 million Faraday Battery Challenge to help develop industry know-how, support startups and attract battery manufacturing. However, uncertainties around a post-Brexit U.K. resulted in companies like Tesla turning to Germany to build their European facilities.

17        European Grid Operators Move to Scale Up Blockchain Platform for Batteries
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/european-tsos-embrace-blockchain-platform
Three major European grid operators are rolling out a new blockchain platform to tap the growing penetration of small-scale distributed energy resources for grid balancing.

As behind-the-meter resources like batteries, heat pumps and electric cars proliferate, challenges remain in finding ways for them to benefit the wider grid. Aggregating such systems — and compensating their owners — requires large numbers of transactions to be balanced and validated constantly.

18        Renewable energy firms scooping up cast-off oil and gas workers
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/5/29/renewable-energy-firms-scooping-up-cast-off-oil-and-gas-workers

Jeff Bishop’s LinkedIn post gets right to the point: “Houston Oil & Gas Folks — we’re hiring in Texas” for jobs in clean tech.

His company, battery developer Key Capture Energy, is making the pitch even as tens of thousands of renewable-energy jobs have dried up amid the coronavirus pandemic. That’s because Bishop and a handful of other clean-power executives see an opportunity to recruit talent from the oil and gas industries, which have been even harder hit.

19        China excludes clean coal projects from list eligible for green bonds
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-environment-finance-idUSKBN2350FW
China has excluded “clean coal” from a list of projects eligible for green bonds, according to long-awaited new draft guidelines published by the central bank on Friday.

The new catalogue of eligible projects replaces the previous one published in 2015, and will be open to public consultation until June 12, the People’s Bank of China said in a notice.

20        Chevron shareholders want evidence of climate change performance
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/5/28/chevron-shareholders-want-evidence-of-climate-change-performance

In a rare move against Chevron Corp.’s board, shareholders of the U.S. oil giant are calling on the company to disclose lobbying efforts and ensure that they support international goals to combat global warming.

The proposal was the only one where a majority of Chevron’s investors diverged from the board’s recommendations in an annual meeting held virtually Wednesday. The matter was brought by BNP Paribas Asset Management, which has stepped up efforts in recent years to help further the international Paris Agreement on climate change. BlackRock Inc., Chevron’s second-biggest shareholder, also backed the measure.

21        Survey Tracks Health of Energy Transition Amid COVID-19
https://www.rigzone.com/news/survey_tracks_health_of_energy_transition_amid_covid19-28-may-2020-162217-article/

“The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted many of the attributes that could accelerate the energy transition as companies re-evaluate supply chains, collaborate within and across sectors and pioneer capex-light scalable solutions with digital technologies and analytics at the core,” commented Kate Hardin, executive director with the Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials. “The coming months will likely show how enduring these innovations may prove.”

22        Climate change could mean a Mediterranean basin without a Mediterranean climate
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/a-mediterranean-basin-without-a-mediterranean-climate

Year-round, millions of visitors from all over the world flock to enjoy the mild climate, wine and food, and stunning scenery. However, climate change may harshen the Mediterranean climate and disrupt vital industries such as tourism and agriculture. The mean temperature in the Mediterranean basin has increased 1.4 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century, compared with the global average of 1.1 degrees—and absent targeted decarbonization, temperatures are projected to increase by an additional 1.5 degrees by 2050. Rising temperatures are expected to raise hydrological variability, increasing the risk of drought, water stress, wildfires, and floods, and noticeably change the Mediterranean climate.

23        US south-west in grip of historic ‘megadrought’, research finds
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/29/megadrought-us-south-west-fires-water-research

“We had periodic [fire] sieges in the 80s, but there were breaks in between,” said Pimlott, the former head of the California department of forestry and fire protection. But no longer. “That doesn’t really happen any more. Now you can’t even blink” between fires, he said. “We’re seeing the kinds of fires we have never seen before.”

Business Intelligence and Analytics 66

Friday, May 29, 2020

Business Intelligence and Analytics 66

1          Who Gets What When Supply Chains Are Disrupted?
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/who-gets-what-when-supply-chains-are-disrupted/
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended normal life and many supply chains. Between hoarding (such as toilet paper), unexpected demand surges (such as yeast, for baking), and spot supply shortages (because of factories or warehouses closed due to infection or mandate), some products are in short supply. The most tragic examples, of course, involve shortages of ventilators, personal protective equipment, and pharmaceutical supplies required to care for people infected with the coronavirus.

2          Building a flexible supply chain
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/advanced-electronics/our-insights/building-a-flexible-supply-chain-in-low-volume-high-mix-industrials

For many industrial companies, supply-chain problems are a fact of life. Although these businesses have attempted to simplify their product portfolios, customers increasingly want freedom to configure appliances, commercial vehicles, aircraft equipment, and other goods. But industrials often have difficulty getting the parts they need to support low-volume, high-mix manufacturing when needed for production. The requested quantities can be relatively small, and suppliers often prioritize their larger customers when fulfilling orders.

3          Elevating customer experience excellence in the next normal
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/elevating-customer-experience-excellence-in-the-next-normal

The impact of COVID-19 on customer behavior has been sweeping and immediate. Spending across most industries is down, purchases have shifted from in-person to digital channels, and public safety has become a top priority for companies and consumers alike. Executives who had carefully crafted omnichannel strategies to create unique, compelling customer experiences have had to throw out their playbooks and improvise to keep pace.

4          Marketing Beyond the Gender Binary
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/marketing-beyond-the-gender-binary/
From Philip Morris’s 1954 introduction of the Marlboro Man to promote a “universally masculine appeal” to Dr Pepper Ten’s 2011 launch of a diet soda that was proudly “not for women,” marketers have long capitalized on traditional gender beliefs to sell their products. But now, a decade after Old Spice’s “Smell Like a Man, Man” campaign, brands can no longer rely solely on outdated tropes to connect with increasingly diverse, empowered consumers. Traditional Western views on gender — where people fit neatly into predefined concepts and behaviors of masculinity and femininity — are giving way to inclusivity that allows more individualized and authentic manifestations of gender beyond the binary model.

5          Monte Carlo Method and Price Testing: Old Solution for Modern Problems
https://insidebigdata.com/2020/05/28/monte-carlo-method-and-price-testing-old-solution-for-modern-problems/

In this special guest feature, Vladimir Kuchkanov, Pricing Solution Architect at Competera, examines how data scientists often forget about classics while good old algorithms are still relevant and efficient. In particular, Monte Carlo method (MCM) pops up in mind. Among many fields of its application, MCM has established itself as a solid solution in price prediction and automation of pricing rules in retail. Like any analytical approach, MCM has limitations and inaccuracies. Despite this, many fields, including retail, still utilize it.

6          How to Think Like a Data Scientist or Data Analyst
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/05/think-like-data-scientist-data-analyst.html
Data science is a new and maturing field, with a variety of job functions emerging, from data engineering and data analysis to machine and deep learning. A data scientist must combine scientific, creative and investigative thinking to extract meaning from a range of datasets, and to address the underlying challenge faced by the client.

There is an ever-growing amount of data generated in all areas of life — from retail, transport and finance, to healthcare and medical research.

7          10 Useful Machine Learning Practices For Python Developers
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/05/10-useful-machine-learning-practices-python-developers.html
Sometimes as a data scientist, we forget what we are paid for. We are primarily developers, then researchers, and then maybe mathematicians. Our first responsibility is to quickly develop solutions that are bug-free.

Just because we can make models doesn’t mean we are gods. It doesn’t give us the freedom to write crap code.

Since my start, I have made tremendous mistakes and thought of sharing what I see to be the most common skills for ML engineering. In my opinion, it’s also the most lacking skill in the industry right now.

8          Looking for Opportunity in the Midst of Crisis
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/looking-for-opportunity-in-the-midst-of-crisis/
In nature, stampedes occur when herds of animals are fleeing the threats of predators. Likewise, among humans, we have countless examples of herd behavior, including riots, sporting events, and the hoarding of goods in times of crisis. As researchers who study organizations, we wondered whether the current economic panic concerning the COVID-19 pandemic was also leading to some (understandable) herd behavior among leaders.

9          COVID-19 speeds up global manufacturing, steel production shift
https://blogs.platts.com/2020/05/28/global-manufacturing-steel-production-covid19/
Global manufacturing was in the doldrums for much of last year, pulled down by weak demand in key consumer-driven segments amid ongoing trade tensions and slower economic growth.

Countries such as Japan, South Korea and Germany that rely on exports found it tougher to sell to overseas customers, while the downturn in auto sales in the United States exemplified what was happening to the sector internationally. When the coronavirus outbreak hit in early 2020, it was akin to kicking manufacturing when it was already down.

10        COVID-19: The toughest leadership test
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/leadership/the-toughest-leadership-test
The coronavirus pandemic has been an epic test of character and determination for millions of people around the world. Nothing compares with the sacrifice of workers on the front lines in hospitals and other essential services. In the business context, CEOs have had to cope with extraordinary demands: for them, the pandemic has been an ultimate leadership test.

11        Conference calamity: Thousands of jobs wiped out as business events grind to a halt because of COVID-19
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/buckner-events-convention-industry-shut-down-1.5584748
It’s no surprise that an industry dedicated to bringing large groups of people together in enclosed spaces would be crippled by the global pandemic.

But the scale of devastation caused by COVID-19 to Canada’s business events industry is mind-boggling.

Hotels, airlines, taxis, event planners, keynote speakers, providers of audio-visual services, restaurants, entertainers — even family farms that supply fresh ingredients to caterers — are all hurting.

12        Is The U.S. Prepared For War With China?
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Is-The-US-Prepared-For-War-With-China.html
Mid-2020 saw the world at war, actual strategic war as far as the Forbidden Palace in Beijing was concerned. This was almost disbelievingly acknowledged by some in Washington, DC, London, Canberra, Ottawa, New Delhi, and Tokyo. It was a war that was viewed tentatively and with incredulity in much of the West because it was a war of a very new type. And it was a war in which the West — for the first time in a century or more — did not write the rules of engagement.

Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 65

Friday, May 22, 2020

Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 65

1          Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Escalating US-China Tensions Encouraging Profit-Taking
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-escalating-us-china-tensions-encouraging-profit-taking-650753

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are down over 5% on Friday as escalating tensions between the United States and China encouraged long investors to take profits ahead of the weekend. Prices were also pressured by concerns over the pace of demand recovery from the coronavirus crisis.

At 10:42 GMT, July WTI crude oil futures are trading $31.80, down $2.12 or -6.25% and July Brent crude oil futures are at $34.18, down $1.88 or -5.21%.

2          Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-lower-as-traders-shrug-off-friendly-eia-storage-report-650767

Natural gas futures are edging lower on Friday but still holding above a pair of major bottoms at $1.822 and $1.802. There was little follow-through to the downside after Thursday’s sharp break. Yesterday’s sell-off came as a surprise since the weekly government storage report came in on the low end of estimates. On Friday, July natural gas futures are trading $1.850, down $0.002 or -0.11%.

3          Weekly Resin Report: Trading Activity Picks Up, as Manufacturers Begin to Reopen
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-trading-activity-picks-manufacturers-begin-reopen/208470720963051

Spot plastics trading continued to improve last week, as an increasing number of temporarily shuttered manufacturing facilities returned to operation, requiring resin to run. Trade flow from both buyers and sellers was fluid and transacted volumes rivaled the average tally seen during the strong first quarter of 2020, reports the PlasticsExchange in its Market Update.

4          Negative pricing seen spreading from oil to gas as European demand slumps
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-gas-idUSKBN22Y1T3
A month after U.S. crude oil prices collapsed into negative territory, European gas markets are facing the prospect of also slipping into the red after a slump in demand and surging inventories pushed prices into low single digits.

5          Sellers beware: Price collapse triggers bartering over oil and gas deals
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-m-a-idUSKBN22X0ID
At a time when most oil companies are slashing budgets, dividends and headcounts to preserve cash, sellers are facing a difficult choice between sweetening the deal or risking losing it altogether.

Premier Oil’s CEO said he is seeking a cheaper price for North Sea assets it agreed to buy from BP for $625 million and Energean is doing the same with a $700 million purchase from Edison.

6          As the economy weakens, capturing savings on oil-based raw materials offers a lifeline to chemical companies.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/chemicals/our-insights/how-to-capture-savings-from-the-oil-price-drop-and-bolster-profits-quickly

The halving of crude-oil prices since early March has created an important opportunity for chemical companies, and all buyers of chemicals, to capture savings on oil-based raw materials. The use of new digital tools gives these companies a chance to capture the impact more quickly than they did in previous oil busts.

But companies should move quickly, since signs that the economic turmoil resulting from the coronavirus crisis could severely reduce chemical-industry profitability have already appeared. Collectively, the chemical industry is one of its own biggest customers. In the current challenging environment, companies will need to do whatever they can to cut their own costs when they buy, while preserving their margins when they sell. Smart procurement moves and efforts to ensure that the sales force doesn’t lower its sales prices could provide a lifeline to more than a few chemicals players.

7          The future of energy after Covid-19: three scenarios
https://www.woodmac.com/news/feature/the-future-of-energy-after-covid-19-three-scenarios/
The coronavirus pandemic has hit the world economy harder than any event since World War 2, and will have a lasting impact on energy demand. As governments around the world have shuttered businesses and restricted freedom of movement for billions of people, consumption of oil, gas and power has fallen.

Demand for oil, in particular, has plummeted as a result of the reductions in road transport and air travel. It will not recover quickly, if ever, to the path it was on before the pandemic hit.

8          Jet Fuel Demand Will Take Years To Recover
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Jet-Fuel-Demand-Will-Take-Years-To-Recover.html
Airlines and aircraft manufacturers face a few years of losses and cost cuts before air travel numbers return to pre-crisis levels. In these several years of a marked downturn for the industry, demand for jet fuel is expected to be the last oil product to see demand recover to levels from 2019.

While oil demand for road transportation already shows signs of recovery as people prefer commuting with their own cars rather than using public transport, demand for jet fuel will probably take much longer—possibly years—to recover, analysts say.

9          China demand insufficient to sustain Asia petrochemical market gains
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/05/22/10510643/insight-china-demand-insufficient-to-sustain-asia-petrochemical-market-gains

China has buoyed petrochemical markets in Asia in recent weeks aided by rising upstream crude prices. But sustaining gains remains a big question mark as the coronavirus pandemic has triggered an unprecedented collapse in demand that could last beyond this year.

The global demand shock and supply disruption that ensued as countries isolated themselves to contain the deadly virus may prove too enormous for a quick fix, given that recovery of the world’s second-largest economy in the second half is uncertain at best since external demand is beat.

10        Asia’s petchem demand stays bleak in new norm uncertainty
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/05/22/10510176/asia-s-petchem-demand-stays-bleak-in-new-norm-uncertainty

Asia’s consumption for many plastics would be limited even as countries ease their lockdowns gradually, as the uncertainty surrounding the new norm in a yet-to-foreseen success against the coronavirus remains.

In the petrochemical chain, a common trend emerges, that is, supply is outstripping demand in general.

11        Russia’s leading petrochemical company Sibur raises $208mn with bonds issue at record low yields
http://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-leading-petrochemical-company-sibur-raises-208mn-with-bonds-issue-at-record-low-yields-183889/

Russia’s leading petrochemical producer Sibur Holding has successfully closed the order book for its BO-01 and BO-02 exchange-traded bond issues, worth RUB10bn ($139mn) and RUB5bn ($69mn) respectively, that pay the lowest ever corportate bond yields, the company said in a statement on May 21.

12        US chem shares mixed as oil rises, stock markets fall
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/05/21/10510145/us-chem-shares-mixed-as-oil-rises-stock-markets-fall

The general markets fell after signs of rising tensions between China and the US.

Among them was the passage in the US Senate of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (Senate Bill 945).

The bill would require public companies to disclose whether they are owned or controlled by a foreign government. The bill’s sponsor, US Senator John Kennedy (Republican-Louisiana), singled out China in his announcement of the legislation.

13        Royalty exemptions could save the day for U.S. oil and gas operators, Rystad says
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/royalty-exemptions-could-save-the-day-for-u-s-oil-and-gas-operators-rystad-says/

Despite the recent relative oil price recovery, dozens of U.S. operators are still threatened by bankruptcies even at a WTI oil price of $30 per barrel. A Rystad Energy analysis shows that royalty exemptions could save the day for many of them.

To begin with, Rystad’s analysis has found that even at an average WTI price of $30 this year, about 73 E&Ps in the U.S. may have to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, with 170 more following in 2021. The number of bankruptcies could climb even more in lower price scenarios.

14        Why bond investors are willing to bet on money-losing Pemex after oil price crash
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-pemex-bonds-analysis-idUSKBN22Y0KN
Mexico’s state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos has seen investor sentiment improve in recent weeks despite sky-high debts, a slump in demand and no clear direction about how the government will turn the money-losing driller around.

15        World’s Third Largest Oil Consumer Sees Very Slow Demand Recovery
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Worlds-Third-Largest-Oil-Consumer-Sees-Very-Slow-Demand-Recovery.html

Crude oil demand in India will take longer to recover than many hope for as the country braces for the worst recession in its history after a two-month lockdown.

Bloomberg reports, citing Indian oil industry executives, that demand for the commodity might take until the end of the year to return to pre-crisis levels after last month, fuel demand at one point dropped by as much as 70 percent.

16        How the Plastics Industry is Providing Solutions During This Time of Crisis
https://www.plasticsindustry.org/blog/how-plastics-industry-providing-solutions-during-time-crisis
The plastics industry is mobilizing to relieve the burden of COVID-19 on the nation’s healthcare system.  Our members are making components for critical care machines, disposable medical items, and single-use packaging for treatments and food. Resin manufacturers are churning out material. Companies have added shifts or switched production lines to supply high demand for personal protective equipment and more. Stories of innovation, hard work and charity are countless.

17        Alaskan and Canadian oil finds new Chinese buyers as their economy restarts
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/5/20/alaskan-and-canadian-oil-finds-new-chinese-buyers-as-their-economy-restarts

Canadian and Alaskan crude that normally travels to the U.S. West Coast is finding a market in China, where demand is almost back to pre-pandemic levels.

The Sofia became the second oil tanker in less than a month to ship Alaskan oil to Qingdao, China, when it left Valdez over the weekend, data compiled by Bloomberg show. At about the same time, the Maria Princess left Vancouver also bound for Qingdao, becoming at least the third oil tanker to sail from British Columbia for China this year. Draft readings indicate the ships were full when they departed.

18        Shell and CNOOC ink deal for $5.6-billion, phase 3 petchems complex in China
http://chemweek.com/CW/Document/111340/Shell-and-CNOOC-ink-deal-for-%2456-billion-phase-3-petchems-complex-in-China

Shell has declined to reveal the expected investment cost but local reports put it at about $5.6 billion. Shell says it is too early to say when the FID will be taken. Naphtha feedstock will be supplied from CNOOC refineries, and from the domestic and international feedstock markets.

19        Global demand for natural gas will drop 2% in 2020 as Covid-19 lockdowns take toll
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/global-demand-for-natural-gas-will-drop-2pct-in-2020-as-covid-19-lockdowns-take-toll/

Commercial and industrial demand for natural gas is declining as most countries around the world impose lockdowns to limit the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. Rystad Energy estimates global natural gas demand to fall by almost 2% this year as a result of the lower activity.

Recycling Renewables and Sustainable Business 36

Friday, May 22, 2020

Recycling Renewables and Sustainable Business 36

1          Google bans A.I. for oil and gas firms after Greenpeace study
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/google-ai-greenpeace-oil-gas.html
Google has pledged to stop building customized artificial intelligence (AI) tools that help oil and gas firms to extract fossil fuels worldwide.

The pledge came after a Greenpeace report on Tuesday highlighted how Google, Microsoft, and Amazon use AI and warehouse servers to help the likes of Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil to locate and retrieve oil and gas deposits from the earth.

A Google spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that the company “will not … build custom AI/ML algorithms to facilitate upstream extraction in the oil and gas industry.”

2          As the Covid-19 crisis hammers the auto industry, electric cars remain a bright spot
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/as-the-covid-19-crisis-hammers-the-auto-industry-electric-cars-remain-a-bright-spot

Electric cars have experienced a decade of rapid growth. Global sales grew by more than 60% every year over the past decade except for 2019, when growth slowed down to 6% as the regulatory environment changed in China and passenger car sales contracted in major markets. Even so, electric vehicle sales still reached 2.2 million last year, securing their highest ever share – 2.6% – of the global car market.

3          The EV Boom Could Accelerate Peak Oil Demand
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-EV-Boom-Could-Accelerate-Peak-Oil-Demand.html
The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically changed the short-term outlook for global vehicle manufacturing industry and sales, including sales of electric vehicles (EVs).

But policy actions to support decarbonization and lower-emission transportation in the post-virus world could accelerate the energy transition and displace larger volumes of oil demand for road transport to the point of bringing peak oil demand closer than previously anticipated.

4          Electric Vehicle Sales to Fall 18% in 2020 but Long-term Prospects Remain Undimmed
https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-to-fall-18-in-2020-but-long-term-prospects-remain-undimmed/

The latest annual Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook, published today by research company BloombergNEF (BNEF), shows electric models accounting for 58% of new passenger car sales globally by 2040, and 31% of the whole car fleet. They will also make up 67% of all municipal buses on the road by that year, plus 47% of two-wheelers[1] and 24% of light commercial vehicles.

5          Renewable energy transition to accelerate on drop in power demand
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/5/20/renewable-energy-transition-to-accelerate-on-drop-in-power-demand

As economies struggle to recover, worldwide electricity consumption will decline 5% in 2020, the most in more than eight decades, according to the International Energy Agency. In the U.S. last week, government analysts projected the nation’s biggest drop on record. And in Europe, analysts say a full recovery could take years.

6          Denmark proposes two giant wind energy islands to meet climate targets
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-denmark-idUSKBN22W1NC
Denmark’s government on Wednesday proposed more than tripling its offshore wind capacity by building two energy islands linked to new wind farms in the Baltic and North seas to help meet ambitious climate change targets.

One of the two hubs, which would be the world’s first, will be located on the Danish Baltic island of Bornholm and the other on an artificial island in the North Sea. Each will have a capacity of at least 2 GW, enough to power four million of Denmark’s 5.8 million homes.

7          Europe Set To Unveil Its $500 Billion ‘Green Deal’
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Europe-Set-To-Unveil-Its-500-Billion-Green-Deal.html

As the world slips into a deep economic recession – and some indicators are as bad as the Great Depression – trillions of dollars are flowing in the form of government stimulus. To date, much of that has been aimed at re-inflating the pre-pandemic economy, particularly in the United States. In fact, the Trump administration has been going further, dealing out benefits to oil and gas while slapping feesretroactively on renewable energy.

8          EU ‘green’ recovery to target buildings, clean power, hydrogen: draft
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-climate-idUSKBN22W2TO
European Union plans for an environmentally-friendly economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic will target building renovation, renewable energy and clean hydrogen fuel, according to a draft document seen by Reuters.

Green hydrogen is seen as crucial to deliver the Commission’s target to decarbonise the EU economy by 2050, by replacing fossil fuels in polluting industrial processes.

9          Australia backs technology in new carbon emissions plan
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-climatechange-idUSKBN22X04T
Australia’s conservative government on Thursday released a fresh plan to tackle climate change, targetting the use of gas, hydrogen, batteries and carbon capture, while avoiding the contentious issue of setting a carbon price.

Australia, one of the world’s biggest carbon emitters per capita, has struggled for more than a decade to formulate a long-term plan for a low carbon economy amid a politically charged debate between fossil fuel supporters and opponents.

10        Plastics Crisis: Quantifying Data for Transparency
https://www.cleantech.com/plastics-crisis-quantifying-data-for-transparency/
By 2050, the weight of all the plastic in our oceans could exceed the weight of all its fish, according to estimates made by The Ellen MacArthur Foundation.  In 2017, only 14% of plastic packaging was recycled, representing $80–120 billion in lost value. These hold-your-head-in-your hands figures tell us that corporates, governments and consumers are in the dark about a number of questions.  Where is all the plastic waste? How much of it, exactly,  is there? What happens to it? And most importantly, what is being done about it?

11        Italian homeowners can now install PV systems for free
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/22/italian-homeowners-can-now-install-pv-systems-for-free/
The Italian government has allocated €55 billion ($60 billion) in stimulus perks through the Relaunch Decree on Economic Stimulus Measures to help revive the country’s economy as it slowly exits its Covid-19 lockdown.

The measures include an increase in the so-called “eco-bonus” for building-renovation projects from 65% to 110% and a jump in support for PV installations and storage systems associated with such renovation projects, from 50% of costs to 110%.

12        Mexico ready to negotiate over power market shake-up
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-energy-idUSKBN22X2M1
Mexico’s president on Thursday said he was ready to negotiate over changes to the electricity market that angered firms and foreign allies, opening the door to a potential compromise that could ease tensions over energy policy.

Measures taken by the government in recent weeks to reduce the influence of private energy producers provoked protests from the European Union, Canada and Mexico’s most powerful business associations.

13        Emerging opportunities in industrial sustainability
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/reimagining-industrial-operations

Ever since the steam engine helped launch the Industrial Revolution, large-scale operations have boosted living standards, provided richer choices than our ancestors dreamed of—and generated unintended consequences, including pollution. The COVID-19 pandemic presents an unforeseen challenge to industrial operators as they face the immediate impact of plummeting demand for many products, as well as pressing needs to ensure the safety of employees. Yet even as industries grapple with structural changes, and as societies and economies pivot to the “next normal,” companies themselves have a window of opportunity to adapt their operations to help reduce the disruption that climate change will ultimately bring. In this compilation, McKinsey experts and corporate leaders describe emerging opportunities for industrial operators to help lead the way to a lower-carbon future.

14        Will climate change decrease the food security of the world’s breadbaskets?
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/will-the-worlds-breadbaskets-become-less-reliable

Climate change could affect food production through both continuous environmental changes—for example, increasing temperatures and changes to precipitation patterns—and more frequent episodes of acute stress, such as drought, heat waves, and excessive precipitation. The COVID-19 pandemic is exposing weaknesses in the global food system which we find is already vulnerable to climate change as a growing population depends on four key crops with high geographic concentration of production.

15        Renewable energy should be at the heart of virus recovery plans: IEA
https://www.solardaily.com/reports/Renewable_energy_should_be_at_the_heart_of_virus_recovery_plans_IEA_999.html

The agency, which had expected 2020 to be a bumper year for green energy, slashed its two-year forecast for growth in renewable capacity by nearly 10 percent.

It cited supply chain disruptions, construction delays, social distancing measures and financing challenges.

While sectors supplying electricity — solar, wind and hydropower — would be largely resilient in the crisis, it said, the market for biofuels used mainly in transport would be “radically” altered as global travel is frozen and oil prices plummet.

16        EU Plans To Reduce Pesticides By 50%
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2020/05/20/eu-plans-to-reduce-pesticides-by-50/

The plan includes a target of reducing the use of pesticides by 50% in the next decade. The plan would also reduce sales of antimicrobials for farmed animals by 50%, and the use of fertilizers by 20%, by 2030. The share of organic farming would also be increased by 25% by 2030 – up from the current 8%.

17        Climate change is turning parts of Antarctica green, say scientists
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/climate-change-turning-parts-antarctica-green-say-scientists-algae

Scientists have mapped “the beginning of a new ecosystem” on the Antarctic peninsula as microscopic algae bloom across the surface of the melting snow, tinting the surface green and potentially creating a source of nutrition for other species.

Business Intelligence and Analytics 65

Friday, May 22, 2020

Business Intelligence and Analytics 65

1          The Post-COVID-19 World Will Be Less Global and Less Urban
https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/post-covid-19-world-will-less-global-less-urban/
The COVID-19 pandemic will reverse the trends of globalization and urbanization, increasing the distance between countries and among people. These changes will make for a safer and more resilient world, but one that is also less prosperous, stable and fulfilling, writes Wharton Dean Geoffrey Garrett in this opinion piece. (This article originally appeared as part of Penn on the World after COVID-19, a joint project of Penn Global and Perry World House.)

2          Looking for Opportunity in the Midst of Crisis
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/looking-for-opportunity-in-the-midst-of-crisis/
In nature, stampedes occur when herds of animals are fleeing the threats of predators. Likewise, among humans, we have countless examples of herd behavior, including riots, sporting events, and the hoarding of goods in times of crisis. As researchers who study organizations, we wondered whether the current economic panic concerning the COVID-19 pandemic was also leading to some (understandable) herd behavior among leaders.

3          Investors look beyond drug makers as hunt for Covid-19 treatment heats up
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSKBN22Y1L3
A record 48% of fund managers are overweight healthcare stocks, a BofA survey showed, and the S&P 500 healthcare sector is up nearly 34% since its March low. Hopes for a treatment have also sparked outsize rallies in the shares of companies such as Moderna and Inovio Pharmaceutcials, up 242% and 3331% since the start of the year, respectively, as of Thursday’s close.

4          Attract. Convert. Retain. Master Lifecycle Marketing Today.
https://learn.g2.com/lifecycle-marketing
The need to stand out in a crowded marketplace is important across all industries.

If you want to increase your conversion rates and encourage customer loyalty, it is more important than ever to invest in the right strategies and technologies. To be able to do this, you need an understanding of the customer and where they are in their buying cycle. This is why customer lifecycle marketing is essential for the marketer to grasp.

5          Taking Your Business Online: 6 Tips and Tools to Get There
https://www.business2community.com/online-marketing/taking-your-business-online-6-tips-and-tools-to-get-there-02312506

An online business comes with a different set of challenges that entrepreneurs and leadership teams must meet. In today’s digital world, online businesses face stiff competition. If you want to leverage the benefits of the internet and create an online business that stands out from the crowd, here are six of the most important tips and tools to help you do that.

6          Top 5 online courses to get you started with Data Science today.
https://towardsdatascience.com/top-5-online-courses-to-get-you-started-with-data-science-today-a3752bc6d7d8

Data Science is still one of the most popular professions in 2020. In fact, the demand is skyrocketing to the point where qualms arise that the data science skill gap will perpetuate in widening, as the supply of data wizards fail to catch up to the demand of the companies around the world.

7          Don’t Let the Pressure Kill Your People
https://www.business2community.com/workplace-culture/dont-let-the-pressure-kill-your-people-02312856

According to the Mental Health Foundation’s 2018 study, 74% of people in the UK had felt so stressed in the past year that they had been overwhelmed or unable to cope. In 2019, the American Institute of Stress reported that 83% of U.S. workers suffer specifically from work-related stress. All of this was a serious problem well before the advent of COVID-19, and we can be sure that it won’t be diminished as the world works to recover from a global pandemic!

8          Pentagon halts rare earths funding for Lynas, MP Materials
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-rareearths-exclusive-idUSKBN22Y1VC
The U.S. Department of Defense has reversed its decision to fund two projects to process rare earth minerals for military weapons, one of which has controversial ties to China, according to three sources and a government document seen by Reuters.

9          New normal for operations: Resilient and reimagined
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/jump-starting-resilient-and-reimagined-operations

The coronavirus pandemic has radically changed demand for products and services in every sector, while exposing points of weakness and fragility in global supply chains and service networks. At the same time, it has been striking how well and how fast many companies have adapted, achieving new levels of visibility, agility, productivity, and end-customer connectivity—while also preserving their cash. Leading retailers have boosted their e-commerce capabilities, delivering food to thousands of customers confined in their homes. One European healthcare provider abandoned its two-year plan for the rollout of e-health services and deployed the new remote treatment system to thousands of patients in only ten days.

10        What You Need to Craft a Compelling Message
https://www.business2community.com/communications/what-you-need-to-craft-a-compelling-message-02312181

What does it mean to have a message that is compelling to clients and prospects? To compel, captivate and engage them you need to address what is important to them. You must have these facts before you sit down to craft your relevant and human message. In my experience, here’s what it takes to create a truly compelling message – one that connects with your customers and prospects.

11        Supply chain risk management is back
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/supply-chain-risk-management-is-back

Today’s complex and long supply chains are almost inevitably subject to disruption. But the stakes seem to have risen, whether due to intensifying trade disputes and political upheavals (of which Brexit is only one example), or to high-cost natural disasters plaguing more of the world.

As a result, we hear more global companies questioning how to assess and manage these risks and prepare their supply chains accordingly. Which precautionary measures make sense, and how much do they differ by industry? We conducted research by interviewing supply-chain managers across Europe to understand how they assess risks, what they do to prepare, and how they respond to disruptions.

12        Automated Machine Learning: The Free eBook
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/05/automated-machine-learning-free-ebook.html
It’s a new week, and what better time to get your hands on another free eBook? We have been highlighting a new such installment weekly for the better part of the past few months, doing our best to single out and share top learning materials for those stuck at home right now, or really for anyone interested in learning a new concept or brushing up on what they already know.

Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 64

Friday, May 15, 2020

Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 64

1          Has Demand For Oil Already Peaked?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Has-Demand-For-Oil-Already-Peaked.html
In fact, some are wondering whether the world will ever get back to 100 mb/d of oil demand. Even oil executives have their doubts. Royal Dutch Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden recently suggested that a rebound is unlikely, even looking out beyond 2020. “We do not expect a recovery of oil prices or demand for our products in the medium term,” he said.

2          Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Gains Extended Amid Signs of China Demand Pickup
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-gains-extended-amid-signs-of-china-demand-pickup-649463

Prices have ticked up in the past two weeks as some countries relaxed coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns to allow factories and shops to reopen. U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading higher on Friday, while breaking out of a seven-day trading range.

3          Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-technical-factors-underpinning-prices-649469

Natural gas futures are edging higher on Friday, supported by technical buying due to oversold conditions, and a government storage report that fell slightly short of expectations. Spot prices, however, remained negative across most of the country with Natural Gas Intelligence’s (NGI) National Average down 6.5 cents to $1.415.

4          Weekly Resin Report: Market May Have Hit Bottom, for Now, as PE, PP Prices Record Slight Uptick
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-market-may-have-hit-bottom-now-pe-pp-prices-record-slight-uptick/208657181963009

The spotty reopening of the larger economy has trickled down to the spot resin market, as buyers began to return in anticipation of firing up processing facilities that had been shuttered. The supply situation has also tightened significantly: Producers have reduced reactor rates, slowing their resin output while aggressively liquidating surplus resin to eager international buyers, mostly in the far east, reports the PlasticsExchange in its Market Update. Recovering crude oil and feedstock costs also contributed to improved market sentiment and together translated to a $0.01/lb spot increase for most commodity-grade polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) resins last week

5          ICIS global petrochemical index plunges
https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/12052020/icis-global-petrochemical-index-plunges/

The global index stands at a level last seen in November 2003 and is just below that in January 2009.

Each of the regional components of the global index fell sharply month on month as petrochemical and plastic prices fell across the board. The index charts the largely contract and average monthly price movements of a basket of the 12 major petrochemicals and plastics.

6          Petrochemical sector braced for uncertainty
https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/11052020/petrochemical-sector-braced-for-uncertainty/

The impact of the coronavirus lockdowns on the oil, gas and chemicals industries’ integrated value chains is radically shifting relationships and profitability, according to Nigel Davies, Insights Editor, ICIS.

It is also making planning virtually impossible, as BASF suggested last week.

The environment around refining and chemical margins remains challenging, Shell CEO Ben van Beurden also said this week.

7          Taps closing! US shut-ins to reach at least 2 million bpd in June as oil producers walk the walk
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/taps-closing-us-shut-ins-to-reach-at-least-2-million-bpd-in-June-as-oil-producers-walk-the-walk/

US oil producers have been expected for some time to have to shut down oil production as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, but they were initially slow to move. Now that profitability and storage limitations have started to hurt, the curtailment wave has accelerated. A Rystad Energy analysis shows that gross US cuts could reach at least 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, including liquids.

8          Global oil refining could rebound in June, but margins weak: IEA
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-refining-idUSKBN22Q2A5
Global oil refining production could start rebounding in June, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, but refiners’ margins may be squeezed due to rising crude prices as producers slashed output much faster than expected.

Refiners throttled back output globally as the coronavirus pandemic sent billions of people into lockdown and cut fuel demand by 30%. Crude prices crashed, prompting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut oil output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd), while other nations have also reduced output.

9          ‘Early signs’ of crude market rebalancing, petchems to gain long term – IEA chief
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/05/14/10507423/early-signs-of-crude-market-rebalancing-petchems-to-gain-long-term-iea-chief

Some petrochemicals end markets like those for medical equipment and disinfectants have staged a revival during the coronavirus pandemic, a trend that is likely to stay in the long term, said Fatih Birol.

“I wouldn’t think the petchems industry will be so badly affected [in the long term] as other sectors of the oil consuming sectors,” he said, speaking to reporters in Paris.

10        U.S. ethane-based petrochemical plants challenged by low crude prices
https://www.bicmagazine.com/industry/refining-petchem/pu-u-s-ethane-based-petrochemical-plants-challenged-by-low-c/

The Covid-19 pandemic turned the table for U.S. petrochemical companies that saw cost advantages erode for their ethane crackers in relation to those that use naphtha as feedstock, as reported by Petrochemical Update.

Plunging oil prices in 2020 turned things around for U.S. crackers that were built to use ethane as feedstock in what seemed until recently a sure bet to produce the world’s lowest-cost ethylene.

11        Oil Up on Supply Cuts and Demand Recovery
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_up_on_supply_cuts_and_demand_recovery-15-may-2020-162102-article/

Futures in New York are up about 14% this week after closing above $27 a barrel on Thursday for the first time in over a month. China’s industrial output increased in April for the first time since the outbreak, signaling economic recovery aided by government stimulus efforts. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has slashed supply to its customers in the U.S., Europe and Asia as OPEC and its allies reduce production by almost 10 million barrels a day.

12        EIA expects lower natural gas production in 2020
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43755
In its May 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. marketed natural gas production will decrease by 5% in 2020 because of a weakening economic outlook from the impact of efforts to reduce the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). EIA expects U.S. marketed natural gas production to average 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020, down from 99.2 Bcf/d in 2019.

13        U.S.-bound Saudi oil could hurt prices and disrupt stabilizing markets
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/5/15/us-bound-saudi-oil-could-hurt-prices-and-disrupt-stabilizing-markets

Over 30 tankers laden are set to arrive in the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Coast during May and June, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The more than 50 million barrels of Saudi crude on the water threaten to disrupt a positive supply development: U.S. crude stockpiles declined for the first time since January and inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub contracted by the most in months.

14        China attracts petrochemical exports as global demand sags; inventories rising
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/05/14/10507205/insight-china-attracts-petrochemical-exports-as-global-demand-sags-inventories-rising

China’s petrochemical industry faces yet another challenge – rising inventories and congestion at ports – as global supply far exceeds demand with the country’s own exports hit hard by the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.

Demand for finished goods from two of China’s traditional export destinations, the US and Europe, has shrunk as their wilted economies are slowly trying to recover.

15        Global auto sales slump, steel price weaken on lockdowns
https://blogs.platts.com/2020/05/14/global-autos-steel-coil-prices-coronavirus-lockdown/
Vehicle markets saw their first quarter performance take a beating, with existing weak demand pummeled by the coronavirus pandemic as countries around the world reacted by going into lockdown.

GM suspended its 2020 profit outlook amid the uncertainty, after it added $16 billion to its cash reserves by tapping its credit lines.

16        Production of graphite, lithium and cobalt
https://www.argusmedia.com/pages/NewsBody.aspx?id=2105669&menu=yes
Production of graphite, lithium and cobalt may need to rise by nearly 500pc by 2050 from 2018 levels to meet demand from energy storage technologies in the clean energy transition, the World Bank said.

But these minor metals, which a new World Bank report terms concentrated minerals, are needed for just one or two technologies and so possess higher demand uncertainty, given technological disruption and deployment could significantly impact their demand.

17        Sibur’s Q1 earnings hurt by pandemic, partial gains from Zapsibneftekhim output
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/051520-siburs-q1-earnings-hurt-by-pandemic-partial-gains-from-zapsibneftekhim-output

The company’s Q1 polypropylene sales rose by 87.3% to 243,000 mt and polyethylene sales increased by more than 100% to 132,000 mt.

Sibur said its new Zapsibneftekhim facility in Tobolsk, Russia — having completed its start up and commissioning works — also contributed in the reduction of LPG sales by the company by 29.9% to 1 million mt. The naphtha levels remained steady at 298,000 mt in Q1 compared to the same time period in 2019.

18        How Accurate Are EIA And API Inventory Reports?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Accurate-Are-EIA-And-API-Inventory-Reports.html
Oil markets have had yet another confusing week, this time not just because of the coronavirus and all the media attention that has garnered. But this week, disparate crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) left traders wondering which set of inventory change data–which is supposed to be representative of the balance between supply and demand–was “the right data”.

19        Too much LNG: Here are the producers better positioned to cut output as Covid-19 erases profits
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/too-much-lng-here-are-the-producers-better-positioned-to-cut-output-as-covid-19-erases-profits/

As global liquefied natural gas (LNG) benchmark prices continue to fall due to oversupply on account of Covid-19, LNG producers with short-run marginal costs (SMRCs) that exceed spot prices are increasingly looking to curtail production.

A Rystad Energy analysis finds that those best positioned to reduce volumes while suffering the least possible financial damage are APAC LNG terminals, specifically the Eastern Australia projects and NWS LNG, plus some US plants that have been operational for a longer period of time such as Sabine Pass and Cove Point.

20        U.S. commodities watchdog issues blunt warning over oil volatility
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-cftc-letter-kemp-idUSKBN22Q222
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has written to exchanges, brokers and clearers in unusually forthright terms to remind them of their obligation to ensure orderly trading and commodity pricing.

The CFTC’s letter, sent on Wednesday, was issued in the wake of unusually high volatility and negative prices in the light sweet crude oil futures contract (WTI) for delivery in May on the penultimate day of trading last month.

21        Supermajors’ first quarter earnings were bad, and will likely get worse
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/5/11/supermajors-first-quarter-earnings-were-bad-and-will-likely-get-worse

Big Oil’s generous dividends have long been its main attraction to investors. But thanks to Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden they are no longer sacrosanct, after he slashed his company’s payout by two thirds.

“No CEO wants to have on their track record a cut to the dividend,” van Beurden told reporters, after doing just that. Now the taboo is broken, others may follow.

Recycling Renewables and Sustainable Business 35

Friday, May 15, 2020

Recycling Renewables and Sustainable Business 35

1          Trump Administration Approves Largest U.S. Solar Project Ever
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trump-Administration-Approves-Largest-US-Solar-Project-Ever.html

The U.S. Department of the Interior approved this week the biggest solar project in the United States ever—an estimated US$1-billion solar plus battery storage project in Nevada.

Australia’s Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners and California-based Arevia Power now have the green light to build and operate the Gemini Solar Project some 30 miles northeast of Las Vegas in Clark County, Nevada. The project will consist of a 690-MW photovoltaic solar electric generating facility plus a battery storage facility. The project will be the world’s eighth-largest solar power facility and is expected to generate enough electricity to power 260,000 homes in the Las Vegas area and potential energy markets in Southern California, the Department of the Interior said.

2          Tesla’s secret batteries aim to rework the math for electric cars and the grid
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-exclusive-idUSKBN22Q1WC
Electric car maker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) plans to introduce a new low-cost, long-life battery in its Model 3 sedan in China later this year or early next that it expects will bring the cost of electric vehicles in line with gasoline models, and allow EV batteries to have second and third lives in the electric power grid.

New, low-cost batteries designed to last for a million miles of use and enable electric Teslas to sell profitably for the same price or less than a gasoline vehicle are just part of Musk’s agenda, people familiar with the plans told Reuters.

3          Can Rice University’s Hydrogen ‘Leaf’ Technology Be A Game Changer?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/05/12/can-rice-universitys-hydrogen-leaf-technology-be-a-game-changer/

With oil markets in turmoil amidst the global economic shutdown, competing green fuel sources are getting extra attention. One such promising alternative energy is hydrogen (H2) power. Hydrogen fuel cells – the growing commercial application of hydrogen energy – are a battery-like technology that use H2 as an input to create electricity, leaving heat and water as the only waste. Recently, Texas’ Rice University unveiled a potential breakthrough in hydrogen fuel generation – the “artificial leaf.”

4          Hydrogen on oil and gas industry’s decarbonisation horizon
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/hydrogen-on-oil-and-gas-decarbonisation-horizon/
Hydrogen has surged up the priority list of many oil and gas organizations, taking a primary position in the sector’s decarbonisation efforts, according to a new report by DNV GL.

The classification society said on Thursday that a fifth of senior oil and gas industry professionals claimed their organization was already actively entering the hydrogen market.

5          There’s a lot of buzz about ‘green’ hydrogen, but actual projects are slow in coming
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/what-on-earth-newsletter-green-hydrogen-power-1.5570022
Hydrogen has been proven to be a zero-emissions source of energy, capable of fuelling cars, trucks and power plants. It has powered space shuttles for 60 years. But the economics of it have always been in question.

“We are seeing a bit of an acceleration in the number of small pilot projects which are being announced,” said Kobad Bhavnagri, head of industrial decarbonization at research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

6          The Double-Whammy Negative Impact on US EV Sales
https://evadoption.com/low-gas-prices-the-double-whammy-negative-impact-on-us-ev-sales/
The COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on supply chains and consumer spending will have a negative effect on electric vehicle sales in the US, likely for the next 12-18 months. But a potential double whammy impact on EV sales is the lowest gas prices that many regions have seen in the last decade or more.

7          Green energy boom will require shift to ‘climate-smart’ mining – World Bank
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/52467
Climate-smart principles must steer the global search for the minerals and metals required by the green energy boom to make sure the process remains sustainable, according to the World Bank.

In a new report, the global body concluded that sourcing graphite, lithium and others for renewables in enough volumes – 3 billion tonnes – to keep global heating within 2°C by 2050 would carry emissions equal to only 6% of the footprint of fossil fuels.

8          G20 business leaders’ energy transition investments are focusing on battery storage, EVs
https://www.energy-storage.news/news/g20-business-leaders-energy-transition-investments-are-focusing-on-battery

A survey of over 2,000 “senior business leaders” in G20 countries has found that electric vehicles and battery storage are the most popular assets to invest in among non-power generation technologies in the energy sector.

Law firm Ashurst has produced a 40-page research report on the global energy market and how it is changing, finding that 46% of respondents have invested in or are committed to investing in battery energy storage. Ashurst’s report, Powering Change – Energy in Transition, also found that 43% have already invested in or are committed to investing in electric vehicles (EVs). Solar energy was by far the low carbon generation technology of high present and future investment.

9          EIA expects energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to fall 11% this year
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43715
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 11% in 2020. If realized, this decline would represent the largest decline in not only percentage but also absolute terms in EIA’s energy-related CO2 series that dates back to 1949. In EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions are forecast to fall more than the 5% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020.

10        Norway wealth fund excludes Glencore, Anglo American, RWE, others for coal use and production
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-swf-coalcoal-idUSKBN22P164
Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund said on Wednesday it was excluding Glencore (GLEN.L), Anglo American (AAL.L), RWE (RWEG.DE), Sasol (SOLJ.J) and AGL Energy(AGL.AX) for their use and production of coal under updated ethical guidelines.

Another set of companies – BHP (BHP.AX) (BHPB.L), Uniper (UN01.DE), Enel (ENEI.MI) and Vistra Energy (VST.N) – were put under observation for possible exclusion at a later stage if they do not address their use or production of coal.

11        Green energy firms on track to deliver multibillion-pound windfarms
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/13/green-energy-firms-on-track-to-deliver-multi-billion-pound-wind-farms

Britain’s biggest green energy companies are on track to deliver multibillion-pound windfarm investments across the north-east of England and Scotland to help power a cleaner economic recovery.

Scottish Power plans to “repower” Scotland’s oldest commercial windfarm as part of a £150m scheme to develop a clean energy cluster in central Scotland capable of supplying 100,000 homes with green electricity.

12        Renewable Energy Sector Sheds 600,000 Jobs In Pandemic
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Renewable-Energy-Sector-Sheds-600000-Jobs-In-Pandemic.html

The renewable energy industry in the United States has lost close to 600,000 jobs since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, a report from BW Research Partnership has revealed.

Most of these jobs were lost during April, the research firm said, at 447,200, or triple the number of jobs the industry lost in March. The total job loss so far constitutes as much as 17 percent of total employment in the industry, BW Research said.

13        Mexico’s renewable clampdown puts Neoen’s ultra-competitive PV plant in limbo
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/52466
Operators are starting to feel the impacts of Mexico’s recent decision to block renewable project connections, with a major solar project paralysed weeks after coming online.

In recent days, Neoen revealed it is set to lose millions every month after its 375MWp El Llano solar PV installation was put on hold by power market operator CENACE, which moved earlier in May to block the compulsory grid tests for all renewable plants nationwide.

14        WoodMac: Global Solar Market Set to Resume Growth in 2021 as Coronavirus Impact Fades
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/covid-19-lockdowns-will-drag-down-2020-global-solar-outlook

The global solar market is expected to stay nearly flat between 2019 and 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and its economic impacts, according to Wood Mackenzie. But a significant increase in demand is now expected between 2020 and 2021 as the industry rebounds.

15        Lifestyle Packaging develops ground-breaking formula to enhance biodegradability of plastic packaging
https://www.britishplastics.co.uk/materials/lifestyle-packaging-develops-ground-breaking-formula-to-enha/
Lifestyle Packaging has introduced BioPAC to the UK market, a ground-breaking formula that will degrade plastic packaging in 10 years, 100-200 times faster than the natural lifespan of plastic.

The unique plastic additive is added into the base polymer – such as PP, PE, PS, PET, and other major resin types – and enhances its biodegradability without the need for UV or high temperatures.

16        Floating Wind Farms on an Upward Wave
https://www.altenergymag.com/article/2020/05/floating-wind-farms-on-an-upward-wave/33043
Offshore wind farming has been part of renewable energy collection for almost three decades, long enough for the world’s first traditional offshore wind farm, Vindeby, located off Denmark’s coast,  to be recently decommissioned and dismantled after decades of use.  Orsted, who owned the site, stated the decommissioning went smoothly but took longer than expected because of foundation and concrete rubble removal.

17        Microplastics discovered blowing ashore in sea breezes
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/12/microplastics-discovered-blowing-ashore-in-sea-breezes

Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of mismanaged waste could be blowing ashore on the ocean breeze every year, according to scientists who have discovered microplastics in sea spray.

The study, by researchers at the University of Strathclyde and the Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées at the University of Toulouse, found tiny plastic fragments in sea spray, suggesting they are being ejected by the sea in bubbles. The findings, published in the journal Plos One, cast doubt on the assumption that once in the ocean, plastic stays put, as well as on the widespread belief in the restorative power of sea breeze.

18        Storing wind and solar with new gravity-based system
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/11/storing-wind-and-solar-with-new-gravity-based-system/
Scottish start-up Gravitricity has developed a gravity energy storage system it says is perfect for storing solar and wind power.

A 16m-high rig uses the clean power to raise a mass in a 150-1500m shaft and discharges the electricity thus ‘stored’ by releasing the mass to rotate an electric generator.

Gravitricity said the mass used can range from 500 to 5,000 tons and the electricity discharged could power 30,000 nearby homes for two hours.

Business Intelligence and Analytics 64

Friday, May 15, 2020

Business Intelligence and Analytics 64

1          Is the COVID-19 Outbreak a Black Swan or the New Normal?
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/is-the-covid-19-outbreak-a-black-swan-or-the-new-normal/
Economic resilience in the face of black swans requires companies to do things differently. Our current economic model is based on pursuing efficiency: Find the quickest and cheapest way to do or make something, and you likely have a time or cost advantage. But global supply chains that optimize for centralization and reduced costs have serious potential weaknesses.

2          How to build data architecture to drive innovation
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/sales-automation-the-key-to-boosting-revenue-and-reducing-costs

Sales automation holds the potential to reduce the cost of sales by freeing up time spent on administration and reporting and to unlock additional revenue by automating outreach to customers in the sales funnel. But many decision makers are not aware—or have not taken advantage—of the value that sales automation can create across a growing range of use cases.

3          Crushing coronavirus economic uncertainty
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/crushing-coronavirus-uncertainty-the-big-unlock-for-our-economies

There are three main paths forward that leaders around the world are exploring:

Balancing act. This path involves a staged reopening of the economy, controlling the virus spread within the capacity of the healthcare system.

Near-zero virus. This path means opening the economy while imposing virus-control measures that stop short of a lockdown; these appear to be effective in preventing virus spread.

Transition act. This path involves switching from a balancing-act path to a near-zero-virus path by implementing elements of near-zero-virus packages as soon as they are ready.

4          How coronavirus is reshaping Europe in dangerous ways
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/how-coronavirus-is-reshaping-europe-in-dangerous-ways

We are still in the early chapters of the Covid-19 story and it’s too soon to judge the full impact of the pandemic. But one can tentatively discern six negative trends for Europe. These had all emerged before the virus struck but are now accelerating. In various ways they are all likely to help the cause of anti-EU populists: greater economic autarky, stronger borders and more hostility to green policies.

5          Taiwan’s TSMC to build Arizona chip plant as U.S.-China tech rivalry escalates
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-semiconductors-tsmc-idUSKBN22Q38T
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (2330.TW), the biggest contract chipmaker, said it plans to build a $12 billion factory in Arizona in an apparent win for the Trump administration’s efforts to wrestle global tech supply chains back from China.

The plan, which will create over 1,600 jobs, comes as U.S. President Donald Trump steps up criticism of Chinese trade practices and Beijing’s handling of the novel coronavirus ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election.

6          U.S. moves to cut Huawei off from global chip suppliers
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-huawei-tech-exclusive-idUSKBN22R1KC
The Trump administration on Friday moved to block shipments of semiconductors to Huawei Technologies from global chipmakers, in an action that could ramp up tensions with China.

7          Customer Churn Prediction: A Global Performance Study
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/05/customer-churn-prediction-global-performance-study.html
Customer retention is one of the major challenges in any industry. Many firms realize that their existing customers are their most valuable asset, and it is more beneficial to keep and satisfy existing customers than to acquire new customers. Several studies such as the research done by Frederick Reichheld of Bain & Company (the inventor of the net promoter score) suggests that increasing customer retention rates by 5% increases profits by 25% to 95%.

8          6 Negotiating Tactics for Fast Growth-Minded Businesses
https://www.business2community.com/strategy/6-negotiating-tactics-for-fast-growth-minded-businesses-02310664

In business, it would be difficult if not impossible to achieve a notable measure of success without having inked a significant number of agreements with other parties—most appreciably with conflicts inherent in the process having been pleasingly overcome for all involved. Whether negotiating a sale with an existing customer or prospective new account, contracts with vendors, deals with company and industry stakeholders, a M&A situation, the salary of a new hire or any other, negotiating is a fundamental driver of a company’s prosperity.

9          Online Marketing Strategies During COVID-19
https://www.business2community.com/online-marketing/online-marketing-strategies-during-covid-19-02310876

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted a lot of things, and it’s had a profound impact on online marketing. While more people than ever before are turning to the internet in the wake of social distancing, those people are concerned about their finances and future and aren’t spending as much. You have a bigger audience to reach and interact with, but it’s going to be harder to convince them to connect and part with their money.

10        Why AI Is the Answer to Oil Spills
https://insidebigdata.com/2020/05/15/why-ai-is-the-answer-to-oil-spills/
Artificial intelligence is becoming an increasingly common part of business across many industries. You’ve likely heard of AI’s potential in areas like factory automation and data analysis, but it doesn’t end there. It may be the solution to preventing and responding to disasters like oil spills.

Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 63

Friday, May 8, 2020

Energy Petrochemicals and Plastics 63

1          U.S. drillers expected to slash oil & gas rigs to lowest ever
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-rigs-baker-hughes-idUSKBN22K0IL
The number of oil and gas rigs operating in the United States is expected to hit an all-time low this week – reflecting data going back 80 years – as the energy industry slashes output and spending to deal with the coronavirus-led crash in fuel demand.

2          Oil Up as Market Starts to Rebalance
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_up_as_market_starts_to_rebalance-08-may-2020-162026-article/
Oil headed for its first back-to-back weekly gain since February as output cuts from the biggest producers and a nascent recovery in demand began to rebalance a market awash with crude.

Futures in New York rose toward $25 a barrel on Friday and are up around 24% so far this week. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, raised the cost of almost all grades for June, suggesting it’s more interested in supporting a recovery in prices than winning market share.

3          Covid-19 demand update: Oil seen down 10.9%, jet fuel down 33.6%, road fuel down 11.1% in 2020
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/covid-19-demand-update-oil-seen-down-10point9-jet-fuel-down-33point6-road-fuel-down-11point1-in-2020/

In another consecutive revision of our weekly estimates, our newest forecast for oil demand now projects a decrease of 10.9% for 2020, or 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd) year-over-year. Our estimates show that total oil demand in 2019 was approximately 99.5 million bpd, which is now projected to decline to 88.7 million bpd in 2020. To put the number into context, last week we projected a decrease to 88.8 million bpd.

3          Why This Oil Rally Won’t Last

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-This-Oil-Rally-Wont-Last23477.html
Oil prices have rallied as traders believe the depths of demand destruction may be coming to an end with economies beginning to reopen. But some analysts are warning that the oil price rally may be premature.

“We believe that the current euphoria on the oil market is premature,” Commerzbank warned. Pointing to the December WTI contract rallying to $33 per barrel on Tuesday, the investment bank said there is limited upside from here.

4          Weekly Resin Report: Producers Reduce Output to Combat Over-Supply, Sliding Prices
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-producers-reduce-output-combat-over-supply-sliding-prices/2135829262962

Spot resin trading was mixed last week. Polyethylene (PE) business improved but was offset by slower polypropylene (PP) sales. Overall spot prices ended mostly steady, though there was deep producer discounting along the way to help improve month-end sales. It remains to be seen if one-off deal levels will return in May, reports the PlasticsExchange in its Market Update.

5          Asian spot LNG prices recover a little on improving demand
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-lng-idUSKBN22K104
The average LNG price for June delivery into northeast Asia rose to an estimated $2 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) this week, up 20 cents from the previous week, traders said.

That followed three straight weeks of decline.

While lockdowns are easing in some markets, such as in China and South Korea, containment policies elsewhere are hampering their manufacturing exports and dragging on recoveries.

6          DuPont Throttling Back Plastics Production by Close to 50%
https://www.ptonline.com/news/dupont-throttling-back-plastics-production-by-close-to-50
In preparation for further downslides in industries such as automotive, aerospace, oil & gas and construction, DuPont to reduce plastics production capacity.

In announcing its first quarter 2020 financial results in the first week of May, DuPont, Wilmington, Del., confirmed that it was temporarily shutting down close to 50% of its plastics production. This in anticipation of further downslides in key industries such as automotive (which accounts for about 15% of the company’s sales), aerospace, gas & oil, and construction.

7          Did The Plastics Boom End Before It Even Started?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Did-The-Plastics-Boom-End-Before-It-Even-Started.html
Three years ago, the UN declared plastic pollution a global crisis, more than three decades after the discovery of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch–a collection of marine debris 2x the size of Texas. The Year 2020 was supposed to be a watershed moment for the plastic industry after dozens of state and local policymakers planned to make the ultimate shift away from plastics. They clearly underestimated the sheer tenacity of the plucky industry and a global pandemic.

8          Coronavirus, oil price crash – impact on chemicals
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/05/08/10462108/topic-page-coronavirus-oil-price-crash-impact-on-chemicals

Shares of petrochemical firms in Asia traded higher on Friday, taking the cue from gains in global crude futures on hopes that demand would pick up amid easing lockdown measures.

In the isopropanol (IPA) market, demand in southeast Asia fell for the first time since mid-March given competition posed by an influx of ethanol in some countries.

9          U.S. motorists start returning to the road
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-prices-kemp-idUSKBN22J1WC
U.S. gasoline consumption has started to increase in a sign motorists are starting to use their cars more as the economic lockdown eases.

Fuel consumption data show an economy that had adjusted to an exceptional economic shock by the middle of April and demonstrated some signs of improving in the second half of the month.

The volume of gasoline supplied to the domestic market rose to almost 6.7 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, according to estimates prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

10        Ships storing oil at sea supporting crude tanker market: Euronav CEO
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shipping-tankers-euronav-idUSKBN22J19B
Over 100 tankers are estimated to be storing tens of millions of barrels of crude oil at sea, bolstering prospects for players in the sector, the chief executive of leading tanker group Euronav said on Thursday.

The world continues to struggle with an oil glut due to a drop in demand caused by the coronavirus even after top oil countries have cut production.

Hugo De Stoop, CEO of Belgian group Euronav, said floating storage was “more likely to increase than to decrease”.

11        Enbridge converts idled Mainline export system pipeline for crude storage
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/enbridge-converts-idled-mainline-export-system-pipeline-for-crude-storage-252910/

Analysts say an Enbridge Inc. plan to use an idled leg of its Mainline pipeline system to store surplus Western Canadian oil will help offset lower volumes on the system as US refineries buy less oil to match lower demand.

Enbridge has applied to the Canada Energy Regulator for permission to use a portion of its Line 3 pipeline in Saskatchewan and Manitoba to store about 900,000 barrels of oil starting June 1.

12        Undercutting rivals helps Saudis grow share in key oil markets
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/5/6/undercutting-rivals-helps-saudis-grow-share-in-key-oil-markets
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter, appears to be winning the fight for sales as it slashes prices for its crude. Producers globally are struggling to retain customers as the coronavirus destroys demand for fuel. After flooding the market in April, producers are now scaling back shipments as part of the deal by OPEC+ suppliers to soak up the glut in oil.

13        Why Russia Finally Accepted Deeper Oil Output Cuts
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Russia-Finally-Accepted-Deeper-Oil-Output-Cuts.html

When Russia refused two months ago to join the deeper OPEC oil cuts, it was because Moscow found them unnecessary. Two months later, Russia agreed to cut quite a bit more than it was asked to at the ill-fated March meeting.  It is now doing its best to achieve its promised cuts. Why? Because it has the motivation that it lacked two months ago.

14        Americas: The week ahead in petrochemicals
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/050420-americas-the-week-ahead-in-petrochemicals

AROMATICS: Aromatics prices were expected to continue moving in conjunction with energy markers this week amid contracting supply associated with lower refinery utilization rates.

Toluene demand was expected to remain largely confined to commercial-grade material this week as blend values remain soft. Demand from the chemical segment was expected to be limited amid poor STDP margins. Mixed xylenes are likely to remain firm as limited availability offset weak demand from the paraxylene segment. Paraxylene was expected to remain soft amid poor economics from crystallization units.

15        What Does A Stalling Auto Sector Mean For Polymer Markets?
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/what-does-a-stalling-auto-sector-mean-for-polymer-markets/
Sales have seen even steeper falls. This is not surprising – people can’t start or complete the process of buying a car when showrooms were closed, and the threat of recession will further influence consumer behaviour. In the first month of lockdown, car sales declined by between 70-90% in countries such as China, Italy and France.