Business Intelligence and Analytics 10

Friday, March 29, 2019

Business Intelligence and Analytics 10

1              Unlocking Value From Data Is Key To A Successful Digital Transformation
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markvenables/2019/03/28/unlocking-value-from-data-is-key-to-a-successful-digital-transformation/

For oil and gas digital transformation is not a project where you make a roadmap and have a defined finish line, which, once crossed, constitutes a company being digitalized. Digitalization is achieved by implementing hundreds of use cases in a scalable manner.

2              Why the biggest and best struggle to grow
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/why-the-biggest-and-best-struggle-to-grow

The largest, most successful companies would seem to be ideally positioned to create value for their shareholders through growth. After all, they command leading market and channel positions in multiple industries and geographies; they employ deep benches of top management talent utilizing proven management processes; and they often have healthy balance sheets to fund the investments most likely to produce growth.

3              Explaining how AI works for non-coders and non-mathematicians: Introduction Part 1
https://medium.com/@nishul1/ai-for-the-rest-of-us-part-1-cfe1087918a5

There is a huge amounts of hype swirling around today about AI. There is also a huge amount of discussion about it’s impact on society today and in the future. Yet — I’ve seen very little material explaining well how an AI actually works. How is an AI built? What does it actually do inside the black box?

4              Explaining how AI works for non-coders and non-mathematicians: An Example Part 2
https://medium.com/@nishul1/ai-for-the-rest-of-us-part-2-4f3bd8ac58bd

This is part 2 of a post that is seeking to explain AI in a way anyone can understand it. Part 1 had some background and introduction. This post has an example hopefully anyone can follow!

5              Logistic Regression in One Picture
https://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/logistic-regression-in-one-picture

Logistic regression is regressing data to a line (i.e. finding an average of sorts) so you can fit data to a particular equation and make predictions for your data. This type of regression is a good choice when modeling binary variables, which happen frequently in real life (e.g. work or don’t work, marry or don’t marry, buy a house or rent…). The logistic regression model is popular, in part, because it gives probabilities between 0 and 1.

6              3 Easy Use-cases – bitgrit Data Science Publication
https://medium.com/bitgrit-data-science-publication/from-0-to-ai-for-marketing-hero-3-easy-use-cases-dd8efbc14cbc

You’ve heard that AI is transforming marketing, but you may not know how to separate hype from real value. I’ll cover the 3 easiest, fastest, and most profitable AI use-cases to get started with. The main business metric in each of these is Return on Marketing Investment (ROMI).

7              The Deep Learning Toolset — An Overview
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2019/03/deep-learning-toolset-overview.html

Every problem worth solving needs great tools for support. Deep learning is no exception. If anything, it is a realm in which good tooling will become ever more important over the coming years.

8              Four steps for marketers to gain consumer trust | CMO Strategy
https://adage.com/article/cmo-strategy/steps-marketers-gain-consumer-trust/317158/

For brand marketers, the continuing challenges associated with privacy and data protection are not going away. As brands develop new policies and strategies, it’s critical to recognize the necessity of protecting the relationship with the brand’s consumer base.

9              AI in Digital Marketing — the bacon that just needs to be bought and eaten?
https://medium.com/@nele.dagefoerde/ai-in-digital-marketing-the-bacon-that-just-needs-to-be-bought-and-eaten-bec22616b009

Attending this week’s AI in Marketing conference in Zurich was not only inspiring for all the new things that are out there in Digital Marketing at the moment. Also, it showed the opportunities and challenges of today’s Digital Marketing.

10           Bias Variance Trade Off – Data Science Central
https://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/bias-variance-trade-off

Deep Learning is a highly empirical domain which majorly focusses on fine-tuning the various parameters. The choice of these parameters defines the accuracy of the model. So, it becomes important to choose such parameters wisely.

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 10

Friday, March 29, 2019

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 10

1              Will Chemicals Save The Downstream Sector?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/woodmackenzie/2019/03/26/will-chemicals-save-the-downstream-sector/

Chemicals are integral to modern urban life, from the packaging that keeps our food fresher for longer, to the carpets in our homes and offices, the casings of our phones and computers, to the vehicles we drive.

2              $200B+ Could Be Invested in US Petchems
https://www.rigzone.com/news/200b_could_be_invested_in_us_petchems-28-mar-2019-158481-article/

During the 15-year span from 2010 to 2025, the U.S. petrochemicals industry is on track to invest more than $200 billion in hundreds of projects, according to Wood Mackenzie.

3              Unlocking Value From Data Is Key To A Successful Digital Transformation
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markvenables/2019/03/28/unlocking-value-from-data-is-key-to-a-successful-digital-transformation/

For oil and gas digital transformation is not a project where you make a roadmap and have a defined finish line, which, once crossed, constitutes a company being digitalized. Digitalization is achieved by implementing hundreds of use cases in a scalable manner.

4              Technology Is A Huge Driver Of The U.S. Oil And Gas Boom
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2019/03/25/technology-is-a-huge-driver-of-the-u-s-oil-and-gas-boom/

In the world of oil and natural gas, engineers, geologists, and drilling and production departments tend to get the lion’s share of the credit when good things happen, and most of the blame when they don’t. That’s fair, given the crucial roles these groups of employees play within the thousands of companies that make up the U.S. oil and gas industry.

5              Chinese LNG Imports Drop As Winters Nears End
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Chinese-LNG-Imports-Drop-As-Winters-Nears-End.html

China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports increased in February compared to the same month last year, but fell from the record highs from January as the winter heating season approaches its end amid ample supplies in Asia.

6              Tight oil development will continue to drive future U.S. crude oil production – Today in Energy
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38852

(AEO2019) Reference case projects that U.S. tight oil production, which became the more common form of oil production in 2015, will continue to increase through 2030, ultimately reaching more than 10 million barrels per day (b/d) in the early 2030s. Tight oil production reached 6.5 million b/d in the United States in 2018, accounting for 61% of total U.S. production. EIA projects further U.S. tight oil production growth as the industry continues to improve drilling efficiencies and reduce costs, which makes developing tight oil resources less sensitive to oil prices than in the past.

7              Denmark asks Nord Stream 2 to assess third route option for gas pipeline
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gazprom-nordstream-2-denmark-idUSKCN1R916S

The Danish Energy Agency has requested an environmental assessment of a third route option for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Danish waters, a move that could delay the project to pump Russian gas to Europe.

8              Food and beverage industries need to get on board with Industry 4.0
https://www.profoodworld.com/articles/food-and-beverage-industry-needs-get-board-industry-40

Speaking at the ProFood Tech Innovation Zone yesterday, Sasha Ilyukhin from Tetra Pak said that the food and beverage industry needs to embrace a customer-centric environment by driving digital through an organizational transformation. “Digital transformation equals human transformation,” said Ilyukhin.

9              Saudi Aramco to buy SABIC in $69 billion chemicals megadeal
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-sabic-m-a-idUSKCN1R81QU

The world’s largest oil producer Saudi Aramco has agreed to buy a 70 percent stake in Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) from the kingdom’s wealth fund for $69.1 billion in one of the biggest deals in the global chemical industry.

10           European Parliament votes overwhelmingly to ban single-use plastics
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/eu-plastics-ban-1.5074053
Single-use plastic items such as straws, forks and knives will be banned in the European Union by 2021 following a vote by EU lawmakers on Wednesday.

11           Putting Alberta’s Future Energy Policies To The Test
https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2019/03/27/putting-albertas-future-energy-policies-to-the-test/
Last week, Alberta’s premier called an election in the Western Canadian province, following a years-long economic downturn due to depressed global oil prices — which has dominated discussions about the province’s energy and economic future. Albertans increasingly recognize that business as usual is not a likely road to continued prosperity with changing global economics, raising questions about how the province’s energy policies should reflect this shift.

12           North America LNG liquefaction capacity to see major boost in 2023
https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/27032019/north-america-lng-liquefaction-capacity-to-see-major-boost-in-2023/

According to GlobalData, North America is expected to add approximately 265 million tpy of LNG liquefaction capacity in 2023.

13           Kansas City Southern sees surging fuel-by-rail growth in Mexico
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-railways-idUSKCN1R801Z
The Mexican subsidiary of U.S. railroad operator Kansas City Southern expects its gasoline transport business to grow at least 15 percent by volume this year, and possibly much more, a senior executive said on Tuesday.

14           Pemex imports crude in February, despite president’s aversion
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-pemex-idUSKCN1R8046

Mexican state oil company Pemex imported crude oil in February despite the new president’s sharp criticism of the previous government’s authorization of foreign oil shipments, official data showed on Tuesday.

15           Report: Advanced Plastics Recycling Has Potential for $10 Billion Economic Output : Plastics Technology
https://www.ptonline.com/news/report-advanced-plastics-recycling-has-potential-for-10-billion-economic-output

If widely adopted, these processes could result in nearly 40,000 direct and indirect U.S. jobs, as much as $2.2 billion in annual payroll, and another $9.9 billion in direct and indirect economic output.

Business Intelligence and Analytics 9

Friday, March 22, 2019

Business Intelligence and Analytics 9

1              Top 7 Data Science Use Cases in Finance
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2018/05/top-7-data-science-use-cases-finance.html

In recent years, the ability of data science and machine learning to cope with a number of principal financial tasks has become an especially important point at issue. Companies want to know more what improvements the technologies bring and how they can reshape their business strategies.

2              Why people are essential to B2B marketing success
https://martechtoday.com/why-people-are-essential-to-b2b-marketing-success-231972

If you are sci-fi film buff, Charlton Heston’s desperate plea, “Soylent Green is people!” from the classic movie it’s dark, overwrought and partially in fun) is something today’s marketers should note. Your return on investment is dependent on people because people are essential to the modern B2B marketing strategy that actually drives real ROI.

3              What is Augmented Data Science and Why is it Important to My Business?
https://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/what-is-augmented-data-science-and-why-is-it-important-to-my-1

If Data Science was once the sole domain of analysts and data scientists, Augmented Data Science represents the democratized view of this domain. With Augmented Data Science, the average business user can engage with advanced analytics tools that allow for automated machine learning (AutoML) and leverage sophisticated analytical techniques and algorithms in a guided environment that uses auto-recommendations and suggestions to lead users through the complex world of data science with ease and intuitive tools.

4              Why is Customer Churn Persistently High Regardless of Companies’ Sustained Efforts?
https://www.business2community.com/customer-experience/why-is-customer-churn-persistently-high-regardless-of-companies-sustained-efforts-02179766

Regardless of their relentless efforts, brands across industries suffer from churn problems in today’s competitive world. As shown in the image below, one of the major reasons why customers leave the company turns out to be poor customer service.

5              5 Conversion Optimization Tactics that Also Drive Traffic
https://www.convinceandconvert.com/digital-marketing/conversion-optimization-tactics/

Conversion optimization doesn’t have to stand in a way of traffic acquisition. In fact, CRO and SEO are even more effective when combined. These two marketing channels can (and should!) effectively inform and empower each other.

Here are 5 ways to boost your conversions while increasing traffic to your site:

6              Minimize Your Digital Platforms
https://www.business2community.com/digital-marketing/minimize-your-digital-platforms-02181181

We have a hard time appreciating what drag does to our lives and work. If you’re used to sifting through your junk to find your clothes, notebooks, gadgets or everything to help you in a day, the friction may be lost on you. It’s become a habit that’s comfortable and unnoticeable over time.

7              10 Things Your Content Marketing Strategy Must Include
https://www.copyblogger.com/documented-content-strategy/

Here are my recommendations for 10 elements that make sense in a solid content marketing strategy. You may have additional thoughts, and I’d love to hear them in the comments!

8              The Ultimate List of Email Marketing Stats for 2019
https://blog.hubspot.com/marketing/email-marketing-stats

Nowadays, marketers put a lot of emphasis on chatbots, Instagram influencers, and other new opportunities to reach their customers.

But your contemporary communication methods shouldn’t distract you from one of the oldest and yet most effective messaging channels — email.

9              How to Automatically Determine the Number of Clusters in your Data – and more
https://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/how-to-automatically-determine-the-number-of-clusters-in-your-dat

Determining the number of clusters when performing unsupervised clustering is a tricky problem. Many data sets don’t exhibit well separated clusters, and two human beings asked to visually tell the number of clusters by looking at a chart, are likely to provide two different answers. Sometimes clusters overlap with each other, and large clusters contain sub-clusters, making a decision not easy.

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 9

Friday, March 22, 2019

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 9

1              Resin Pricing
https://www.plasticsnews.com/article/20190322/NEWS/190327645/pvc-pet-resin-prices-up-pp-down-in-february

North American commodity resins squeezed some action into the short month of February, with prices for PVC and PET bottle resin both going up, while polypropylene prices declined.

Regional PVC prices moved up an average of 2 cents per pound for the month, while PET ticked up 1 cent and PP slid 1.5 cents. Prices for all grades of polyethylene and solid polystyrene in the region were flat for the month.

2              US Emerging as a LNG Powerhouse
https://www.rigzone.com/news/us_emerging_as_a_lng_powerhouse-22-mar-2019-158435-article/

The LNG export market is projected to surge over the next three decades. Last month month, ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum announced that they will proceed with construction of the >$10 billion Golden Pass liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility on the Texas Gulf Coast. This project would export up to 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG, and is just one of more than 50 LNG export projects to be approved by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

3              US midstream boom gathers pace
https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/north-america/2019/us-midstream-boom-gathers-pace

The US midstream sector is on a building spree, connecting rapidly growing oil, gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) production to demand and export centres. Companies and analysts expect liquids and gas output in the prolific Permian, Bakken, and Marcellus/Utica shale regions to amply justify infrastructure already under construction. But they caution that the sector’s growth beyond 2021 faces challenges as projects compete for financing and new volumes, and the US refining sector further adjusts to the country’s light tight oil (LTO) and gas bonanza.

4              LyondellBasell technology selected by Lianyungang Petrochemical Co., Ltd.
https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/20032019/lyondellbasell-technology-selected-by-lianyungang-petrochemical-co-ltd/

LyondellBasell has announced that Lianyungang Petrochemical Co., Ltd (a company of Zhejiang Satellite) has selected Hostalen Advanced Cascade Process’ (Hostalen ACP) technology from LyondellBasell for a 400 000 tpy high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant to be built at Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, China.

5              Canada’s Natural Gas Crisis Is Going Under The Radar | OilPrice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Canadas-Natural-Gas-Crisis-Is-Going-Under-The-Radar.html

While Canada’s oil crisis has stolen much of the media spotlight in recent months, Canadian natural gas producers have been going through a similar predicament—not enough takeaway capacity amid growing production, and as a result, plunging domestic prices.

6              Two-Sided Trade in China Highlights Concerns Over Fed Policy, Trade Relations
https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/two-sided-trade-in-china-highlights-concerns-over-fed-policy-trade-relations-563326

The price action suggests traders will need a few more days and sessions to interpret the recent change in Fed positioning and to absorb the further developments with regard to trade and geo-political factors

7              Murphy Oil sells Malaysia assets to PTTEP for $2.1 billion, turns toward home
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-murphy-oil-malaysia-pttep-idUSKCN1R216S

Murphy Oil Corp is exiting Malaysia with a $2.13 billion sale of its oil and gas assets there to Thailand’s PTTEP and said it will use the proceeds to pay down debt, buy back shares and fund potential deals in the United States.

8              Braskem Moves Closer to Developing ‘Green’ PET: Plastics Technology
https://www.ptonline.com/blog/post/braskem-moves-closer-to-developing-green-pet

With Danish technology partner, Braskem has started up renewable MEG demonstration unit.

9              Mexico could pay Pemex debt from $15 billion stabilization fund
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-oil-idUSKCN1R303B

Mexico’s deputy finance minister said on Thursday the government was considering using part of a $15.4 billion public income stabilization fund to pay some debt obligations for heavily leveraged state oil company Pemex.

10           AMLO risks a fall as he tries to pull Pemex back from the brink
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/3/21/amlo-risks-a-fall-as-he-tries-to-pull-pemex-back-from-the-brink

Pemex is personal for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who grew up in Mexico’s oil heartland at a time when the state company was a source of national pride.

11           Japan LNG
https://www.naturalgasworld.com/japan-future-uncertainty-but-potential-upside-lng-condensed-68811

Japan is by far the world’s largest single LNG importer and has been the undisputed titan of the Asian LNG market for decades, its policies determining everything from industry investment models to contract terms and prices. So the projections in a recent study by the Institute for Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) make for sober reading. Not only does the IEEJ Outlook 2019 project that Japanese gas demand — all supplied by LNG – will fall in absolute terms from 117 bn m3 in 2016 to 96 bn m3 in 2050, but Japan’s share of overall Asian gas demand will plummet from 18% to 5.5% over the same period.

12           U.S. ‘’Oil Weapon’’ Could Change Geopolitics Forever
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/US-Oil-Weapon-Could-Change-Geopolitics-Forever.html

In a dynamic that shows just how far U.S. oil production has come in recent years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  said on Monday that in the last two months of 2018, the U.S. Gulf Coast exported more crude oil than it imported.

13           LNG Sector Dangerously Dependent On Chinese Demand
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/LNG-Sector-Dangerously-Dependent-On-Chinese-Demand.html

The liquefied natural gas industry has become too reliant on demand for the fuel from China, industry executives warned at last week’s CERAWeek, advising players in the LNG field to try and broaden their markets before they begin suffering the impact of this overreliance.

14           “Perfect Storm” Drives Oil Prices Higher
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Perfect-Storm-Drives-Oil-Prices-Higher.html

Oil prices have already hit four-month highs, forcing a range of analysts to overhaul their expectations for this year.

“The latest Brent rally has brought prices to our peak forecast of $67.5/bbl, three months early,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. The investment bank said that “resilient demand growth” and supply outages could push prices up to $70 per barrel in the near future.

15           OPEC: Members to restore market stability during 2019
https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/opec-members-to-restore-market-stability-during-2019/

OPEC said on Monday that the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) convened in Baku, Azerbaijan, for its thirteenth meeting on March 18. The Committee reviewed the monthly report prepared by its Joint Technical Committee (JTC) and recent developments in the global oil market as well as prospects for the remainder of 2019.

Business Intelligence and Analytics 8

Friday, March 8, 2019

Business Intelligence and Analytics 8

Next week is March Break in Ontario, I will be away from the office. No Newsletter

1              7 Advantages of Data-Driven Content
https://blog.searchmetrics.com/us/7-advantages-of-data-driven-content/

How can I improve my content’s search engine rankings? It’s a question all marketing experts ask and now it’s one that can be answered: with data-driven content optimization. While the success of online content used to be largely left to chance, it is now possible to impact results in a sustainable and targeted manner. From research and writing, all the way up to publication – every step of the content process can be tailored to meet the demands of search engine algorithms.

2              IAB: 78% of marketers will spend more on data in 2019
https://www.marketingdive.com/news/iab-78-of-marketers-will-spend-more-on-data-in-2019/549811/

Marketers plan to spend more on data and data-related services in 2019, according to findings of the report “The Outlook for Data 2019: A Snapshot Into the Evolving Role of Audience Insight” by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and consulting firm Winterberry Group, shared with Marketing Dive.

3              3 Tips for Taking Action from Your Website Data
https://www.searchenginejournal.com/website-data-taking-action/295881/

Data visualization is the act of taking information (data) and placing it into a visual context, such as a map or graph. Data visualizations make big and small data easier for the human brain to understand, and visualization also makes it easier to detect patterns, trends, and outliers in groups of data. Good data visualizations should place meaning into complicated datasets so that their message is clear and concise.

4              Market Segmentation – Refining Your Target Market
https://www.business2community.com/marketing/market-segmentation-refining-your-target-market-02174701

We spend a lot of time discussing how to select your target audience as part of creating an inbound marketing plan. Hopefully you know who your target audience is for your small business. But have you taken the time to further divide that target audience into smaller market segments?

5              B2B Tech Marketing Budget, Content & Strategy Trends
https://www.marketingprofs.com/charts/2019/40684/b2b-tech-marketing-in-2019-budget-content-and-strategy-trends

Most marketers who work for B2B technology firms expect their budgets to grow or stay the same this year, according to recent research from Spiceworks.  The report was based on data from a survey conducted in October 2018 among 352 marketers who work for B2B technology companies of various sizes in North America and Europe.

6              7 Psychological Triggers Every Marketer Should Master
https://www.business2community.com/marketing/7-psychological-triggers-every-marketer-should-master-02175062

Marketers can employ a number of techniques to drive people to take action — flashy design, catchy copy, celebrity endorsements, etc. But nothing is more effective than psychological triggers.

7              Another 10 Free Must-Read Books for Machine Learning and Data Science
https://www.kdnuggets.com/2019/03/another-10-free-must-read-books-for-machine-learning-and-data-science.html

Here’s a third set of 10 free books for machine learning and data science. Have a look to see if something catches your eye, and don’t forget to check the previous installments for reading material while you’re here.

8              What is kinetic typography? marketing
https://www.convinceandconvert.com/content-marketing/kinetic-typography-video-marketing/

Kinetic typography is a concept that involves using moving type to express an idea. Some of the most widely known examples of it appear in the opening credits of feature-length films.

9              Learn the Top Landing Page Best Practices from Marketo
https://blog.marketo.com/2019/03/3-next-level-landing-page-best-practices-for-2019.html

Landing pages are Marketing 101—or at least they should be. Top-notch marketers must know how to build compelling landing pages specially designed to convince customers to engage and convert.

10           Why the Key to AI Success is a Tidy Data House
https://tdwi.org/articles/2019/03/08/adv-all-key-to-ai-success-is-tidy-data-house.aspx

Despite all the talk about artificial intelligence (AI), adoption has yet to reach its pinnacle. Many organizations are taking smart steps to implement new technologies. Instead of buying into the hype, they ask critical questions to garner the strongest ROI, resulting in a delay in broad adoption.

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 8

Friday, March 8, 2019

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 8

Next week is March Break in Ontario, I will be away from the office. No Newsletter.

1              Oil drops 2 percent as economic outlook weakens, U.S. supply surges
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN1QP03Z

Oil prices dropped close to 2 percent on Friday on a worsening global economic outlook after the European Central Bank (ECB) warned of continued weakness and fresh data showed Chinese imports and exports slumped last month.

2              Weekly resin report: Processors anticipate another decrease in PP prices
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-processors-anticipate-another-decrease-pp-prices/42169694860381

Spot resin trading volumes eased back last week from the frantic pace seen during most of February, but the total tally was still above average, reports the PlasticsExchange (Chicago) in its weekly Market Update. Buyers continued to scoop up favorable polyethylene (PE) offers, while polypropylene (PP) processors only picked away as needed.

3              Forecasting The Oil Price For Fun And Profit (But Not Accuracy)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2019/03/05/forecasting-the-oil-price-for-fun-and-profit-but-not-accuracy/

Over twenty years ago, while in Norway, I showed a group of economists their government’s track record in forecasting national oil production: they consistently predicted a near-term peak and decline and had done so nearly since the beginning of production. At the time of my talk, production had grown regularly and did not appear to be slowing, suggesting that the forecasts needed to be revised.

4              Exxon Mobil sees 2020 capex rising by up to 16 percent
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-mobil-meeting-idUSKCN1QN1HI

Exxon Mobil Corp said on Wednesday it plans to open its wallet and increase capital spending by 10 percent to 16 percent next year, as the U.S. oil major looks to restore flagging oil and gas production despite investor pressures to boost returns.

5              New U.S. power plants expected to be mostly natural gas combined-cycle and solar PV
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38612

EIA’s long-term projections show that most of the electricity generating capacity additions installed in the United States through 2050 will be natural gas combined-cycle and solar photovoltaic (PV). Onshore wind looks to be competitive in only a few regions before the legislated phase-out of the production tax credit (PTC), but it becomes competitive later in the projection period as demand increases and the cost for installing wind turbines continues to decline.

6              U.S. Petroleum Exports May Surpass Saudis by Year-End: Rystad
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/commodities/

America’s booming oil production could set the stage for country’s total petroleum exports to surpass those of Saudi Arabia by end-2019, according to Rystad Energy AS.

7              Tracking the decoupling of electricity demand and associated CO2 emissions
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/march/tracking-the-decoupling-of-electricity-demand-and-associated-co2-emissions.html

Since 1990, the global CO2 intensity of electricity generation – that is, the amount of CO2 emissions created for each kWh of power generated – has remained broadly stable. Until the early 2010s, growth in CO2 emissions from electricity generation kept pace with electricity demand growth. However the last few years have shown a decoupling: electricity demand continues to rise, but emissions from power generation have begun to flatten.

8              Unlikely twins and differing fortunes: Malaysia’s Petronas & Indonesia’s Pertamina
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-petronas-pertamina-insight-idUSKCN1QO0GR

On the southernmost edge of the Asian landmass and on the shores of the busy shipping lanes of the Singapore Strait, Malaysia’s Petronas is starting up a state-of-the art petroleum processing hub, called RAPID.

9              Is This As Good As It Gets For Oil?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-As-Good-As-It-Gets-For-Oil.html
Crude oil prices have gone up twenty-seven percent from their Christmas week lows. Many analysts, company representatives, and OPEC officials see them rising further. The 1.2-million-barrels-per-day cut in oil production instituted in January by OPEC members and other countries (OPEC+) has encouraged these views.

10           U.S. LNG exports pick up, with Europe a major buyer
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lng-usa-idUSKCN1QO1KC

Shipments of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) have gathered pace in March and Europe is set to stay a top destination for spot cargoes with Asian prices still too low to ship the chilled fuel that far.

11           Exclusive: Rosneft postpones hydrocracking upgrade at five refineries: sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rosneft-upgrade-exclusive-idUSKCN1QO1GL

Russia’s Rosneft is postponing an upgrade of hydrocracking units at five of its refineries, meaning the company will continue paying higher export taxes on the heavy products they produce, three sources told Reuters on Thursday.

12           Chevron, Exxon take turns wooing investors with shale boasts
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chevron-outlook-idUSKCN1QM1GD

The two biggest U.S. oil companies tried to outdo each other on Tuesday, boasting about their prowess in shale to lure investors to their side.

13           S&P cuts Pemex credit rating as outlook sinks for other Mexican firms, banks
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-pemex-s-p-idUSKCN1QL1W8

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) on Monday slashed the credit rating for Mexico’s national oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, piling more pressure on the government to tighten up the debt-laden oil firm’s finances.

14           Why Oil And Gas Needs To Adopt A Silicon Valley State Of Mind
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markvenables/2019/02/28/why-oil-and-gas-needs-to-adopt-a-silicon-valley-state-of-mind/

The goal behind the digital oilfield is to optimize oilfield operations through the provision and implementation of data and analysis tools. These digital methodologies are becoming more common in logistics and machinery monitoring – areas that can be translated from other industries. However, the holy grail remains the provision of real-time, reliable production data.

15           Total buys 10 percent stake in Arctic LNG 2 project from Novatek
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-total-russia-novatek-idUSKCN1QM0PC

Total has agreed to buy a 10 percent stake in the Arctic LNG 2 project from Russia’s Novatek, as the French energy group looks to build up its presence in the area to service a fast-growing Asian market.

Business Intelligence and Analytics 7

Friday, March 1, 2019

Business Intelligence and Analytics 7

1              A beginner’s guide to Linear Regression in Python with Scikit-Learn
https://towardsdatascience.com/a-beginners-guide-to-linear-regression-in-python-with-scikit-learn-83a8f7ae2b4f?source=rss—-7f60cf5620c9—4&gi=32b13e3427c7

There are two types of supervised machine learning algorithms: Regression and classification. The former predicts continuous value outputs while the latter predicts discrete outputs. For instance, predicting the price of a house in dollars is a regression problem whereas predicting whether a tumor is malignant or benign is a classification problem.

2              3 Key Ways Big Data Is Changing Financial Trading
https://www.smartdatacollective.com/3-key-ways-big-data-is-changing-financial-trading/

Big data is one of the internet-oriented developments that have caused enormous impact across all industries over the last couple of decades. The term big data refers to the gigantic amounts of information constantly collected by websites and search engines as people continue to use the internet for diverse purposes. It consists of all kinds of data – numbers, text, images, tables, audio, video and any other possible type of information.

3              7 Jobs Humans Can Do Better Than Robots And AI
https://www.smartdatacollective.com/7-jobs-humans-can-do-better-than-robots-and-ai/

The rise of artificial intelligence or AI in the past decades has resulted in collective anxiety around the world. The common apprehension is that there will be massive loss of jobs as robots and computers eventually replace employees. The fear is not without some basis; after all, robots and computers have proven to be far better than humans at executing certain tasks. However, it must be noted that not all jobs will eventually be replaced by AI. So, what’s the secret to staying ahead and remaining employable? The answer lies in knowing both what AI is capable of doing better than humans and what humans are capable of doing better than AI.

4              3 reasons to add deep learning to your time series toolkit
https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/3-reasons-to-add-deep-learning-to-your-time-series-toolkit

The ability to accurately forecast a sequence into the future is critical in many industries: finance, supply chain, and manufacturing are just a few examples. Classical time series techniques have served this task for decades, but now deep learning methods—similar to those used in computer vision and automatic translation—have the potential to revolutionize time series forecasting as well.

5              Evolution of Automated Marketing Tools: Improving Customer Experience
https://blog.marketo.com/2019/02/continually-improving-the-customer-experience-the-evolution-of-automated-marketing-tools.html

Automated marketing tools have evolved over the last few decades, giving generations of marketers new and innovative ways to engage with their customers. That’s not going to stop anytime soon. Automated marketing technology continues to advance rapidly. And over the next few years, it’ll change the way people experience your brand and interact with your company.

6              Blockchain Post-Trade Platform Vakt Partners With Majority of North Sea Oil Market
https://cointelegraph.com/news/blockchain-post-trade-platform-vakt-partners-with-majority-of-north-sea-oil-market

Vakt, a Blockchain-based post-trade platform for oil, has signed up four new clients, according to a statement published on the platform’s website on Feb. 25.

As per Etienne Amic, Vakt’s recently appointed CEO, the company has partnered with four new clients prior to its official launch at International Petroleum Week, which starts in London today, Feb. 26.

7              5 Lead Generation Techniques for Small Businesses in 2019
https://blog.marketo.com/2019/02/5-lead-generation-techniques-for-small-businesses-in-2019.html

You’ve got a loyal following of delighted customers. Now it’s time to grow. But to do that, you need leads.

The question is, how do you go about getting them? What techniques and approaches will help you generate a consistent stream of leads this year and beyond?

8              PyTorch on Azure: Deep learning in the oil and gas industry | Blog
https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/pytorch-on-azure-deep-learning-in-the-oil-and-gas-industry/

Drilling for oil and gas is one of the most dangerous jobs on Earth. Workers are exposed to the risk of events ranging from small equipment malfunctions to entire off shore rigs catching on fire. Fortunately, the application of deep learning in predictive asset maintenance can help prevent natural and human made catastrophes.

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 7

Friday, March 1, 2019

Energy, Petrochemicals and Plastics 7

1              Commodity Resin Prices Bottom Out : Plastics Technology
https://www.ptonline.com/articles/prices-of-pp-ps-bottom-out

Flat-to-upward pricing trajectory predicted for the five highest-volume commodity resins.

Higher global crude-oil prices, firming prices of key feedstocks, higher export volumes in some cases, and a rebound in demand in some other cases, are key drivers in projections for flat to at least slightly higher prices ahead for PE, PP, PS, PVC, and PET.

2              Oil prices steady, supported by OPEC tightening supplies
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN1QI39Q

Oil prices were broadly steady on Friday as surging U.S. supply and concerns of a global economic slowdown were offset by falling OPEC output. International Brent crude futures were at $66.39 per barrel at 1231 GMT, up 8 cents from Thursday’s settlement. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $57.38 per barrel, up 16 cents.

3              Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-eia-report-to-show-much-larger-than-normal-withdrawal-555141

We’re looking at strength ahead of the EIA report, which could be an indication that investors are betting on a larger-than-estimated draw. This could trigger a short-covering spike to the upside. The early rally could also be indicating a bullish change in the weather pattern overnight.

4              The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry | OilPrice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-32-Trillion-Fund-Transforming-The-Oil-Industry.html

Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).

5              Design for Recycled Content Guide
https://recycledcontent.org/

Creating more sustainable packaging requires a multifaceted strategy to address an array of environmental considerations across the packaging life cycle. A key element of any sustainable packaging strategy is to ensure materials are effectively recovered at the end of their useful life to provide new inputs for industrial or biological cycles.

6              EIA expects stable U.S. biofuels production, consumption, and trade through 2020 – Today in Energy
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38532

In its February 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that several recent trends in U.S. biofuels markets will continue through 2020. In the STEO, production of fuel ethanol and net imports of biomass-based diesel stay unchanged, while net exports of fuel ethanol decline modestly. Federal mandates and state programs continue to support biofuel consumption through 2020, however, biofuels remain a relatively small share of total U.S. liquid transportation fuels supply.

7              While Politics Dominates The News, Big Oil Invests In Global Energy Reality
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2019/02/25/while-politics-dominates-the-news-big-oil-invests-in-global-energy-reality/

One of the big concerns during the depths of the oil price bust of 2014-2016 was the fact that so many big, integrated and state-run oil companies were delaying or taking a full pass on investing in major and highly-costly international projects. During the financial retrenchment of this dark period, exploration for major new resources consistently took a back seat to finding ways to pay the bills and service the company’s debt.

8              Dutch prosecutors target Shell over Nigeria oil deal
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shell-nigeria-idUSKCN1QI3TZ

Dutch prosecutors are preparing criminal charges against Royal Dutch Shell over the $1.3 billion acquisition of an Nigerian offshore oilfield, ramping up pressure on the energy firm that already faces bribery charges in Italy over the case.

9              Encana layoffs amount to roughly 470 jobs across Canadian and American operations
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/encana-job-cuts-newfield-1.5037861

The CEO of Encana Corp. says it cut its total workforce by 15 per cent and reduced its ranks of executives by 35 per cent in just over a week after closing its deal to buy U.S. rival Newfield Exploration Co. in mid-February.

10           Even China may not be able to soak up all 2019’s new LNG: Russell
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-russell-lng-china-idUSKCN1QH0KL
Not even China’s voracious appetite for liquefied natural gas may be enough to absorb the additional supplies hitting the market this year, with the price of the super-chilled fuel potentially a casualty.

11           Why Canada needs better information about all the energy it produces
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-energy-data-1.5027115

A lack of information about Canada’s energy sector has long been an issue for those trying to gauge how the system is working — from analysts to economists to public policy researchers.

12           Global Oil Plows Billions Into Solar & Energy Storage
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/27/global-oil-plows-billions-into-solar-energy-storage/

Global oil companies are plowing billions of dollars per year into solar and into energy storage, as more nations seek to switch their energy sources away from fossil fuels. In only 5 out of 15 acquisition deals done in solar over the past two years, over $8 billion was spent, according to an analysis by Mercom Capital Group.

13           Against The Odds, Big Oil Doubles Down On Megaprojects | OilPrice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Against-The-Odds-Big-Oil-Doubles-Down-On-Megaprojects.html

The global oil industry is expected to ratchet up spending on new oil and gas projects this year, with the number of new final investment decisions (FIDs) soaring compared to the past few years.

14           Shell: Global LNG supply to rise by 35 million tonnes in 2019
https://www.lngworldnews.com/shell-global-lng-supply-to-rise-by-35-million-tonnes-in-2019/

Strong demand for cleaner-burning fuel in Asia continued to drive rapid growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) use in 2018, with global demand rising by 27 million tonnes to 319 million tonnes, according to Shell’s latest annual LNG Outlook.

15           ExxonMobil Beaumont Contract Goes to KBR | Rigzone
https://www.rigzone.com/news/exxonmobil_beaumont_contract_goes_to_kbr-26-feb-2019-158248-article/

ExxonMobil Corp. has awarded KBR, Inc. a reimbursable contract to provide detailed engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services for the offsites and interconnecting units as part of the supermajor’s refinery expansion in Beaumont, Texas, KBR reported Monday.