Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 57

Friday, March 27, 2020

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 57

1          Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Only Saudi’s Can Prevent Another Steep Plunge
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-only-saudis-can-prevent-another-steep-plunge-641130

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading mixed on Friday as traders responded to international government pledges to inject a massive amount of funds and other measures into the global economy in an effort to limit the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, despite fears the outbreak will destroy demand for oil.

2          Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-gains-capped-as-covid-19-weighs-on-supply-demand-641108

Natural gas futures are drifting sideways-to-lower early Friday and within a few cents of unchanged as traders wait for direction amid concerns over the rapidly spreading coronavirus and the possibility of a nationwide shutdown. The lack of price movement is surprising, given forecasts calling for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks.

3          Weekly Resin Report: Periods of Calm Alternate with Feverish Activity, as Resin Markets Reckon with COVID-19
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-periods-calm-alternate-feverish-activity-resin-markets-reckon-covid-19/72913889262684

Nervous trading spread through the resin markets last week, as periods of calm alternated with bursts of activity. While some sellers fear that low upstream energy and feedstock costs will translate to sharply lower resin prices ahead, other market participants clawed for material, almost as if it were toilet paper at the supermarket, finding comfort in added resin inventory for their factory floors, reported the PlasticsExchange in its Market Update.

4          Coronavirus affects Americas petrochemicals markets
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/032520-coronavirus-affects-americas-petrochemicals-markets

While chemical manufacturing is among sectors deemed critical to combat the spread of the coronavirus, markets continue to face serious challenges as end-users step back and cancel or postpone orders, unable to gauge demand in the coming weeks and months amid increasing stay-at-home orders throughout the Americas.

5          Europe chemicals prices, stocks mixed as US stimulus effect starts to peter out
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/03/25/10486684/europe-chemicals-prices-stocks-mixed-as-us-stimulus-effect-starts-to-peter-out

The unprecedented US $2,000bn fiscal stimulus’ effect on investors began to peter out on Wednesday and European chemicals prices, commodities and stocks had a mixed day.

6          COVID-19 demand update: Oil seen down 4.9%, jet fuel down 20%, road fuel down 5.6% in 2020
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/covid-19-demand-update-oil-seen-down-4point9-jet-fuel-down-20-road-fuel-down-5point6-in-2020/

Rystad Energy is creating a weekly comprehensive report calculating the effect of the novel coronavirus in our lives and updating estimates for global fuel markets.

As a result of recent developments, with travel restrictions, quarantine obligations and new government policies being announced daily around the world, we are making substantial frequent updates to most of our estimates.

7          COVID-19 and oil price war could derail two-thirds of the world’s oil & gas project sanctioning in 2020
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/covid-19-and-oil-price-war-could-derail-two-thirds-of-the-worlds-oil-and-gas-project-sanctioning-in-2020/

The effect of the COVID-19 virus on global demand for oil and gas, along with an ongoing price war that has sent oil prices tumbling at an unprecedented rate, are poised to wreak havoc on new project development plans for this year. According to an impact analysis from Rystad Energy, exploration and production (E&P) companies are likely to reduce project sanctioning by up to $131 billion, or about 68% year-on-year, as they batten down the hatches to weather the storm.

8          Coronavirus and oil price war
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/03/27/10462108/topic-page-coronavirus-and-oil-price-war

It is the scale of the demand shock that is unprecedented. Demand for crude products has crashed – What is the impact likely to be on the supply of refinery propylene and C4s, and of aromatics from the cat cracker? And what of the supply of oil-based cracker feedstocks?

9          Is This The Beginning Of The End For Texas Oil?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-This-The-Beginning-Of-The-End-For-Texas-Oil.html
Widespread misery was evident in the Dallas Fed’s latest survey, which included responses from 161 energy firms and took place from March 11-19. The quarterly survey offers a window into not just the economic health of the industry, but also a look into the psyche of many oil executives in Texas. The numbers were stunning.

10        Oil at historic lows beginning to force shut-in of wells
http://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/27/oil-at-historic-lows-beginning-to-force-shut-in-of-wells
Only the old hands at the Coffeyville oil refinery could remember anything like the prices posted this month. The small Kansas plant in the heart of rural America was offering just $1.75 a barrel for Wyoming sweet crude.

11        Permian production already a victim of oil price war
https://www.bicmagazine.com/industry/commodities/globaldata-permian-production-already-a-victim-of-oil-price-/

“Of all the unconventional plays, the Permian Basin reduction in forecast production growth will be the largest in absolute terms and exemplifies quite well the collateral effect sought by the oil price war initiated by Russia and Saudi Arabia a few weeks ago.

12        European ethylene oversupply intensifies amid lockdowns, price at 11-year low
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/032720-european-ethylene-oversupply-intensifies-amid-lockdowns-price-at-11-year-low

European ethylene spot prices have fallen to their lowest in 11 years as oversupply deepens from the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on downstream operations, shutting down polymer demand. Ethylene was assessed at Eur513/mt FD NWE Thursday, down Eur12/mt on the day and the lowest since January 22, 2009 when it was at Eur505/mt FD NWE.

“Even with low prices Europe needs to reduce stocks, or shut down their production, which could be a disaster,” one source said.

13        Canadian Crude Costs More to Ship than Buy
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/canadian_crude_costs_more_to_ship_than_buy-27-mar-2020-161541-article/

Canadian heavy crude has become so cheap that the cost of shipping it to refineries exceeds the value of the oil itself, a situation that may result in even more oil-sands producers shutting operations.

Western Canadian Select crude in Alberta dropped $2.84 to a record low of $6.45 a barrel on Thursday, according to Bloomberg data going back to 2008, almost as cheap as a Starbucks venti-sized pumpkin spice latte.

14        IEA Boss Warns Demand Will Plunge By 20 Million Barrels Per Day
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Boss-Warns-Demand-Will-Plunge-By-20-Million-Barrels-Per-Day.html

Global oil demand could fall by about 20 million barrels per day, EIA’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol said in a Thursday press briefing, according to Bloomberg.

As 3 billion people in the world remain confined to their homes except to leave to get necessities, activity around the globe is falling—and oil demand along with it. Exacerbating the issue, Birol said, was the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

15        Global oil refiners to deepen output cuts as coronavirus destroys demand
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-oil-refineries-idUSKBN21D19K
il refiners from Texas to Thailand are bracing for deeper output cuts, bruised by an unprecedented demand shock as more countries lock down and restrict travel to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

16        Saudi struggles to find buyers for extra crude as demand dives
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-idUSKBN21D20F
Saudi Arabia is struggling to find customers for its extra oil as demand plummets due to the coronavirus and freight rates surge, industry sources said, undermining the kingdom’s bid to seize market share from rivals by expanding production.

17        Falling Latam fuel demand leaves U.S. refiners without favored export customers
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-latam-usa-idUSKBN21E0FP
Demand for refined products in Latin America is quickly drying up as the coronavirus pandemic worsens, leaving U.S. refiners without their primary export destination as the virus spreads.

18        Russia calls for new enlarged OPEC deal to tackle oil demand collapse
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-rdif-exclusive-idUSKBN21E13T
A new OPEC+ deal to balance oil markets might be possible if other countries join in, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund said, adding that countries should also cooperate to cushion the economic fallout from coronavirus.

19        Petrochemical plants work to assure continuity amid logistic, workforce challenges
https://www.bicmagazine.com/departments/operations/pu-petrochemical-plants-work-to-assure-continuity-amid-logis/

Petrochemical plants have set up emergency response teams and readied special Covid-19 staffing plans while implementing remote working where possible, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) association, as reported by Petrochemical Update.

20        Energy Department withdraws tender to fill Strategic Petroleum Reserve
http://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/26/energy-department-withdraws-tender-to-fill-strategic-petroleum-reserve

The Trump administration halted plans to start buying oil to top up the nation’s emergency stockpile after failing to win funding from Congress, throwing a wrench in its most tangible efforts to help struggling drillers cope with the price rout.

21        Canada’s Woodfibre LNG pushes back construction start
https://www.lngworldnews.com/canadas-woodfibre-lng-pushes-back-construction-start/
Woodfibre LNG, owned by Pacific Oil & Gas, planned to start construction on a 2.1 million metric tonnes per annum LNG terminal and associated facilities this summer.

However, the project has been postponed to 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and as a preferred U.S. construction contractor for the marine part of the project has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

22        LNG Canada temporarily reduces workforce by 50%
https://www.lngindustry.com/liquefaction/26032020/lng-canada-temporarily-reduces-workforce-by-50/
LNG Canada has announced that, due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, it has had to temporarily reduce its workforce by 50%.

In the statement, Peter Zebedee, CEO of LNG Canada, said: “I’ve spent most of my life working in the energy industry. I’ve seen my share of ups and downs. That’s the nature of our business. What we’re experiencing now is without precedent. Impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic are rippling across our industry, our province and our country. They’re being felt everywhere in the world. They impact all of us.

23        Over 1 Million OFS Job Cuts Likely in 2020
https://www.rigzone.com/news/over_1_million_ofs_job_cuts_likely_in_2020-26-mar-2020-161522-article/
More than one million jobs in the oilfield service industry (OFS) are likely to be cut in 2020 due to low project volumes brought about by the virus pandemic and the ongoing oil price war.

That’s according to a new Rystad Energy impact analysis, which reveals that shale services will bear the biggest brunt of the job cuts.

24        Can The U.S. Convince Saudi Arabia To End The Oil War?
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Can-The-US-Convince-Saudi-Arabia-To-End-The-Oil-War.html

US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo is applying verbal pressure to Saudi Arabia, encouraging the Middle Eastern country who started the oil price war to “rise to the occasion” and reassure the oil markets, the State Department has said, according to the Arab News.

25        Canadian oil companies ask government for cash, credit to survive
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada-oil-idUSKBN21C3HD
Canadian oil and gas companies are urging Ottawa to free up credit and cash to help them survive the twin shocks of COVID-19 spread and a crude price war, pitching ideas ranging from tax deferrals to backstopping bank loans.

26        Oil majors slash 2020 spending 20% after prices slump
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-majors-capex-graphic-idUSKBN21D1Y6
The world’s biggest oil and gas companies are slashing spending this year following a collapse in oil prices driven by a slump in demand because of coronavirus and a price war between the top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia.

27        Oil price may fall to $10 a barrel as world runs out of storage space
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/25/oil-price-may-fall-to-10-a-barrel-as-world-runs-out-of-storage-space

The world may soon run out of space to store its extra oil as Saudi Arabia prepares to increase its fossil fuel production even as global demand for energy continues to fall due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Oil storage levels across the world’s storage facilities have climbed to about three-quarters full on average since the January shutdown of major refineries in China’s industrial heartlands to stem the outbreak of the coronavirus.

28        Barclays Slashes Oil Price Forecast On Demand Shock
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Barclays-Slashes-Oil-Price-Forecast-On-Demand-Shock.html
Barclays slashed its oil price estimates for this year for the second time in two weeks, expecting WTI Crude to average $28 a barrel in 2020 due to the demand shock from the coronavirus and the supply shock from the Saudi-Russian oil price war.

Recycling, Renewables and Sustainable Business 28

Friday, March 27, 2020

Recycling, Renewables and Sustainable Business 28

1          Scientists find bug that feasts on toxic plastic
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/27/scientists-find-bug-that-feasts-on-toxic-plastic
A bacterium that feeds on toxic plastic has been discovered by scientists. The bug not only breaks the plastic down but uses it as food to power the process.

The bacterium, which was found at a waste site where plastic had been dumped, is the first that is known to attack polyurethane. Millions of tonnes of the plastic is produced every year to use in items such as sports shoes, nappies, kitchen sponges and as foam insulation, but it is mostly sent to landfill because it it too tough to recycle.

2          How much PV is needed in an hybrid solar-diesel mini-grid?
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/26/how-much-pv-is-needed-in-an-hybrid-solar-diesel-mini-grid/
The use of solar radiation databases and a solar simulator when designing solar-plus-diesel mini-grids could improve operation, costs and output, according to a study by researchers from Brazil’s Federal University of Santa Catarina.

The researchers said, whereas solar irradiation data is relatively important for urban, grid-connected PV projects, it is absolutely crucial for solar-diesel mini-grids in remote areas.

3          Green hydrogen can power green Alpine tourism
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/26/green-hydrogen-can-power-green-alpine-tourism/
Winter tourism, arguably more than any other form, is particularly prone to the effects of climate change, as sub-zero temperatures and plenty of snow are prerequisites.

In Austria, one of Europe’s most popular winter sport destinations, a consortium led by Canadian-owned BRP-Rotax has presented a green hydrogen solution for snowmobiles.

4          Coronavirus Lockdowns Cause Dramatic Drop In Air Pollution
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2020/03/27/coronavirus-lockdowns-cause-dramatic-drop-in-air-pollution/

The dramatic slowdown in economic activity across Europe as a result of Coronavirus lockdowns can already be seen from space.

Almost all of the European Union has gone into lockdown, with the exception of Sweden, Hungary and the Netherlands. Today the European Space Agencypublished satellite images showing what a difference this has made to nitrogen dioxide concentrations over cities such as Paris, Madrid and Rome.

5          Oil Price Crash Opens A Window Of Opportunity For Renewables
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Oil-Price-Crash-Opens-A-Window-Of-Opportunity-For-Renewables.html

Just a month ago, companies and investors had a financial incentive to continue investing in new oil and gas projects despite the societal and environmentalist backlash against fossil fuels.    Not anymore.

In just a couple of weeks, the oil price crash made investments in renewable energy starting to look more attractive. Or at least as attractive as investment in oil and gas.

6          What is the Safest Energy for the Future?
https://www.altenergymag.com/article/2020/03/what-is-the-safest-energy-for-the-future/32904
Emotional not rational reasons are why people have rejected nuclear energy. Looking at the basic facts, nuclear energy is the cleanest, safest, and cheapest approach to energy production. The risks of nuclear energy are greatly exaggerated by activists, politicians, and the media, which promote agendas rather than fact.

7          Twelve U.S. states generate more than 30% of their electricity from nuclear power
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43256
Nuclear power plants play an important role in U.S. electricity generation, consistently providing about 20% of total annual generation. Of the 30 U.S. states with operating commercial nuclear power plants, 12 states generated more than 30% of their electricity from nuclear power.

8          Sweden Reaches 26% Electric Vehicle Market Share!
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/25/sweden-reaches-26-electric-vehicle-market-share/
Yes, the Swedish electric vehicle market is an odd one in which approximately 80% of electric vehicle sales are plug-in hybrids, leaving only 20% of the market for fully electric vehicles. Most EV markets are around 50–50 or favor fully electric vehicles (BEVs). Nonetheless, an overall EV market share of 26% is a stunning achievement in early 2020.

9          Detroit’s near future based on SUVs, not EVs, production plans show
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-emissions-suvs-insight-idUSKBN21D1KW
General Motors Co (GM.N) and Ford Motor Co (F.N) have widely touted their commitment to emission-free electric cars, but their production plans show a growing reliance on ever-larger gas-powered vehicles.

10        First Solar’s PV Module Factories All Still Running Amid Coronavirus Shutdowns
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/first-solars-factories-all-still-running-amid-coronavirus-shutdowns

First Solar, the largest PV module maker in the Western hemisphere since opening a second factory in Ohio last year, said on Thursday that all of its global factories remain in production despite the coronavirus outbreak.

11        Nacero selects Topsoe’s TIGAS™ technology for USD 3 billion natural gas-to-gasoline plant
https://blog.topsoe.com/nacero-selects-topsoes-tigas-technology-for-usd-3-billion-natural-gas-to-gasoline-plant

Nacero has signed agreements with Haldor Topsoe for basic engineering and license for a planned natural-gas-to-gasoline facility in Casa Grande, Arizona, with a capacity of 35,000 barrels-per-day of finished gasoline. Pending final investment decision, Topsoe will also supply proprietary hardware, catalysts, and services.

12        Bio and synthetic LNG provide viable path to decarbonisation
https://www.lngindustry.com/small-scale-lng/26032020/bio-and-synthetic-lng-provide-viable-path-to-decarbonisation/

The CE Delft study looks at both the availability and costs of liquefied bio methane (LBM) and liquefied synthetic methane (LSM). The study came to the conclusion that both fuels could become available in sufficient quantities to make a contribution towards future decarbonisation for the shipping industry, and that the costs need not be significantly higher than those of other low and zero carbon fuels.

13        Joined at the hip: A hybrid future for onshore renewables
https://www.energy-storage.news/blogs/joined-at-the-hip-a-hybrid-future-for-onshore-renewables
Such is the maturation of the renewables sector as we enter the 2020s that simply co-locating generation with storage is almost old hat. Now renewables developers the world over are pushing the envelope even further, adopting their onshore wind cousins to bring forward hybrid projects that profess to unlock the full value of a grid connection and unleash the potential of onshore renewables as a whole.

14        Coronavirus Forces Rethink on Plastic Bag Bans
https://www.plasticstoday.com/medical/coronavirus-forces-rethink-on-plastic-bag-bans/150312389262698

Several years ago — 2012 to be exact — just after San Francisco banned plastic T-shirt bags, there was a sudden uptick in the number of E. coli cases caused by the adoption of reusable cotton or polyester non-woven bags as alternatives. Obviously, people weren’t aware that these reusable bags were being used to carry raw meat one time and produce the next without being washed. As a result, people were getting sick from the E. coli bacteria. I blogged about that at the time and explained why single-use plastic retail bags are really not single use, and why they are much safer for consumers and more eco-friendly than alternative bags that require washing in hot, soapy water after each use.

15        World’s wind power capacity up by fifth after record year
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/25/worlds-wind-power-capacity-up-by-fifth-after-record-year

The world’s wind power capacity grew by almost a fifth in 2019 after a year of record growth for offshore windfarms and a boom in onshore projects in the US and China.

The Global Wind Energy Council found that wind power capacity grew by 60.4 gigawatts, or 19%, compared with 2018, in one of the strongest years on record for the global wind power industry.

Business Intelligence and Analytics 57

Friday, March 27, 2020

Business Intelligence and Analytics 57

1          Supply chain outlook: Why the situation varies by industry
http://news.mit.edu/2020/sheffi-global-supply-chain-covid-19-0325
By now, the media images are familiar: empty shelves in large markets where shoppers have loaded up on food, toiletries, and medicine. Many people, if they can afford it, have bought large quantities of goods to avoid repeated trips into public, in line with their state and local government guidelines. But others may be simply spooked by the unknown: Will we run out of the things we need?

2          Supply chain outlook: The timing of the slowdown
http://news.mit.edu/2020/simchi-levi-supply-chain-covid-19-0325
The rapid spread of the Covid-19 virus is already having a huge impact on the global economy, which is rippling around the world via the long supply chains of major industries.

MIT supply chain expert David Simchi-Levi has been watching those ripples closely in 2020, as they have moved from China outward to the U.S. and Europe. His tracking of supply chain problems provides insight into what is happening in the global economy — and what could happen in a variety of scenarios.

3          Strategy under uncertainty | McKinsey
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty

At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that executives, by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, can predict the future of any business accurately enough to choose a clear strategic direction for it. The process often involves underestimating uncertainty in order to lay out a vision of future events sufficiently precise to be captured in a discounted-cash-flow (DCF) analysis. When the future is truly uncertain, this approach is at best marginally helpful and at worst downright dangerous: underestimating uncertainty can lead to strategies that neither defend a company against the threats nor take advantage of the opportunities that higher levels of uncertainty provide. Another danger lies at the other extreme: if managers can’t find a strategy that works under traditional analysis, they may abandon the analytical rigor of their planning process altogether and base their decisions on gut instinct.

4          Pandemic Panic: Can Governments Protect Jobs and Markets?
https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/layoffs-loom-governments-respond-pandemic-panic/
The COVID-19 virus has infected populations around the world and slammed the global economy. While it is unclear where the coronavirus pandemic is headed, experts believe that it will lead to a worldwide recession.

Mauro Guillen, professor of international management at Wharton and the creator ofan online course on the coronavirus crisis that the school plans to launch on March 25, believes that the challenge on the economic front is whether policy makers can find a way to prevent firms from laying off workers and if they can help calm panicky markets.

5          Taking Care of Our People
https://www.business2community.com/strategy/taking-care-of-our-people-02296299
Like our customers, each of us and our people are facing things we may have never experienced before. We are being asked to work in new ways–some of which we are ill equipped to support. We have no clear answers and are figuring them out on the fly. And things we decide this week, may have to be changed in the coming weeks.

6          How To Painlessly Analyze Your Time Series
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/03/painlessly-analyze-time-series.html
We’re surrounded by time series data. From finance to IoT to marketing, many organizations produce thousands of these metrics and mine them to uncover business-critical insights. A Site Reliability Engineer might monitor hundreds of thousands of time series streams from a server farm, in the hopes of detecting anomalous events and preventing catastrophic failure. Alternatively, a brick and mortar retailer might care about identifying patterns of customer foot traffic and leveraging them to guide inventory decisions.

7          Technology Driven Insurance Data Analytics
https://datafloq.com/read/technology-driven-insurance-data-analytics/8081
The nature of the Insurance industry being data-centric, insurers abide by the policy of keeping data as a treasure for their respective growth. This data can only be turned into a gold mine of Insurance Data Analytics by in-depth analysis of other engagement areas of the customer and the insurer depending upon the kind of insurance one prefers.

8          Making sense of ensemble learning techniques
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/03/making-sense-ensemble-learning-techniques.html
For many companies/data scientists that specialize or work with machine learning (ML), ensemble learning methods have become the weapons of choice. As ensemble learning methods combine multiple base models, together they have a greater ability to produce a much more accurate ML model. For example, at Bigabid we’ve been ensemble learning to successfully solve a variety of problems ranging from optimizing LTV (Customer Lifetime Value) to fraud detection.

9          How bad will Canada’s COVID-19 recession be?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/covid-19-recession-economy-analysis-1.5510596
The black swan has landed.

The novel coronavirus pandemic is well underway worldwide, but it wasn’t until this month that Canadians started coming to grips with the economic pain it can bring, in addition to its heavy human toll.

10        Coronavirus measures could cause global food shortage, UN warns
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-measures-could-cause-global-food-shortage-un-warns

Protectionist measures by national governments during the coronavirus crisis could provoke food shortages around the world, the UN’s food body has warned.

Harvests have been good and the outlook for staple crops is promising, but a shortage of field workers brought on by the virus crisis and a move towards protectionism – tariffs and export bans – mean problems could quickly appear in the coming weeks, Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, told the Guardian.

11        MIT-affiliated companies take on Covid-19
http://news.mit.edu/2020/mit-companies-covid-19-0326
As the world grapples with the public health crises and myriad disruptions brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic, many efforts to address its impact are underway.

Several of those initiatives are being led by companies that were founded by MIT alumni, professors, students, and researchers.

12        AI program could check blood for signs of lung cancer
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/25/ai-program-could-check-blood-for-signs-of-lung-cancer

Scientists have developed an artificial intelligence program that can screen people for lung cancer by analysing their blood for DNA mutations that drive the disease.

The software is experimental and needs to be verified in a clinical trial, but doctors are hopeful that if it proves its worth at scale, it will boost lung cancer screening rates by making the procedure as simple as a routine blood test.

13        Want to Build an AI Model for Your Business? Read this
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/03/build-ai-model-business-read-this.html
Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning models have demonstrated significant power to grow and improve businesses. We have found that the best approach to AI production is what venture capitalists do when they evaluate and invest in startups.

14        Preparing the Supply Chain for the Next Disruption
https://medium.com/bcggamma/preparing-the-supply-chain-for-the-next-disruption-48bbbc63b79f
COVID-19 has put supply chains for all industries under enormous stress. From the sourcing of raw materials to the distribution of finished products, supply chains are at the frontline of this crisis. But this is not likely to be the last pandemic or global crisis. How supply chains are currently coping — or not — provides some valuable lessons for facing similarly widespread disruptions in the future.

15        Managing the Flow of Ideas in a Pandemic
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/managing-the-flow-of-ideas-in-a-pandemic/
Most organizations are hierarchical or centralized, so their senior leaders are at the center. All roads lead to them. The leaders are typically older and have more health conditions. During a pandemic, like the one we now face with COVID-19, standard organizational structures are a management disaster in the making — because the senior people are likely to be the hardest hit.

16        Coronavirus pandemic has delivered the fastest, deepest economic shock in history
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-pandemic-has-delivered-the-fastest-deepest-economic-shock-in-history

The shock to the global economy from Covid-19 has been faster and more severe than the 2008 global financial crisisand even the Great Depression. In those two previous episodes, stock markets collapsed by 50% or more, credit markets froze up, massive bankruptcies followed, unemployment rates soared above 10% and GDP contracted at an annualised rate of 10% or more. But all of this took around three years to play out. In the current crisis, similarly dire macroeconomic and financial outcomes have materialised in three weeks.

17        5 Ways to Do Smart & Responsible Marketing During COVID-19
https://www.business2community.com/marketing/5-ways-to-do-smart-responsible-marketing-during-covid-19-02295026

In everything we do as brands, context matters. Beyond the basic actions taken to protect employees and businesses during a crisis, brands can either help or hinder our collective experience. So when a cultural moment shifts as dramatically as it has in the face of COVID-19, it’s important that brands address the issue with tact, empathy, and mindful marketing.

18        Using artificial intelligence to detect COVID-19
https://medium.com/@haidaramohamed32/using-artificial-intelligence-to-detect-covid-19-6fcd9857b93f
Among the tens of thousands of cases detected, several cases of COVID-19 are asymptomatic. These most common symptoms of the virus are fever and a dry cough. Some people may also experience aches, headache, tightness or shortness of breath. These symptoms suggest an acute respiratory infection or radiologically detectable lung abnormalities. We can use Artificial Intelligence algorithms to detect the disease using automatic X-ray analysis to support radiologists.

19        What is the probability that someone you know will die from COVID-19 this year?
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/03/24/what-is-the-probability-that-someone-you-know-will-die-from-covid-19/

I teach a Math Methods class that covers basic probability, mathematical modeling, and data science. For one of my upcoming lectures I plan on applying the very simple tools that we’ve covered so far to COVID-19. As I’m sure you’re aware, there are very dire predictions for the total number of Americans that will die from COVID-19, ranging from 0.5–3M. However, I wanted to connect these impersonal numbers to a very basic question:

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 56

Friday, March 20, 2020

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 56

1          Analyst Cuts 2020 Oil Price Forecast by $19
https://www.rigzone.com/news/analyst_cuts_2020_oil_price_forecast_by_19-19-mar-2020-161441-article/

Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research (FSCRIR) has cut its 2020 Brent oil price forecast by $19 per barrel, a new research note has revealed.

The company now sees Brent averaging $43 per barrel this year, compared to its previous 2020 forecast of $62 per barrel. FSCRIR forecasts that Brent will average $45 per barrel in 2021 and $49 per barrel in 2022. This compares to its previous forecasts of $63 per barrel in 2021 and $62 per barrel in 2022.

2          Crude Oil Price Update – Trader Reaction to $24.52
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/crude-oil-price-update-trader-reaction-to-24-52-24-50-will-set-the-tone-639947

The test of $24.52 to $24.50 is very important to the near-term structure of the market. This is because counter-trend buyers may come in on a test of this area in an effort to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom.

3          Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Biggest Concern for Short-Sellers Should Be Complacency
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-biggest-concern-for-short-sellers-should-be-complacency-639707

Continue to trade the trend, but don’t get complacent. The market is going down because traders anticipate a flood of oil to hit supply on April 1. If the Saudi’s and Russians somehow back away from their threats to increase production then crude oil could snap back $10 to $15 rather quickly.

4          A crude tsunami: Up to 3 million bpd of extra oil can hit the market from April, more coming in May
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/a-crude-tsunami-up-to-3-million-bpd-of-extra-oil-can-hit-the-market-from-april-more-coming-in-may/

The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.

5          200+ OFS Firms in Europe Could Go Bankrupt
https://www.rigzone.com/news/200_ofs_firms_in_europe_could_go_bankrupt-18-mar-2020-161427-article/

More than 200 oil field service (OFS) firms in Europe could go bankrupt as COVID-19 slashes billions of dollars off the market.

That’s according to Rystad Energy, which expects the effect of the pandemic to hit the continent’s OFS market “hard” and cut purchases by about $5 billion year-on-year. Most of the lost purchases, worth around $4.5 billion, are expected to hit Norway and Britain, mainly within the segments of MMO, drilling rigs and well services.

6          Weekly Resin Report: After Slow Start, Week Ends with Large Volumes of PE Changing Hands
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-after-slow-start-week-ends-large-volumes-pe-changing-hands/112336832862636

The spot resin markets were slow most of last week, as many participants retreated to their bunkers, watching the commodity and stock markets erode in epic fashion. There is no doubt that the severe restriction of non-essential travel, in an attempt to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, as well as the effective shutdown of public events will have a tremendous impact on the economy and, ultimately, plastics demand, reports the PlasticsExchange in its Market Update.

7          Naphtha East/West spread hits record high at $42/mt as Europe market reels from coronavirus
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/031820-naphtha-eastwest-spread-hits-record-high-at-42mt-as-europe-market-reels-from-coronavirus

Demand for naphtha in Europe was extremely thin for both petrochemical demand for open-specification naphtha and gasoline blending demand for light virgin naphtha; the key CIF NWE naphtha assessment hit a 17-year low on Monday. Asian demand is a key driver for the open specification European naphtha grades, while the glut of gasoline barrels in both regions has eroded demand for blending grades.

8          No Major Production Cutbacks of Material or Downstream Products Yet: Plastics Technology
https://www.ptonline.com/blog/post/no-major-production-cutbacks-of-material-or-downstream-products-yet

In view of the fast-paced life changes/disruptions taking place across the country due to the coronavirus pandemic, particularly starting this week, I reached out to a handful of industry sources, including a custom injection molder; a leading molder of HDPE and LDPE caps and closures for the dairy and water bottle market sectors; a major thermoformer; a compounder of engineering thermoplastics; and resin-pricing consultants.

These initial responses to whether production—ranging from materials to downstream plastics products—is being scaled back appear to show the opposite. This is particularly the case in the major packaging market sector ranging from film wrap to food packaging to healthcare packaging. Due to the fluidity of the situation we are all in, these sources preferred to stay anonymous.

9          WoodMac: Industry slashes spending as price rout deepens: Can companies cope?
https://www.bicmagazine.com/industry/commodities/woodmac-industry-slashes-spending-as-price-rout-deepens-can-/

Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for maneuver is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?

This crisis is very different from those that the sector has seen before. Debt and equity markets are all but closed for the US Independents, in contrast to the previous oil price collapse. Upstream M&A liquidity is also limited. Survival will rely on swift and deep cuts to investment.

10        Oil Could Crash To $10 As World Runs Out Of Storage
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Could-Crash-To-10-As-World-Runs-Out-Of-Storage.html

The growing supply glut in oil markets could end up filling all storage tanks worldwide, potentially causing prices to drop even further

Global oil storage could overflow in the coming weeks as the coronavirus pandemic has dealt a severe blow to demand while Saudi Arabia has promised to supply 12.3 million bpd—not just in April but also over the next few months.

11        Lack of Demand Results in Single Digit Gas Draw
https://www.enverus.com/blog/lack-of-demand-results-in-single-digit-gas-draw/
Natural gas storage inventories decreased 9 Bcf for the week ending March 13, according to the EIA’s weekly report. This was larger than the expected draw of 4 Bcf.

Working gas storage inventories now sit at 2.034 Tcf, which is 878 Bcf above inventories from the same time last year and 281 Bcf above the five-year average.

12        The Inevitable Outcome Of The Oil Price War
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Inevitable-Outcome-Of-The-Oil-Price-War.html
One might reasonably posit that when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) signalled that Saudi Arabia was once again going to produce oil to the maximum to crash oil prices in a full-scale oil price war, Russian President Vladimir Putin probably fell off the horse he was riding bare-chested somewhere in Siberia because he was laughing so much. There is a phrase in Russian intelligence circles for clueless people that are ruthlessly used without their knowledge in covert operations, which is ‘a useful idiot’, and it is hard to think of anyone more ‘useful’ in this context to the Russians than whoever came up with Saudi’s latest ‘plan’. Whichever way the oil price war pans out, Russia wins.

13        Putin won’t cave in to Saudi oil-price blackmail
https://www.energyvoice.com/coronavirus/229912/putin-wont-bow-to-saudi-oil-price-blackmail-articleisfreeput/

Russian President Vladimir Putin will refuse to submit to what the Kremlin sees as oil blackmail from Saudi Arabia, signalling the price war that’s roiling global energy markets will continue.

The unprecedented clash between the two giant exporters — and former OPEC+ allies — threatens to push the price of a barrel below $20, but the Kremlin won’t be the first to blink and seek a truce, said people familiar with the government’s position.

14        Saudi ‘Shock And Awe’ Is Crushing Shale Drillers
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Shock-And-Awe-Is-Crushing-Shale-Drillers.html
WTI dropped into the low $20s on Wednesday, and the near-term outlook is grim.

Oil lobbyists have pushed Congress for help, and a group of Republican Senators pleaded in a letter to the Saudi government to back off the price war, but there is little evidence to suggest that a dozen U.S. Senators will be able to convince Saudi Arabia to change course.

15        Canada Is First Price-War Casualty
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/canada_is_first_pricewar_casualty-19-mar-2020-161442-article/
Hit by unfettered supply from the world’s top two crude exporters and reduced demand as a result of the coronavirus, the benchmark blend of crude produced from Canada’s oil sands plunged to a record low of $7.47 a barrel on Wednesday. The fallout: Virtually every barrel of oil now produced there will come at a loss at a time when the energy industry generates 10% of Canada’s gross domestic product and a fifth of its exports.

16        Canadian oil plummets to lowest level on record, TSX halted as market rout continues
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stock-markets-loonie-wednesday-1.5501335
The price of a barrel of Canadian oilsands crude oil fell to its lowest level ever on Wednesday and the Toronto Stock Exchange was once again halted to stop heavy-selling activity.

Western Canadian Select (WCS) was changing hands at $7.63 per barrel, down $4.60 from Tuesday’s level. The U.S. benchmark known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also fell to below $23 a barrel, a level it has not hit since 2003.

17        At $30 oil, offshore drillers may be out of options
https://www.energyvoice.com/coronavirus/229957/at-30-oil-offshore-drillers-may-be-out-of-options/
RigLogix has contacted a number of rig owners and operators and the consensus seems to be that it’s going to get worse before it gets better, especially if current conditions persist. Announcements of operators cutting 2020 capital expenditure plans are coming fast and furious with a 20-30% reduction typical.

18        Oil Up as Texas Supports Trump-Led Output Proposal
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_up_as_texas_supports_trumpled_output_proposal-20-mar-2020-161456-article/

Oil kept rising after a record surge as President Donald Trump waded into the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, while a Texas regulator proposed his state coordinate output cuts with the feuding producers.

19        OPEC supply curbs, U.S. measures could support oil prices near term: Goldman
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-research-goldman-idUSKBN2170LO
Supply restraint by core-OPEC producers could push second-quarter Brent oil prices up to $30 a barrel, while U.S. measures to support the market could underpin prices in the near term, Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

Citing Wall Street Journal reports that the United States was considering intervening in the ongoing Saudi-Russian price war and Texas regulators may curb oil output, the U.S. investment bank said such action would reduce global and U.S. domestic supplies.

20        Oil gains as governments pile on the economic stimulus
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN21709H
Oil prices rose on Friday as the world’s richest nations poured unprecedented aid into the global economy to stop a coronavirus-driven recession and U.S. President Donald Trump hinted he may intervene in the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

21        U.S. power industry may ask key employees to live at work if coronavirus worsens
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-utilities-idUSKBN2171AC
The U.S. electric industry may ask essential staff to live on site at power plants and control centers to keep operations running if the coronavirus outbreak worsens, and has been stockpiling beds, blankets, and food for them, according to industry trade groups and electric cooperatives.

22        China’s polymer inventories edge higher
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2088494-chinas-polymer-inventories-edge-higher
China’s polymer inventories have increased slightly as consumption continues to slow, despite attempts to boost manufacturing activity as the coronavirus outbreak fades.

China did not report any new domestic coronavirus cases today for the first time since the outbreak started around 2-3 months ago.

23        Europe chem prices hint gains, Portugal also enters quarantine
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/03/19/10484480/europe-chem-prices-hint-gains-as-portugal-also-enters-quarantine

rude oil futures and some European petrochemicals prices rose on Thursday after additional stimulus measures in the region were announced and Portugal became the latest country to approve a two-week quarantine to contain the spread of coronavirus.

24        Factbox: Global oil, gas producers cut spending after crude price crash
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-cuts-factbox-idUSKBN2161DX
Oil and gas companies aim to cut spending as the impact of the new coronavirus on demand and a push by Saudi Arabia and Russia to ramp up output have hammered oil markets.

Below are plans announced by international energy companies (in alphabetical order):

25        April Could Be Worst Month Ever For Oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/April-Could-Be-Worst-Month-Ever-For-Oil.html
The millions of barrels of additional supply promised by Saudi Arabia will take time to reach their destination. On the demand side, major economies have only begun to slow down, and the gaping hole where the economy once stood is expected to widen. A growing number of analysts say that the global economy is already in a recession.

Recycling, Renewables and Sustainable Business 27

Friday, March 20, 2020

Recycling, Renewables and Sustainable Business 27

1          The US added 13.3 GW of solar in 2019, beating new wind and gas capacity

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/18/the-us-added-13-3-gw-of-solar-in-2019-beating-wind-and-gas-in-new-capacity/

Analyst Wood Mackenzie and industry body the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) have published their 2019 U.S. Solar Market Insight report. However, the publication does not take into account the impact of the COVID-19outbreak on the U.S. solar industry supply chains, component costs and project timelines.

Here are five takeaways from the pre-COVID-19 U.S. solar industry.

2          Is Green Hydrogen The Future Of Energy Storage?
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Fuel-Cells/Is-Green-Hydrogen-The-Future-Of-Energy-Storage.html
The United States and China are in a race to the top of the energy storage game. Last year, the energy storage industry exploded in China, with Wood Mackenzie projecting that the country was poised to completely take over the sector, as its “cumulative energy storage capacity is projected to skyrocket from 489 megawatts (MW) or 843 megawatt-hours (MWh) in 2017 to 12.5 gigawatts (GW) or 32.1GWh in 2024,” a significant increase ”in the installed base of 25 times.”

As  Oilprice reported  in July, “thanks to the country’s major push for storage deployments in the last year, deploying 580MW (1.14GWh) to reach a cumulative market size of 1.07GW (1.98GWh) in 2018, China has already secured its position as the second biggest energy storage market in the Asia Pacific region in terms of deployment, with South Korea coming in first place.”

3          Solar, Wind and Storage Industries Seek Relief in Coronavirus Stimulus Package
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/clean-energy-groups-seek-tax-credit-extensions-direct-pay-provisions-in-coronavirus-stimulus-package

The novel coronavirus pandemic and its resulting economic disruptions could delay U.S. wind and solar projects from being started or completed by the end of 2020, threatening their access to federal tax credits that are critical to their financing.

Clean-energy industry groups and their allies in Congress want to stop that from happening, and they see the massive coronavirus stimulus package now being crafted in Congress as a way to do it.

4          Next Five Years Could be Pivotal for Bioplastics
https://www.plasticstoday.com/packaging/next-five-years-could-be-pivotal-bioplastics/134643113162650
Plastic pollution is rapidly becoming one of the world’s biggest environmental issues as increasing production of single use plastic products far outweighs the world’s ability to deal with them. This is particularly visible in African and Asian nations, where trash collection infrastructure is often lacking, although Europe and North America also struggle to collect discarded plastics and recycling rates remain troublingly low.

5          COVID-19 could decelerate energy transition by giving coal an unforeseen boost
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/covid-19-could-decelerate-energy-transition-by-giving-coal-an-unforeseen-boost/

The COVID-19 pandemic has shaken energy markets to the core this year, creating incredible volatility for fuel prices. The one energy source that hasn’t blinked though is coal, a fuel that may come out stronger through the current crisis, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.

6          Air pollution drops as countries shut down amid spread of COVID-19
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/covid-19-air-pollution-1.5501810
It’s a surreal sight: Webcams from across Italy show normally packed tourist destinations, streets and beaches empty, scenes that seem more aligned with a movie than real life.

In the battle against COVID-19, countries around the world are restricting gatherings, encouraging people to work from home and closing public venues. Italy is under lockdown.

7          Mexico’s deadly toll of environment and land defenders catalogued in report
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/20/mexico-environment-land-defenders-murdered-rights-indigenous

At least 83 Mexican land and environment defenders were murdered between 2012 and 2019, while hundreds more were threatened, beaten and criminalized, according to a new report.

Latin America is the most dangerous continent in the world to defend environmental, land and human rights, with Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala ranking worst.

8          Fate of US brewery in drought-hit Mexico goes to Amlo poll
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/mexico-fate-us-brewery-put-to-vote-latest-amlo-plebiscite

The fate of a giant US brewery under construction in Mexico’s parched borderlands will be put to a vote this weekend in the latest attempt at direct democracy by the country’s populist president.

The brewery in Mexicali has provoked controversy in a region where the climate crisis has already caused droughts, and where farmers and residents have taken exception to a US company, Constellation Brands, extracting water to produce beer for export.

9          Fusion researchers endorse push for pilot power plant in US
http://news.mit.edu/2020/fusion-researchers-endorse-push-pilot-power-plant-us-0318
The growing sense of urgency around development of fusion technology for energy production in the United States got another boost this week with the release of a community consensus report by a diverse group of researchers from academia, government labs, and industry. High among its recommendations is development of a pilot fusion power plant, an ambitious goal that would be an important step toward an American fusion energy industry.

10        Coronavirus Could Derail The Electric Vehicle Revolution
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Coronavirus-Could-Derail-The-Electric-Vehicle-Revolution.html
Many analysts focus on how the pandemic will be wiping out 10 million barrels per day of global oil demand, forcing oil prices to four-year-lows (and possibly lower), potentially bankrupting many U.S. shale producers, and bringing fiscal pain to oil producing economies, including those of the former allies Saudi Arabia and Russia who are now locked in a bitter dispute over market share.

But the pandemic and the looming recession will spare no industry or energy-related sector, inflicting pain to clean energy industries from solar power to electric vehicles (EVs) sales, too.

11        Greenland’s melting ice raised global sea level by 2.2mm in two months
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/19/greenland-ice-melt-sea-level-rise-climate-crisis
Last year’s summer was so warm that it helped trigger the loss of 600bn tons of ice from Greenland – enough to raise global sea levels by 2.2mm in just two months, new research has found.

The analysis of satellite data has revealed the astounding loss of ice in just a few months of abnormally high temperatures around the northern pole. Last year was the hottest on record for the Arctic, with the annual minimum extent of sea ice in the region its second-lowest on record.

12        Battery Researchers Look to Artificial Intelligence to Slash Recharging Times
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/battery-industry-applies-artificial-intelligence-to-recharging

The battery sector is turning to artificial intelligence for clues on how to improve recharging rates without increasing the degradation of lithium-ion batteries.

Last month, a team from Stanford University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Toyota Research Institute published findings from battery testing aimed at cutting electric-vehicle charging times down to 10 minutes. The research, published in Nature, revealed how artificial intelligence could speed up the testing process required for novel charging techniques.

13        Four challenges to solid-state battery scale-up
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/18/four-challenges-to-solid-state-battery-scale-up/
With demand for energy storage set to go nowhere but up in the years ahead, it is vital to address issues common to battery technologies, with fire safety, energy density, durability and recyclability chief among them.

Solid-state batteries, which feature solid electrolytes rather than the liquids and gels used in lithium-ion alternatives, offer promising potential for energy storage, and research institutes and industrial players are working to bring the technology into large scale commercial production.

14        Mining giants BHP, Anglo and Fortescue join forces for “green hydrogen”
https://reneweconomy.com.au/mining-giants-bhp-anglo-and-fortescue-join-forces-for-green-hydrogen-48061/

Mining industry majors Anglo American, BHP, Fortescue and Hatch have joined forces to “de-risk and accelerate” the production of renewable hydrogen, as the resources sector works to decarbonise operations.

In a joint announcement on Wednesday, the companies said the new consortium’s main goal was to help to eliminate the obstacles to the adoption of green hydrogen technologies and encourage innovative applications.

15        New sensor could help prevent food waste
http://news.mit.edu/2020/ethylene-sensor-food-waste-0318
As flowers bloom and fruits ripen, they emit a colorless, sweet-smelling gas called ethylene. MIT chemists have now created a tiny sensor that can detect this gas in concentrations as low as 15 parts per billion, which they believe could be useful in preventing food spoilage.

16        IEA Calls For Emergency Clean Energy Aid Package
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/IEA-Calls-For-Emergency-Clean-Energy-Aid-Package.html

The coronavirus pandemic will almost certainly trigger a global economic recession, and the recession may have already started with major economies grinding to a standstill.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said on Saturday that any major economic stimulus package should have a heavy focus on clean energy. He noted that while everyone is rightly focused on the pandemic, the threat of climate change continues to grow.

Business Intelligence and Analytics 56

Friday, March 20, 2020

Business Intelligence and Analytics 56

1          Is the COVID-19 Outbreak a Black Swan or the New Normal?
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/is-the-covid-19-outbreak-a-black-swan-or-the-new-normal/
In the time between writing this and reading it, whatever I say about COVID-19 will likely be out of date. That’s the nature of something moving at exponential speed through society. The scale of what’s happening is hard to grasp, and it’s logical to wonder whether COVID-19 is the so-called black swan that society and business have feared. The answer is, of course it is. But it also could be the kind of challenge we now will face all the time — a new normal.

2          Responding to coronavirus: Integrated nerve center
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/responding-to-coronavirus-the-minimum-viable-nerve-center

Together with many leading companies, we have developed a better approach—a flexible structure for guiding the work—called the integrated nerve center. In an unfamiliar crisis, such as the COVID-19 outbreak, the nerve center concentrates crucial leadership skills and organizational capabilities and gives leaders the best chance of getting ahead of events rather than reacting to them.

3          Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/is-it-time-to-rethink-globalized-supply-chains/
The COVID-19 contagion has had a major impact on Chinese manufacturers, and because of the central role many Chinese companies play in the supply chains of other companies, the impact is being felt around the world. The disruption is particularly acute in the electronics and auto industries, but it is also affecting pharmaceuticals, metals, and a wide range of consumer and industrial products, including surgical gowns and masks.

4          Coronavirus’s impact on supply chain
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/supply-chain-recovery-in-coronavirus-times-plan-for-now-and-the-future

Even as the immediate toll on human health from the spread of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the COVID-19 disease, mounts, the economic effects of the crisis—and the livelihoods at stake—are coming into sharp focus. Businesses must respond on multiple fronts at once: at the same time that they work to protect their workers’ safety, they must also safeguard their operational viability, now increasingly under strain from a historic supply-chain shock.

5          The data-driven pandemic: Information sharing with COVID-19 is ‘unprecedented’
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-date-information-sharing-1.5500709
In the early days of Canada’s COVID-19 outbreak, Elisa Baniassad was able to trace how new cases were spreading and plan her outings accordingly.

“When I plotted how the virus was being transmitted, I saw that it was from close contact. People weren’t getting it out on the street, they were getting it at home from their family members,” said the computer science instructor at the University of British Columbia.

Baniassad is one of a handful of people making use of the reams of data being collected and published daily around the world to help governments and citizens plan and be informed of the latest situation.

6          Coronavirus: 3D printers save hospital with valves
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51911070
A 3D-printer company in Italy has designed and printed 100 life-saving respirator valves in 24 hours for a hospital that had run out of them.

The valve connects patients in intensive care to breathing machines.

The hospital, in Brescia, had 250 coronavirus patients in intensive care and the valves are designed to be used for a maximum of eight hours at a time.

7          Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/is-it-time-to-rethink-globalized-supply-chains/
The COVID-19 contagion has had a major impact on Chinese manufacturers, and because of the central role many Chinese companies play in the supply chains of other companies, the impact is being felt around the world. The disruption is particularly acute in the electronics and auto industries, but it is also affecting pharmaceuticals, metals, and a wide range of consumer and industrial products, including surgical gowns and masks.

8          Wall Street weekahead: Coronavirus uncertainty muddies views on buying opportunities for plunging stocks
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSKBN2171HV
U.S. stock valuations are tumbling in the wake of the coronavirus-fueled market rout, but determining when equities are cheap enough to buy is a tricky proposition.

The S&P 500’s .SPX price-to-earnings ratio, based on earnings estimates for the next year, has dropped from over 19 in late February to 14.2 as of Wednesday, according to Refinitiv data.

The decline in forward P/E marks a drop from the highest level since about mid-2002 to a level below the index’s historic average.

9          An Open Letter on Customer Service During a Pandemic
https://www.business2community.com/customer-experience/an-open-letter-on-customer-service-during-a-pandemic-02293771

It’s an understatement to say we are living in interesting times. Now declared a pandemic, the novel coronavirus COVID-19 is impacting everyone’s lives. A visit to any grocery or drug store illustrates the panic buying taking place as worried consumers stock-up. Every check of the inbox brings new COVID-19 emails from companies assuring their customers of the precautions they are taking. “Social distancing,” with its many considerations, is a new concept we should all be practicing. And in an attempt to combat the spread of the virus, countries have restricted travel and imposed quarantines.

10        The 4 Best Jupyter Notebook Environments for Deep Learning
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/03/4-best-jupyter-notebook-environments-deep-learning.html
Notebooks are becoming the de-facto standard for prototyping and analysis for Data Scientists. Many cloud providers offer machine learning and deep learning services in the form of Jupyter notebooks. Other players have now begun to offer cloud hosted Jupyter environments, with similar storage, compute and pricing structures. One of the main differences can be multi-language support and version control options that allow Data Scientists to share their work in one place.

11        Eight Emerging Lessons: From Coronavirus to Climate Action
https://medium.com/presencing-institute-blog/eight-emerging-lessons-from-coronavirus-to-climate-action-683c39c10e8b

As 100 million people in Europe are in lockdown, the US seems to be completely unprepared for the tsunami that is about to hit. “We’re about to experience the worst public health disaster since polio,” says Dr Martin Makary, professor at Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health. “Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus. No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed. I think we have between 50,000 and half a million cases right now walking around in the United States.”

12        Airline industry crisis deepens as coronavirus pain spreads
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-airlines-idUSKBN21542J
The United Nation’s International Civil Aviation Organization called on governments to ensure cargo operations are not disrupted to maintain the availability of critical medicine and equipment such as ventilators and masks that will help fight the virus.

“The spread of the coronavirus has placed the entire global economy and our company as well in an unprecedented state of emergency,” Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr said in a statement. “At present, no one can foresee the consequences.”

13        Two generic drugs being tested in U.S. in race to find coronavirus treatments
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-treatments-idUSKBN2161QQ
U.S. researchers, following the lead of scientists in other countries, have launched studies to see whether widely-available, low-cost generic drugs can be used to help treat the illness caused by the new coronavirus.

14        Time Series Classification Synthetic vs Real Financial Time Series
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/03/time-series-classification-synthetic-real-financial-time-series.html
I was given a “Data Science” challenge as part of an interview in which I had to distinguish between real financial time series and synthetic time series. I document the results here, the data was anonymous and I have no idea which assets were which or from what time series the assets came from.

To conclude I obtained an in-sample-test-accuracy of 67% and an out-of-sample-test-accuracy of 65% (based on what the interviewers told me)

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 55

Friday, March 13, 2020

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 55

1          Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-thin-markets-underpinned-by-higher-demand-for-risky-assets-638497

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging higher on Friday shortly after the regular session opening. The move is being fueled by stronger demand for risky assets after U.S. stock index futures soared to limit up in the pre-market session.

2          Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-strengthens-over-1-851-weakens-under-1-801-638317

Natural gas futures are trading lower on Thursday but rebounding after touching an important short-term technical support level shortly before the regular session opening and the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report at 14:30 GMT. Traders are blaming yesterday’s weakness and today’s follow-through to the downside on economic uncertainty after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic.

3          Weekly Resin Report: Caution Spreads through Spot Market
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-caution-spreads-through-spot-market/178120888462590

While there was a good flow of buyer inquiries, processors were a bit shy to confirm orders and those that did conclude, were generally for truckloads rather than railcars. Some additional deals were struck with resellers for urgent shipment because of railcar delays from Canada; otherwise, traders were looking to sell surplus inventory rather than add to current stocks.

4          $20 oil not far off as OPEC+ is capable of unleashing 2.5 million extra bpd on the market
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/20-oil-not-far-off-as-opecplus-is-capable-of-unleashing-2point5-million-extra-bpd-on-the-market/

Oil prices could fall into the low $20s for the global market to rebalance, as Rystad Energy expects an increase in global supplies in the next three months. OPEC+ countries are locked and loaded to add between 1.5 million and 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), which we estimate is their realistic short-term capability.

5          EIA Cuts 2020 Oil Price Forecast
https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_cuts_2020_oil_price_forecast-13-feb-2020-161084-article/
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has cut its Brent oil price forecast for 2020, its February short-term energy outlook (STEO) report has revealed.

The EIA’s Brent spot average forecast for 2020 is now $61.25 per barrel. This marks a notable drop from the 2020 Brent spot average forecast posted in its January STEO, which stood at $64.83 per barrel.

6          Oil Price Crash: 3 Things You Need To Know Today
https://www.woodmac.com/news/editorial/oil-price-crash-3-things-you-need-to-know-today/
Wood Mackenzie estimates that in the first quarter oil consumption will be 2.7 million barrels per day lower than in the same period of 2019. The OPEC+ group of countries has compounded the problems facing oil producers by failing to agree a cut in output, with Saudi Arabia and Russia leaving an acrimonious meeting in Vienna vowing to increase production. As a result, Brent crude has plummeted to about $37 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at about $33 a barrel.

7          Asian petrochemical markets see volatility as coronavirus pandemic spreads
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/031220-asian-petrochemical-markets-see-volatility-as-coronavirus-pandemic-spreads

In the Asian petrochemical market, the benchmark paraxylene CFR Taiwan/China marker shot up $36.50/mt on Tuesday to $618.83/mt after falling $100.50/mt on Monday to an 11-year low, but failed to rise further on Wednesday, ending the day unchanged from Tuesday.

8          OPEC+ deal collapse, virus double whammy to keep oil in $30s range – Reuters poll
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-poll-idUSKBN2101DQ
Analysts in the snap poll slashed their forecasts of Brent crude prices LCOc1 to $42 a barrel on average this year versus the $60.63 consensus in the February monthly poll.

The global benchmark is expected to average about $34.87 in the second quarter and $39.05 in Q3, before regaining some ground to $44.08 in the final quarter. The survey of 21 analysts forecast U.S. crude CLc1 will average $30.37 per barrel in Q2 and about $37 for the year.

9          U.S. energy guru Yergin sees no easy way out of oil price collapse
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-yergin-idUSKBN20Z3UW
U.S. energy historian Daniel Yergin said it could be a long time before pressure is eased on sinking oil markets as the coronavirus causes public events and schools to close while global oil producers flood markets with crude. “It’s a problem of an oil price war in the middle of a constricting market when the walls are closing in,” Yergin, who is also vice chairman of IHS Markit, told reporters at the U.S. Department of Energy’s headquarters.

10        Oil market set for record surplus amid virus-led demand slump: Goldman Sachs
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-commodities-research-goldmansachs-idUSKBN2100TC
Goldman Sachs said the oil market could see a record surplus of about 6 million barrels per day by April, considering a bigger- than-expected surge in low-cost output, while a slump in demand was “increasingly broad” triggered by the coronavirus outbreak.

11        The Great U.S. Shale Decline Has Already Begun
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Great-US-Shale-Decline-Has-Already-Begun.html
U.S. shale companies are moving quickly to ax their budgets, hoping to staunch the bleeding as the oil market continues to melt down.

It has only been a few days after the OPEC+ debacle, but with oil trading at around $30 per barrel, and with good odds of falling even lower, the entire energy industry has little option but to make deep cuts to their operations.

12        The Real Oil Demand Shock Is Yet To Come
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Real-Oil-Demand-Shock-Is-Yet-To-Come.html

Oil demand has been revised downward several times since the start of the year by nearly every analyst or banking institution thanks to the devastating impact of the coronavirus. With the number of coronavirus cases in China–the world’s largest oil importer–seemingly leveling off in recent days, some may be taking the view that the worst of the oil demand shocks is now behind us.

13        DSM announces partnership with SABIC and UPM Biofuels to create bio-based Dyneema
https://www.britishplastics.co.uk/News/dsm-announces-partnership-with-sabic-and-upm-biofuels-to-cre/
Royal DSM has announced a partnership that will help to reduce the environmental footprint of Dyneema, the world’s strongest fibre.

The collaboration will see Dyneema transition to bio-based feedstock leveraging SABIC’s ground-breaking TRUCIRCLE solutions for certified renewable products.

14        OMV to sell $2.3 billion of assets to fund purchase of plastics maker
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-borealis-m-a-omv-idUSKBN20Z15W
Austrian oil and gas group OMV plans to sell $2.3 billion of assets by the end of next year to help fund a $4.7 billion deal to make it the majority owner of plastics maker Borealis and one of the world’s leading polymer producers.

15        Mexico to invite oil and gas investment, no auctions for now
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-economy-herrera-exclusive-idUSKBN20Z0E0
Mexico will soon invite private firms to invest in oil and gas projects to help a flagging economy hit by the fallout of coronavirus, Finance Minister Arturo Herrera said on Wednesday, but cautioned energy auctions were not on the cards for now.

16        Oil price plunge ramps up pressure on Pemex; hedge programs in focus
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-pemex-debt-idUSKBN20W369
A crash in crude prices has intensified pressure on the finances of Mexican state oil firm Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), which is facing the threat of a ratings downgrade after posting one of its worst-ever losses last year.

17        Wood Mackenzie: oil market rout could boost Asia’s gas demand
https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/12032020/wood-mackenzie-oil-market-rout-could-boost-asias-gas-demand/

The consultancy claims that, in the short-term, the biggest downside risk from the oil price crash to gas supply is associated with gas production, largely from unconventionals in the US. Nonetheless, it is not an immediate effect, as Wood Mackenzie claims prices are still generally above variable wellhead operating costs.

18        Latin American petchems could take a hit on currency depreciation across the region
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/031220-latam-petchem-could-take-a-hit-on-currency-depreciation-across-the-region

Latin American countries are expected to face challenges in the petrochemical trade flow following currency exchange depreciation in the region due to uncertainties generated by the coronavirus pandemic and a global stock market collapse, which could decrease volumes or create payment issues, sources told S&P Global Platts on Thursday.

19        Russia to OPEC: deeper oil cuts won’t work
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-exclusive-idUSKBN20Y2TJ
Last week, Saudi Arabia failed to secure Moscow’s support for deeper output cuts at a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+.

Following the disagreement, Saudi Arabia has threatened to flood the market with oil. Oil prices LCOc1 dropped by as much as a third on Monday and fell again on Wednesday to around $36 a barrel.

20        Cenovus spending cut expected to set trend as sector adjusts to oil prices
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/operations/cenovus-spending-cut-expected-to-set-trend-as-sector-adjusts-to-oil-prices-248694/

Forecasts for a stand-pat year for drilling in 2020 in the Canadian oilpatch are up in the air following an oil price crash March 9 linked to a dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil production cuts.

In its 2020 forecast in November, the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors predicted 4,905 wells would be drilled in Canada this year, a slight increase over 2019 but less than half the 11,226 wells drilled in 2014.

21        Big Oil Prepares To Suffer In 2020
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Big-Oil-Prepares-To-Suffer-In-2020.html
When Rystad Energy analysts last November told Bloomberg that Big Oil investors were in for a windfall of dividends and share buybacks as the companies shifted into renewables, they couldn’t have known that just four moths later oil prices would dive to lows unseen for years and that the prospects of an improvement will be bleak.

22        The future of packaging
https://www.packagingnews.co.uk/features/comment/ali-kaylan-future-packaging-11-03-2020
“How could packaging evolve in the coming decades?” – that’s a common question being asked by brands and producers as the food and beverage industry undergoes dramatic changes. What will packaging look like in the future?

Recycling, Renewables and Sustainable Business 26

Friday, March 13, 2020

Recycling, Renewables and Sustainable Business 26

1          Wood Mackenzie: Energy storage has ‘found a foothold nationwide’ in the US
https://www.energy-storage.news/news/wood-mackenzie-energy-storage-has-found-a-foothold-nationwide-in-the-us

The latest quarterly US Energy Storage Monitor, produced by the national Energy Storage Association and analysis firm Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, has predicted annual deployments will reach 7.3GW by 2025.

A more than 14-fold increase is forecast, from 523MW recorded in 2019, with the “sharp scale-ups” both regionally and nationally to be driven primarily by a combination of “utility procurements and the accelerating residential market,” the report claims.

2          Call to cancel new coal facilities globally as renewables ‘out-compete’ on cost
https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/227888/call-to-cancel-new-coal-facilities-globally-as-renewables-out-compete-on-cost/

Coal power developers risk wasting hundreds of billions of pounds as new renewables are now cheaper than new coal plants around the world, a report warns.

In all major markets from the US to Europe, China, India and Australia, it already costs less to generate power from installing new wind or solar farms than new coal plants, the latest study from think tank Carbon Tracker found.

3          Uber’s Green Competitor Is Riding A $30 Trillion Mega-Trend
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Ubers-Green-Competitor-Is-Riding-A-30-Trillion-Mega-Trend.html

If it’s not green, it’s not millennial–and that’s a big problem for a company like Uber, or Lyft. Millennials love ride-sharing, but they don’t appreciate the CO2 footprint that comes with it.

The immediate problem for Uber is this: The next-generation of ride-sharing is already here–born out of massive millennial demand. It’s green through and through, and it’s set to command some serious market share.

4          Miners Begin Cleaning Up Their Act With Renewables
https://about.bnef.com/blog/miners-begin-cleaning-up-with-renewables/
The mining industry faces an interesting paradox. It is the lynchpin of the transition to a low-carbon economy, providing the materials that go into new grids and electric vehicles, yet miners’ extraction processes gorge on large amounts of power. Miners account for 6% of the world’s energy demand, and meet most of it with fossil fuels.

5          Photovoltaic Markets and Technology
https://www.pv-magazine.com/
Many solar factories in China are starting to resume production, suggesting that concerns about supplies of PV components could soon begin to ease. Nevertheless, the temporary standstill will have an impact on the global solar market, as the implementation of some projects will probably be postponed until next year.

6          Green tariffs drive big increases in corporate renewable procurement
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/green-tariffs-drive-big-increases-in-corporate-renewable-procurement/574060/

The trend of utilities offering green tariffs so large customers can purchase renewable energy has remade the map of states with the highest relative amounts of corporate clean energy procurement, boosting some states with regulated electricity markets above others with deregulated markets, a new report released by the Retail Industry Leaders Association on Thursday said.

7          EIA projects air-conditioning energy use to grow faster than any other use in buildings – Today in Energy
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43155
In the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) Reference case, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that delivered energy for air conditioning will increase more than any other end use in residential and commercial buildings (also known as the buildings sector) through 2050, while energy consumption for space heating will decline.

8          Canada is asking for more time to enact a promised ban on shipping plastic waste
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/plastic-waste-basel-convention-canada-1.5495920
The government of Canada has formally notified the United Nations that Canada’s laws will not be in compliance with a treaty meant to stop rich countries from shipping their hazardous waste to poor countries.

The specific amendments that Canada has asked for extra time to codify are intended to address a problem that is supposed to be a signature issue of the Trudeau government: plastic contamination.

9          Powering the future with revolutionary lithium extraction technique
https://www.monash.edu/news/articles/powering-the-future-with-revolutionary-lithium-extraction-technique

An international research team, led by Monash University, has developed a new filtration technique that can slash lithium extraction times.

A world-first study, led by Monash University, has pioneered a new filtration technique that could slash lithium extraction times.

The research team has developed a synthetic MOF-based membrane that can filter lithium ions in an ultra-fast and highly selective manner.

Preliminary studies have shown this technology has a lithium recovery rate of approximately 90 per cent.

10        Lithium-sulfur solid-state batteries promise fire safety at high performance
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/12/lithium-sulfur-solid-state-batterys-promise/
A ‘cupcake’ approach may have brought the commercialization of lithium-sulfur solid-state batteries one step closer.

Researchers from Singapore’s A*Star NanoBio Lab (NBL) have designed a hybrid, quasi-solid electrolyte featuring a liquid-infused porous membrane which they say offers higher conductivity and stability properties than alternatives. The results have been published in Nano Energy.

11        How Virus Outbreak May Change Solar Manufacturing: Q&A
https://about.bnef.com/blog/how-virus-outbreak-may-change-solar-manufacturing-qa/
First there were the U.S. tariffs on solar components from China, now the coronavirus has struck in the heart of its manufacturing base, and still the solar industry is cranking out more and more panels at lower and lower costs.

“The demand for solar has never been stronger,” said Andy Klump, chief executive officer of Clean Energy Associates, in an interview with BloombergNEF in Houston in late February. The Shanghai-based firm inspects components and the factories that make them for the buyers, typically developers of solar farms.

12        For richer or poorer: coronavirus, cheap oil test climate vows
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-climate-analysis-idUSKBN20Z0PD
The challenge looks formidable. When the 2008 financial crisis tipped the world into recession, carbon emissions fell. But as economies grew again, governments proved unable to halt an emissions rebound.

The issue now is that at a crucial moment for international negotiations, the latest global economic blow could put paid to costly ideas for slowing climate change from political leaders and the private sector alike.

13        Polar ice caps melting six times faster than in 1990s
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/11/polar-ice-caps-melting-six-times-faster-than-in-1990s

The ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica is tracking the worst-case climate warming scenario set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), scientists say. Without rapid cuts to carbon emissions the analysis indicates there could be a rise in sea levels that would leave 400 million people exposed to coastal flooding each year by the end of the century.

14        Storage Hybrid Plants Becoming More Attractive in Maturing Wind and Solar Markets
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/storage-co-location-getting-more-attractive-for-maturing-wind-and-solar-markets

The scope for adding batteries to wind projects is expanding around the world, building on the considerable momentum that already exists for hybrid solar-plus-storage plants.

In the U.S., solar-plus-storage is an increasingly mainstream proposition for large-scale renewables developers. In Europe, the pairing of batteries with utility-scale solar is still less common, though a peek at the midterm development pipeline suggests that’s about to change.

15        Site of Old Gas-Fired Power Plant in California Will Host World’s Largest Li-Ion Energy Storage Reserve
https://www.energytrend.com/news/20200311-16581.html
To reduce reliance on gas-fired power plants and eliminate unsightly chimneys associated with most generation facilities, the US state of California has approved the proposal to develop four battery energy storage projects in Monterey County. These projects are scheduled for completion by the end of 2020 and designated to replace three older gas-fired power plants. Tesla is one of the main participant in this endeavor and again has an opportunity to build another highly efficient large-scale energy storage station.

16        Canadian Solar coy on coronavirus impact on China manufacturing operations
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/52191
‘Solar Module Super League’ (SMSL) member Canadian Solar has provided some limited insight into the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) to its substantial PV manufacturing operations in China.

The SMSL said that the “impact to the Company’s delivery schedule is now mainly limited to the capacity loss in last week of January and first 10 days of February of 2020. There have been limited cases in which the Company has had to change shipping schedules and/or product types, but all have been settled with customers.

17        Daimler Trucks measures customer experience with battery-electric fleet
https://www.transportdive.com/news/daimler-trucks-battery-electric-fleet/573742/
Daimler Trucks North America LLC (DTNA) launched its Freightliner Customer Experience (CX) Fleet for its electric truck program. The fleet of all-electric trucks includes six heavy-duty Freightliner eCascadias and two medium-duty eM2-106 trucks.

18        Solar for construction
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/11/solar-for-construction/
Enerwhere Sustainable Energy DMCC, a Dubai-based solar project developer, has built a 540 kW off-grid rooftop PV installation on top of a parking lot at a skyscraper construction site in Dubai.

The plant is hybridized with a diesel-powered microgrid and provides power for the entire construction site, including the site office and heavy applications such as tower cranes, man hoists, and pumps from a centralized power generation hub.

19        ExxonMobil proposes framework for industry-wide methane regulations
https://www.bicmagazine.com/departments/operations/exxonmobil-proposes-framework-for-industry-wide-methane-regu_1/

ExxonMobil today released a model framework for industry-wide methane regulations and urged stakeholders, policymakers and governments to develop comprehensive, enhanced rules to reduce emissions in all phases of production.

“ExxonMobil has been applying the principles of this framework to our oil and natural gas operations for several years, resulting in improvements that demonstrate what’s practicable and achievable,” said Darren Woods, chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

20        Charging electric-vehicle fleets is a huge business opportunity
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/charging-electric-vehicle-fleets-how-to-seize-the-emerging-opportunity

As more people and organizations acquire electric vehicles (EVs), companies will have chances to lift their revenues not only by selling more electric power and charging infrastructure but also by providing services that support the charging of EVs. EV fleets represent a particularly promising segment of the potential market for charging services, which can help fleet operators reduce their costs by procuring and managing energy in efficient ways. In the United States, the market for fleet-charging services could amount to $15 billion per year by 2030.

21        Tesla Passes 1 Million EV Milestone & Model 3 Becomes All Time Best Seller
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/10/tesla-passes-1-million-ev-milestone-and-model-3-becomes-all-time-best-seller/

Elon Musk revealed on Monday that Tesla has just produced its millionth vehicle, a red Tesla Model Y. Tesla is the first of any automaker to hit the million-EV milestone. We can also safely estimate that the Tesla Model 3 has now overtaken the Nissan LEAF in sales, to become the all time best selling EV globally. In just 2½ years of volume production, the Model 3 achieved sales that took the LEAF almost 10 years.

Business Intelligence and Analytics 55

Friday, March 13, 2020

Business Intelligence and Analytics 55

1          Don’t Hide Bad News in Times of Crisis
https://hbr.org/2020/03/dont-hide-bad-news-in-times-of-crisis
If sunshine is the best disinfectant, the opposite is also true: Dark, hidden corners are great places to grow something truly horrible. Few problems improve with age, and public health crises are no exception. Transparency is “job one” for leaders in a crisis. Be clear what you know, what you don’t know, and what you’re doing to learn more. You can’t manage a secret, as the old saying goes.

2          How Leaders Delude Themselves About Disruption
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-leaders-delude-themselves-about-disruption/
What will it take to innovate and compete over the next decade? These articles examine some of the biggest challenges companies will face, such as building the future workforce and identifying tomorrow’s disrupters. Included are contributions to MIT SMR’s special issue on disruption, published in memory of Clayton Christensen.

3          The 11 Sources of Disruption Every Company Must Monitor
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-11-sources-of-disruption-every-company-must-monitor/
The 11 Macro Sources of Disruption

This simple tool shows the 11 sources of macro change that are typically outside a leader’s control. Because technology is so intertwined with everyday life, it is shown as intersecting with all the other sources.

4          How To Manage The Risks Within Enterprise Analytics
https://datafloq.com/read/how-to-manage-the-risks-within-enterprise-analytics/7949
Today, organisations are becoming increasingly data-driven. Business users now have greater than ever access to data & analytics technologies so that they can obtain current insights on their KPIs. The opportunity for businesses is to simultaneously provide support for self-service analytics, whilst ensuring securityand integrity. Self-service analytics will encourage the promotion of a data-driven culture resulting in transparent processes & business decisions backed by numbers. However, not all business users are data literate and enterprises are still grappling with the challenges that make it difficult for enterprises to be truly data-driven.

5          12 Articles for Managing With Resilience in a Time of Uncertainty
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/12-articles-for-managing-with-resilience-in-a-time-of-uncertainty/
The editors at MIT Sloan Management Review have been brainstorming about how we can provide readers with more information to help them manage and work effectively despite uncertainty. While there is a range of factors in this crisis that remain outside of the control of companies and leaders, there are several areas where focused efforts can have a real impact. Two new articles — one on leadership practices to embrace and another on the lessons China’s response efforts offer to companies and managers — offer important insights.

6          5 Factors That Will Determine The Economic Impact Of Coronavirus
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/5-factors-that-will-determine-the-economic-impact-of-coronavirus/

What’s good for public health is bad for economics

Strategies to contain the spread of coronavirus have a negative economic impact. Stock markets and commodity prices are reeling on concerns of a recession. Global GDP growth will fall below the 2.3% we had expected for 2020. The question is, how bad could it get?

7          Coronavirus’ business impact: Evolving perspective
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/covid-19-implications-for-business
Less than ten weeks have passed since China reported the existence of a new virus to the World Health Organization. This virus, now known as SARS-CoV-2, causing COVID-19 disease, spread quickly in the city of Wuhan and throughout China. The country has experienced a deep humanitarian challenge, with more than 80,000 cases and more than 3,000 deaths.

8          How to Build a Sales CRM Process
https://www.business2community.com/brandviews/zendesk/how-to-build-a-sales-crm-process-02292538
Legendary engineer and management consultant W. Edwards Deming once said, “A bad system will beat a good person every time.”

This truism can easily be applied to the world of sales. Even the best rep can’t succeed if their sales process is disorganized and chaotic. But how do you upgrade your sales process to be more straightforward and efficient? The answer is a sales CRM process. Customer relationship management software can help streamline the five classic sales process steps:

9          10 marketing skills you should be investing in for your business
https://www.smartinsights.com/digital-marketing-strategy/10-marketing-skills-for-business/
To give your business the best chance of success, you need to invest in marketing. For a simple reason: marketing provides visibility for your products and converts customers.

Having said that, investing in marketing goes beyond just buying marketing tools and hoping for the best. Those tools will only be effective when your marketers have the skills to utilize them effectively.

10        20+ Machine Learning Datasets & Project Ideas
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/03/20-machine-learning-datasets-project-ideas.html
To Build a perfect model, you need a large amount of data. But finding the right dataset for your machine learning and data science project is sometimes quite a challenging task. There are many organizations, researchers, and individuals who’ve shared their work, and we will use their datasets to build our project.

So in this article, we are going to discuss 20+ Machine learning and Data Science dataset and project ideas that you can use for practicing and upgrading your skills.

11        The Most Useful Machine Learning Tools of 2020
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/03/most-useful-machine-learning-tools-2020.html
Building good Machine Learning applications is like making Michelin-style dishes. Having a well organized and managed kitchen is critical, but there are too many options to choose from. In this article, I will highlight the tools I found useful in delivering professional projects, share a few thoughts and alternatives, and do a quick real-time survey (you can see what the community thinks after you participate).

12        Everything you need to know about ERP implementation
https://datafloq.com/read/everything-need-know-erp-implementation/7954
In a world going increasingly digital, the enterprises have to grapple with a lot of challenges. These include a dynamically-changing market, rapid delivery of products and services, proliferation of devices and other digital elements, presence of multiple branches, need to grant remote access to resources for the employees and various stakeholders, and others. To address these challenges and run the organization seamlessly and profitably, enterprises are adopting ERP software.

13        Data Analytics Projects Only Benefit Marketers When Properly Applied
https://www.targetmarketingmag.com/post/data-analytics-projects-benefit-marketers-when-applied/
I recently read a report that only about 20% of all analytics projects work turns out to be beneficial to businesses. Such waste. Nonetheless, is that solely the fault of data scientists? After all, even effective medicine renders useless if the patient refuses to take it.

14        Half of Gen Z, millennials ‘don’t know how they’d get through life’ without video
https://www.mobilemarketer.com/news/half-of-gen-z-millennials-dont-know-how-theyd-get-through-life-without/573885/

The top reason people watch YouTube is to relax and unwind, but viewers also seek out programming that teaches them something new or lets them dig deeper into their personal interests, Google found in a survey that was shared with Mobile Marketer. Viewers place higher value on the information they get from videos than on its production value or celebrity involvement.

15        What Is Great Content? The 6 Standards of Content Greatness
https://www.searchenginejournal.com/what-makes-content-great/346990/
Video marketing continues to be a huge thing in 2020, for obvious reasons.

There’s nothing quite as eye-catching as a high-quality video, and marketers can reap many benefits by repurposing video content across multiple platforms.

In fact, it’s expected that 82% of all consumer internet traffic will be videos by 2021.

16        How the UN is Exploiting Blockchain Technology?
https://datafloq.com/read/how-un-exploiting-blockchain-technology/7952
The UN is now looking to incorporate blockchain in its humanitarian efforts that have always had a global impact in terms of upkeeping of world peace. United Nations, in particular, is seeking to implement the disruptive technology across a range of its peacekeeping works that comprise fighting climate change, distributing funds among Syrian refugees deploying blockchain-based iris scans, among many other similar deeds.

17        The Role of AI in the Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine
https://www.informationweek.com/big-data/ai-machine-learning/the-role-of-ai-in-the-race-for-a-coronavirus-vaccine/a/d-id/1337278

There are hundreds of startup companies who have deployed AI tools over the last several years to speed drug discovery. Yet, only one drug developed using AI has reached clinical trial with humans, and this only recently, to treat patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder. In this instance, AI was able to complete in 12 months what often takes years — reaching human trials, not public use. Once a company has a promising compound, the clinical trial process starts. There are four phases in the US, and new medications have to complete each phase successfully to win FDA approval. Conceivably the phases could be fast-tracked for a promising treatment or vaccine.

18        Python Pandas For Data Discovery in 7 Simple Steps
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2020/03/python-pandas-data-discovery.html
When I first started using Python to analyze data, the first line of code that I wrote was ‘import pandas as pd’. I was very confused about what pandas was and struggled a lot with the code. Many questions were in my mind: Why does everyone apply ‘import pandas as pd’ in their first line on Python? What does pandas do that is so valuable?

19        Even mask-wearers can be ID’d, China facial recognition firm says
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-facial-recognition-idUSKBN20W0WL
A Chinese company says it has developed the country’s first facial recognition technology that can identify people when they are wearing a mask, as most are these days because of the coronavirus, and help in the fight against the disease.

20        The 2020 Data Science Dictionary—Key Terms You Need to Know
https://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/top-data-science-skills-for-2020-1
As I discussed early last year, the data science field is a virtual hot-bed of terminology, a confluence of terms from computer science, statistics, mathematics, and software engineering. In addition, the language of data science evolves very quickly. As a journalist and also a data scientist, I probably see the newest terms before many others in the ecosystem.

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 54

Friday, March 6, 2020

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 54

1          Russian resistance hammers oil prices, pushing OPEC to the brink
http://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/6/russian-resistance-hammers-oil-prices-pushing-opec-to-the-brink

Ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries told Russia on Thursday that if it doesn’t join them in cutting oil output by another 1.5 million barrels a day to offset the impact of the coronavirus, then the cartel could abandon its reductions altogether. Hours later, the group raised pressure on Moscow again, emerging from an informal meeting at the Saudi delegation’s hotel with a proposal to extend the curbs for even longer than initially suggested.

2          OPEC Presents Russia With Production Cut Ultimatum
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Presents-Russia-With-Production-Cut-Ultimatum.html
On Thursday, OPEC met in Vienna and announced a proposed 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of additional cuts. The idea calls for OPEC itself cutting by 1 mb/d, and the non-OPEC coalition reducing output by 0.5 mb/d. However, as of Thursday, Moscow had not signed onto the agreement.

3          Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-look-for-opec-compromise-that-falls-short-of-demand-losses-637262

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark crude oil futures are down nearly 2% on Friday as concerns over global oil demand and economic growth caused by the coronavirus epidemic were heightened by worries over non-OPEC crude producers’ delay in agreeing to further production cuts designed to trim oil supply and stabilize prices.

At 08:48 GMT, April WTI crude oil is trading $45.14, down $0.76 or -1.66% and May Brent crude oil is at $49.12, down $0.87 or -1.76%.

4          Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-strengthens-over-1-745-weakens-under-1-720-637246

The April natural gas short-term range is $1.642 to $1.847. Its retracement zone at $1.745 to $1.720 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the short-term direction of the natural gas market.

Natural gas futures are under pressure early Friday after posting an outside move, lower close the previous session. Despite the steep two day plunge, the market is still up after posting three days of solid gains earlier in the week.

5          Weekly Resin Report: Commodity-grade Resins Largely Resilient amid Market Meltdown
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-commodity-grade-resins-largely-resilient-amid-market-meltdown/172841593062533

The resin markets were pushed and pulled by opposing supply/demand forces last week, which set a very nervous tone. Market participants took a big step back as another wave of coronavirus news shocked the stock market with fears it might trigger an economic slowdown. That sent many commodity markets, upstream energies included, into a downward tailspin, reports the Chicago-based PlasticsExchange in its Market Update. But what about commodity grade resins? Interestingly enough, North American plastics prices have held up amazingly well and saw mixed results last week.

6          Will We Really See Negative Oil Demand Growth This Year?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Will-We-Really-See-Negative-Oil-Demand-Growth-This-Year.html

The outlook for the global economy continues to darken, and a growing number of analysts see oil demand contracting in 2020.

Despite the recent rebound in oil prices – largely stemming from the first 50 basis point interest rate cut since the global financial crisis and expected OPEC+ cuts – the coronavirus is showing no signs of slowing down.

7          US February ethylene contracts settle at decrease amid ample supply
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/03/04/10478504/us-february-ethylene-contracts-settle-at-decrease-amid-ample-supply

US February ethylene contracts settled for a majority of participants at a decrease of 1.75 cents/lb ($39/tonne), tracking lower spot as cracker start-ups and expansions in upstream fractionation capacity continue to boost already ample supply.

The settlement puts February ethylene contracts at 24.00 cents/lb, down from 25.75 cents/lb in January.

8          Ohio Valley to house petrochemical complex, company expects FID by mid-2020
https://www.bicmagazine.com/expansions/downstream/ohio-valley-to-house-petrochemical-complex/
PTT Global Chemical, a subsidiary of PTT Group, is allocating $5 billion for its next investment in Ohio.

Chief Executive Kongkrapan Intarajang said the company is on track to make a final decision on the U.S. project by mid-2020. The process is moving as planned, including approval from U.S. authorities, environmental assessments and the choice of a construction company, the CEO said.

9          Mexican firm takes millions of barrels of Venezuelan crude in oil-for-food swap
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-venezuela-oil-idUSKBN20T01B
Venezuela has swapped millions of barrels of crude for supplies of corn and water trucks under an oil-for-food deal struck with a Mexican firm, in an effort to secure imports amid tightening U.S. sanctions, according to the company and export schedules.

10        Exclusive: Mexican private sector pitches $92 billion in energy investment
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-energy-exclusive-idUSKBN20S048
Mexico’s private sector has drawn up a broad package of proposed energy investments for the government worth almost $92 billion, according to a document seen by Reuters on Wednesday, providing a potential lift to the country’s misfiring economy.

11        Oil industry investment in petrochemicals poses risk for independent producers
https://www.britishplastics.co.uk/News/oil-industry-investment-in-petrochemicals-poses-risk-for-ind/
Moody’s Investors Service has said that it expects large oil companies to accelerate investment in new petrochemicals capacity over the next decade, increasing business and event risk for rated petrochemical companies.

12        LyondellBasell and Bora form petrochemical joint venture
https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/06032020/lyondellbasell-and-bora-form-petrochemical-joint-venture/

“China is a large market with growing demand for high quality polyolefin products”, said Bob Patel, CEO of LyondellBasell. “The combination of LyondellBasell’s leading technology and Bora’s operational excellence will allow us to reliably produce and provide these needed products to local customers.”

13        Asia petchem shares slide on fears of prolonged global slowdown
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/03/06/10479291/asia-petchem-shares-slide-on-fears-of-prolonged-global-slowdown

The shares of major Asian petrochemical firms tracked the overnight Wall Street rout on Friday amid worsening fears that disruptions to global trade and business arising from the coronavirus outbreak will lead to a prolonged economic slowdown.

14        Industry responds to the launch of the European Plastics Pact
https://www.britishplastics.co.uk/News/industry-responds-to-the-launch-of-the-european-plastics-pac/
The plastics industry has met the launch of the European Plastics Pact with criticism, with both European Plastics Converters and the German Association for Plastics Packaging (IK) questioning its implementation.

15        EIA’s long-term power plant forecasts trade off the cost and value of new capacity
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43095
A supplemental report to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) describes two simple measures of cost and value that, when used together, largely explain the economic competitiveness of electricity generating technologies and, in turn, the types of power plants most likely to be built in EIA’s long-term model for the U.S. energy sector.

16        Warren Buffett’s company bails on Saguenay LNG project because of ‘Canadian political context’
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/saguenay-lng-project-1.5486517
Warren Buffett’s investment company Berkshire Hathaway has decided not to invest $4 billion in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant by the Saguenay port, according to Radio-Canada.

The marine terminal to ship LNG to overseas markets is slated to be built roughly 230 kilometres northeast of Quebec City, at a cost of $9.5 billion.

17        China petchem downstream plants ramp up output as virus spread slows
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/03/05/10478642/china-petchem-downstream-plants-ramp-up-output-as-virus-spread-slows

For the downstream plants of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) plants in the provinces of Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian provinces, the average operating rate has improved to 50-70%, ICIS senior analyst Amy Yu said.

“We expect the operating rate of plastic processers’ factories will return to 60-75% in more regions in the coming three weeks as more migrant workers have ended their 14-days self-quarantine and return to work,” Yu said.

18        Exxon to cut Permian growth by 10% in response to price slump
http://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/5/exxon-to-cut-permian-growth-by-10-in-response-to-price-slump
The U.S. energy giant will cut Permian production growth by about 10% over the next two years, the company said at its analyst day in New York on Thursday, but will stick to its long-term plan to almost triple output from the basin by 2024.

19        1Q Oil Demand Fall Expected to be Largest Ever
https://www.rigzone.com/news/1q_oil_demand_fall_expected_to_be_largest_ever-05-mar-2020-161292-article/

World oil demand will decline by the largest volume in history in the first quarter, even exceeding the declines during the 2009 financial crisis.

That’s what IHS Markit expects, according to a new industry note, which was penned by the company’s vice presidents Jim Burkhard and Dan Evans, and its executive director Das Premasish.

20        Alberta to Provide $100MM Loan for Decommissioning Efforts
https://www.rigzone.com/news/alberta_to_provide_100mm_loan_for_decommissioning_efforts-05-mar-2020-161287-article/

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said the province is providing a $100 million government loan to the Orphan Well Association (OWA) that will create 500 jobs and ramp up investment in the region’s oil and gas sector. Kenney made the announcement earlier this week with energy minister Sonya Savage in Leduc, Alberta.

21        Coronavirus Hurts Middle East Economies Beyond Oil
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Coronavirus-Hurts-Middle-East-Economies-Beyond-Oil.html
The Middle East oil exporters are grappling with depressed demand in their key market, China, due to the coronavirus outbreak.

The economies of the Arab Gulf countries are feeling the double sting of a sizeable loss of oil demand in Asia and a plunge in oil prices as the markets fear a significant slowdown in global economic growth because of the outbreak.